So you're predicting a significant price correction in Adelaide due to the unemployment rate?
Somersoft leading indicator through the roof
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So you're predicting a significant price correction in Adelaide due to the unemployment rate?
Boom was predicted for brissy last year, but it has not happened, its fizzed off, I dont think it will happen in 2015 either, unemployment and the ecomony in this State I believe is the issue
Melb and Syd seem to still have some steam
No, but I don't think the unemployment rate in SA has peaked yet (trending higher) and I think a price boom is unlikely with the existing weak economic conditions (which are likely to get worse before they get better). IMO best case is probably another year or two with prices grinding sideways (below inflation) in Adelaide.
If this is the case, how do you view the significant current upward trend which has happened in many parts of Adelaide in the last 6-12 months whilst the unemployment rate has risen at the same time?
it's counter intuitive hey? at the end of a very prolonged period of prosperity in this country and now facing severe economic headwinds we are having a property boom. is it hot cash coming off the shock market? or is property just the best dog out of the pack. Regardless, if you lock at generic buy and hold stocks, property, cash.... none of them look great in this environment. The main concern is average people that just want somewhere to live that are buying at these prices - could end in tears
Here is an article which I posted some time back, give's an overview
http://news.domain.com.au/domain/re...operty-market-didnt-boom-20141105-11h4iz.html
For those interested in Brissy, not terribly exciting
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertyma...om-the-2015-january-market-report-194809.aspx
Outlook: What?s ahead
In recovery and with growth on the cards, Queensland is generating increasingly positive commentary. Yet there is still a degree of hesitancy from the experts when it comes to discussion of the property markets.
One reason for this could be that predicted price growth in Brisbane is expected to continue to be moderate. This means it won?t get the same spectacular growth as seen in Sydney and Melbourne recently.
Wilson says Brisbane is starting to rise after being behind the pack for the last 12 to 18 months, and is now in catch-up mode. The city will see real growth, but he believes it will be moderate.
?We?re not going to see a boom situation, such as double-digit growth, in this market. I would pick growth of 7?10%, probably 7%. It depends on where the local economy is going ? and they?re still relatively underperforming ? plus there?s also a state election coming up.?
Unemployment is rising, same in Canberra. Auction clearance rates in Brisbane are lower than Adelaide.
This site is supposed to be for experts, not speculators! "It's got to be next." doesn't sound very scientific does it
Dead cat bounce + a bit of a kick in the pants from lower interest rates + some out of state investors.
Do you think that house prices are completely divorced from the economic conditions of their locale?
...when euphoria kicks in like we have in Sydney now? I would say yes.
otherwise, not at all.
otherwise, not at all.
Well it's not cash getting out of the stock market. It's booming too. CBA at $90! I've had one of the best few months I can ever remember with SRX and RHC going nuts.
See ya's.
And more job cuts in Brisbane, Dalby Chinchilla and Roma:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/busin...239152115?sv=da78923e320bed36dc9a77c289d9ac46
Perhaps?? Eventually Brissy will boom because it will be considered so cheap compared to other capital cities?? which is the case I guess at the moment? But I don't see a rising market yet??
MTR
At times yes , in particular when it's a smaller market being influenced by larger markets .
Historically Sydney moves first and the the rest follow .
In the previous cycle , I had several patients , who sold their Mt Druitt houses for high prices who went and bought elsewhere , which was one part of the reason why those places moved .
You also have the contagion effect , it's catching , lots of hype about Sydney , you get a few people from Sydney melb buy in Adelaide and people start talking , watching . Some buy and that moves the market a bit and so it goes .
I saw it up close and personal last cycle in particular in rocky .
Cliff
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