Rumour of my death have been greatly exaggerated...

Below is the latest Market Commentary by the head of Residex.

He expects a soft landing for the market...
"It seems that the warnings which have been widely publicised and coming from the Reserve Bank are at last being heeded and having an impact on our market. Sales information, discussion with real estate agents and auctioneers, and inquiry levels from investors into our office would indicate a slowing and more cautious market. The hoped-for soft landing looks set to eventuate. Statistical evidence is strengthening our reported view that the peak growth period in this housing cycle was in about June 2002.

An immediate reaction to the above might be one of disappointment and caution, if you were about to invest and, in fact, may lead to some removing themselves from the market. In our view, the soft landing is good news and it points to a better market for investors, in that investors will be more likely to be able to obtain more sensibly priced investments. We should all remember that house and land values, due to land shortages, are extremely unlikely to fall and there are probably only going to be increasing prices from here, albeit, at lower levels than we've seen in the recent past."
Reference: Residex Newsletter October '03
To subscribe go to: http://www.residex.com.au/subscribe/subscribe.php

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Hi AceyDucey,
Notice how in the Residex update this month John says that they will have a new TV show on the Lifestyle Channel (Fox and Optus)...another property show to watch !!! (start November) - similar to the saturday morning radio show on 2UE.
Cool !!
 
Yes, thanks Acey.

I quite enjoyed reading that.

Comparisons between the two are problematic - in fact I really shouldn't be making them - but the message from Residex is a little different to that of BIS.

Residex is, as I understand it, a sectoral analysis. BIS, on the other hand, is a macroeconomic analysis.

However, if Residex are right and the major property markets do become more tempered then the pressure on the RBA to increase interest rates is certainly reduced (rates most likely still go up, but not by as much as they would if the property market kept on going into the stratosphere).

Nonetheless these are, as I said in another post recently, delicate times for the economy.

As always, it will be interesting to see what transpires.

MB
 
I went to a new land release today (they were offering land tenders). It was released by Australand. All I can say is, the turn up of people wanting to buy was dissapointing. Add to this, the sales were also very disspointing. Not even half of the land there was sold. (There was only about 12-14 pieces of land for sale).

700m2 = $240,000 - $250,000 (within 5mins of CBD on the Gold Coast)

Is this an indiciation that people are getting wary and scared and thus do not want to buy and build?
 
Maybe it's an indication that building costs are too high - or that people need a home to live in NOW due to rental shortages.

If you price the land plus the cost of building a new home plus all the stress of the process do you make a profit over buying an existing structure?

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Yep! Similar homes like this are priced at 600,000+. To build would cost $500K. Instant savings of $100,000.

But the builders have told me it will take 10 months. (general is 6 months but due to this boom, things are getting delayed.. e.g. council approvals, supplies)
 
np2003,

I don't quite follow...

Land cost: $250K
Build cost: $500K
TOTAL: $750K

Similar homes priced at $600K+

Where's the profit?

Maybe people are getting smarter.....

Definitely building costs are too high - if you can build an absolutely HUGE home with top-of-the-line fittings as on Location, Location a month or so ago in Sydney for $300K (it was often mistaken for a shopping centre) - why pay $500K for a smaller house? :)

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
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