Sale now on!

50, 60, 70% off!!! All must go! *sounds of glass breaking* Craazy prices! Be there!

But wait, there's more! Because we love our customers, we may extend our sale until 2009! Maybe even 2010! Lots of time to save up and buy! What a deal! AIG You've done it again! Go go Lehman, go Lehman Brothers go!

Sorry but is anyone else seeing the current turmoil as an opportunity to purchase shares in solid businesses at knock-down prices? Sure prices will probably go nowhere (or perhaps lower) for the next year or two but isn't it great that if that does happen then there is quite a long time for us to be shopping? Obviously not for people who are at or are close to retirement, or those who will need to use their money in the near future but for those with 20 or 30 investment years ahead it sure looks like a fabulous opportunity.

When it comes to experience I am an infant (only been investing for 10 years) so please take my words with a grain of salt, but I have not seen shares this cheap before (for ex: in terms of price/earnings or price/book). Solid companies with consistent earnings records and no debt are being sold at low single digit pe's. Growth companies that are dominant in their field and have consistently grown earnings at the high teens to low twenties and that were once being traded at pe's of greater than 50 or 60 are now trading at pe's in the 20s. Companies with net cash positions are trading at less than NTA. Even the millionaire factory is getting priced close to its book value. With that said, I'm not saying one should jump in with both hands and buy. Of course with the current sentiment it is a good idea to exercise caution. Perhaps a little cherry picking here and there would be more appropriate. Drip-feed, as the DCA-ers would say. What's the rush, we have a long time to do our research.

As WB says, "Price is what you pay, value is what you get". Prices are falling like there's no tomorrow, but is this creating good value out there?
 
didn't we say the same thing in Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr? and prices kept plumeting further.

I guess you haven't been burnt badly enough?
 
First invest in a theoretical pair of these:

frame_armour_mail_gloves.jpg
 
the world is deleveraging. earnings aren't going to be the same next year, nor the assets that make up book value.

yeah there'll be an oversell......happening with commodities right now.

personally, i am waiting for a bottom in oil.
 
the world is deleveraging. earnings aren't going to be the same next year, nor the assets that make up book value.

yeah there'll be an oversell......happening with commodities right now.

personally, i am waiting for a bottom in oil.


Yes but deleveraging doesnt effect everything.
examples:
SAI, COH, CSL, HIL

Unfortantely i currently only picked up COH at about $45. I wasnt fast enough on SAI, CSL was still too expensive even when it dropped, and ive only rececently been researching HIL.

Still like i have been saying all year, the market comprises a number of individual companies all of whom have different characteristics. To put a blanket statement that now is not the time to buy stocks per sei is the same as those property D&G's who we all bag.

Currently ive got 30% of my stocks above purchase cost (on today's dismal prices:confused:) by dollar averaging, by ignoring trends and concentrating on company fundamentals. Sure 70% are currently below purchase price, but then we are seeing multi year lows (especially for industrial shares which is where i concentrate).

Overall year to date the return before borrowings is around -gv10%. And this is after accounting for my stupid investment in BnB which i disposed of a while ago, but still taught me a good lesson. IF YOU DONT UNDERSTAND THE STOCK DONT GET INVOLVED REGARDLESS OF WHAT RESEARCH ANALYSTS SAY.:mad:
 
Gotta love the bearishness :) It certainly is not fashionable to be a bull these days...

Perhaps I haven't been burned badly enough but hey, the Woolies stock I bought hasn't fallen off the cliff and people still come to shop. People are still flying around which has helped my FLT report record TTVs and earnings. The Cochlear shares I got in the 40's at a lovely (relatively) low PE of 20+ reported a nice growth in both unit sales and earnings. Thankfully these have helped keep my portfolio chugging along, offsetting the not so happy shares (at least price-wise) of MQG, PTM and WBC. But hey can't win 'em all, right?

The fact of the matter is I was happy at the time I made purchases in all the shares I hold in my portfolio. Whether their prices now are up or down from that time is irrelevant for 2 reasons: (1) because the reason I bought into them continues to be true today and (2) I have no plans of exiting my stake in these businesses. As part owner of these businesses, getting the opportunity to add to my stake at discount prices naturally excites me.

Jan Somers advocates buy and never sell for property. Warren Buffett advocates the same for shares. Good enough for me :)
 
Gotta love the bearishness :) It certainly is not fashionable to be a bull these days...

Perhaps I haven't been burned badly enough but hey, the Woolies stock I bought hasn't fallen off the cliff and people still come to shop. People are still flying around which has helped my FLT report record TTVs and earnings. The Cochlear shares I got in the 40's at a lovely (relatively) low PE of 20+ reported a nice growth in both unit sales and earnings. Thankfully these have helped keep my portfolio chugging along, offsetting the not so happy shares (at least price-wise) of MQG, PTM and WBC. But hey can't win 'em all, right?

The fact of the matter is I was happy at the time I made purchases in all the shares I hold in my portfolio. Whether their prices now are up or down from that time is irrelevant for 2 reasons: (1) because the reason I bought into them continues to be true today and (2) I have no plans of exiting my stake in these businesses. As part owner of these businesses, getting the opportunity to add to my stake at discount prices naturally excites me.

Jan Somers advocates buy and never sell for property. Warren Buffett advocates the same for shares. Good enough for me :)


Wow Earnie, we think along nearly identical lines. It great to hear from another investor that actually takes the time to actually try to evaluate the underlying value of a business and ignore all the market noise.
I bought FLT during June & July as well.
 
So long as you are not overly leveraged and you actually take the time to understand the underlying companies of the shares you are buying, you are actually much 'safer' buying during depressed times.
Just look at the number of retail investors who have been seriously burnt allocating super top ups before June 30 2007.
 
Hi chilliaa,

Was fortunate enough to have forced myself (it took a heck of a lot, too) to buy FLT back in late 05 for the fantastic price of 9.99. Added to the pile a few more times at slightly higher but still lovely prices but my last buy via the spp at 23.50 isn't looking too hot at the moment. If the market storm continues to depress the share price I will be adding to my pile again.

One I've been watching and have been waiting for the price to come down is Invocare. They certainly won't be running out of customers anytime soon :p Still expensive at the moment considering their modest eps growth, but a nice solid business methinks.
 
Last edited:
Hi chilliaa,

Was fortunate enough to have forced myself (it took a heck of a lot, too) to buy FLT back in late 05 for the fantastic price of 9.99. Added to the pile a few more times at slightly higher but still lovely prices but my last buy via the spp at 23.50 isn't looking too hot at the moment. If the market storm continues to depress the share price I will be adding to my pile again.

One I've been watching and have been waiting for the price to come down is Invocare. They certainly won't be running out of customers anytime soon :p Still expensive at the moment considering their modest eps growth, but a nice solid business methinks.

Yes invocare is in very nice industry: death and taxes, well at least they have got 50% of it right:D

Just be a bit careful with this stock, they are quite heavily leveraged, used their last few years to acquire other funeral parlers when their PE ratio was high (refer to my other posting regarding Alesco).
However in INVOCARE's situation they do have much better barriers to entry than Alesco. There was also quite heavy insider selling (but at higher prices to the current market price).

Ive got it on my watch list, but im waiting for the price to hit around $4.50 before i make my first purchase.
 
regarding fundamentals, someone once said:

"fundamentals!!! puh... In a bull market you don't need em, and in bear market you don't want to hear about em"

a lot of truth in it if you think about it. most bull and bear 'market' movement is a result of sentiment, not careful company valuation. Weaker companies get carried along with stronger companies.
 
Overall year to date the return before borrowings is around -gv10%. And this is after accounting for my stupid investment in BnB which i disposed of a while ago, but still taught me a good lesson. IF YOU DONT UNDERSTAND THE STOCK DONT GET INVOLVED REGARDLESS OF WHAT RESEARCH ANALYSTS SAY.:mad:


spot on - watch the stock, know how it reacts to different market news. know when the retracement occurs after a sell off or bull run. understand the fundamentals and research how the shortcomings / exceedings affected the shareprice and what you can expect should the same occur.

buy near support, know your dividend dates, watch the option prices for an idea on sentiment.

there's a lot more to stock investing that just taking a punt on a tip. that's gambling, not investing.
 
All Ords down another 117 points to 4651. Macquarie Group down 23% to just over 26. MQG now at a current PE of 4. Amazing stuff.

If you like looking at charts, try this (I am using comsec):
Chart: XAO
Time Period: All Data
Frequency: Monthly
Type: OHLC Bar (bar chart)
Price Indicators: Exponential Moving Average
Moving Average: 120 (10 year)

What do you think? I'd attach the chart myself but I haven't worked out how to do that yet. Help anyone?
 
Will this do Earnie?

xao.gif

Took another bite at the Big Silver Donut today. Will be interesting to see if it proves to be a good long term bet or whether the money would have been better used to buy a long term supply of beer!
 
Last edited:
I bought 575 nab shares a few weeks ago 1 cent off the bottom at $23.40, going to go back and buy another $10k of them tomorrow leveraged @ about 60%, hopefully i can still get them for under $20.

I'm happy to ride out the storm, i'd be more concerned if the things that have caused the US banks so much trouble were rampant is Australia. I stil think the Big 4 will be right and will give some nice yeilding divedends in the future.

I just wished I sold mine last week at 25.00 and then could have rebought, but hey that what gets you in trouble, i'm in for the long hall.
 
Hey thanks for that austini. What do you reckon? Think the EMA is pointing to a bottoming out at 4000-ish? Even if we keep the EMA slope from 2003 going (basically ignoring the last boom period) we'd be looking at around 3700-3800. Doesn't seem so far away now.

Plenty of value out there for the brave, bold, or just plain dumb. Waiting for the dust to settle on MQG before I throw a few pennies at it to make sure it is still alive (unlike BNB which is probably already a zombie). Got my eye on a few others as well that have been swept by the market tide. Decisions, decisions...
 
I bought 575 nab shares a few weeks ago 1 cent off the bottom at $23.40...

I just wished I sold mine last week at 25.00 and then could have rebought, but hey that what gets you in trouble, i'm in for the long hall.

Hi letiha,

First off, congratulations on your first share purchase. Been following your thread :)

Not sure why you wish you sold at 25. If you're in it for the long term, why sell and repurchase? Selling then repurchasing costs money (brokerage and taxes) and that will lower your rate of return.

Best of luck on your future purchases!
 
Back
Top