South pacific sea levels data summary report
- Thread starter devank
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as a non-scientist why are you so quick to make up your mind? You're absolutely convinced aren't you? To be honest i haven't really made up my mind about ice cores. I've been reading about them for 5 minutes. Here's another paper i'm reading. It's a line of enquiry. The authors don't seem to be backing up your interpretation of their results however.
i have made up my mind that there are many unanswered questions, that's all - it can't be denied any longer that agw evidence is weak and in many cases just doesn't stack up.
Re the other questions, i posted a couple of articles a while back that provide some evidence that the pause is related to sst in the equatorial pacific (as well as an otherview of some other competing explanations). I wouldn't say that warming has stopped. It has slowed considerably. Pauses have happened before, the link is still statistically significant.
even the ipcc has admitted that it has paused. They did not predict this would happen. They do not know what has caused it. They do not know how long it will last.
Lots of scientists in support for agw are giving different reasons for it, but the facts remain (see previous sentence).
research is ongoing.
is that because the science is not settled.
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I agree that the global climate system is complex and research is ongoing but there's a difference between refinement and throwing a theory out.
The pause is not outside what has been experienced in the past. Those pauses didn't invalidate climate change, neither does this one.
Where would you say the AGW research has gone wrong (since you've made that assertion)?
The ice core research is an interesting story. You should take a look and draw your own conclusions. I don't really think this research is as biased as you like to make out. These workers are genuinely trying to answer these types of questions.
Amazing Photos. Did you know that this is all caused by global warming.? The President of USA said so, so it must be true. If we get any more global warming we are all going to freeze to death!
I don't know what is causing it but I do 'feel' that weather is getting weirder. We are facing more and more natural disasters. Very often we are hearing 'highest' or 'lowest' in 100 years statements.
A useful video here explains the weather event that results in cold air escaping from the Polar region. It's from the UK describing similar events 12 months ago. I have read that there is little blocking during the current event so it should pass soon.
Sudden stratospheric warming
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20998895
Are we seeing more natural disasters? This is an interesting analysis of the latest IPCC report presented to the US senate by a believer in AGW. We also know from the BOM that there has been no increase in frequency or intensity of cyclones in Australia.
http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/in...Store_id=a6df9665-e8c8-4b0f-a550-07669df48b15
That's right - 100 years....and even longer sometimes. Makes me laugh.
Many of the record breaking temp/rain/wind or whatever weather days we see on the news are from a record set 100 years ago and more. They actually tell you the date.
For anyone on this forum over the age of 50, I speak for them.
Some in this age bracket may disagree if they've been living in a box since 1961 and earlier, but from my experience the weather is no different to when I was a kid of about 5 when things such as weather became a thing of consciousness in one's life....
The natural disaster events were happening then, and are still happening now. Nothing new here folks; move on please...move on.
The Bangladesh flood;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Bhola_cyclone
Just one example.
People focus on the here and now so much it drives you mad.
In my past life of golf (and now the auto industry), I have to and have had to speak to many, many people day in and day out for over 30 years from behind the counter/s.
I can guarantee that every single year in Nov, if we had a day or two in a row in the early 30's (which from my experience has been happening my whole life) I would have to endure on a daily basis the golfers/car owners coming in and saying shoit like "What's happening with the weather?" or - my personal all time "AAAAAGHFAAARKOFF!" statement - "We're gunna have a long/hot Summer!"
And then in March we'd get a sever rain blast with some cold air (standard Southerly cold front
), and they'd be trotting out "What's happening with this weather?" and - you guessed it - "We're gunna have a long cold winter!" OMG! It's happening RIGHT NOW... that never happened before!
Look, I'm not saying GW isn't occurring - it might be; but if it is, it is so minuscule a variation in the larger scheme it is negligible. Two summers ago we had a massive bushfire one day in Vic, followed by snow the next. I mean; seriously?! Big deal, so what, and let's go eat our Xmas pudding. That's summer in vic.
I'm not saying CC can't occur - it happens every 5 mins, but to suggest that we humans cause is it farcical.
All we are guilty of is clearing the planet of animals - sharks and whales thanks to the Japanese, fish in general thanks to the whole human population and other wild life due to farming and human expansion at a rate of knots across the planet.
Biggest flood we ever had here was 1954, TC will check that for me please.
My recollections are that the last 5 or 6 summers here have been the coolest on average over my lifetime (51yrs). Sure the odd hot days in there, but we are talking Summer.
Early 2000's summers were bloody hot, way hotter than this decade that's for sure. Im expecting a drought, have been for a decade now and it hasnt come...yet. Looks like one shaping up right now, but just 30lkms south of me is TC's farm and he's in lush mode after having huge rains that we just missed by a whisker.
Go figure. Swings and roundabouts, hits and misses, just like normal.
My recollections are that the last 5 or 6 summers here have been the coolest on average over my lifetime (51yrs). Sure the odd hot days in there, but we are talking Summer.
Early 2000's summers were bloody hot, way hotter than this decade that's for sure. Im expecting a drought, have been for a decade now and it hasnt come...yet. Looks like one shaping up right now, but just 30lkms south of me is TC's farm and he's in lush mode after having huge rains that we just missed by a whisker.
Go figure. Swings and roundabouts, hits and misses, just like normal.
Yep, not 54 it was 55. Pictures of the creek lapping the steps of the Federal Hotel in Quirindi. Thats big...
How much rain have you had this summer so far TC?
we have had 22ml in Dec and zero in Jan.
I'll repost from page 2 just incase you missed it BV?
Incredibly, the hottest temp ever recorded on planet earth since modern recording methods were standardised was set 100 years ago! 1913!
Australia.
Hottest. Oodnadatta............ Jan 1960. 50.7 degrees.
Coldest. Charlotte Pass........ June 1994. -23 degrees.
Wettest. Crohanhurst QLD.... Feb 1893. 907 mills in one day. 1893 saw the Brisbane floods that were metres higher than the 1974 and 2011 floods, and it happened 3 times. There was an even bigger flood in 1841. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1893_Brisbane_flood
Dryest. I don't need to look this up. The droughts of the 1940s were way worse than any in recent times. As were the droughts in the USA in the 30s that caused the dust bowl half decade.
Global.
Hottest. Death Valley USA.................1913. 56.7 degrees.
Coldest. Vostok Station Antarctica......1983. -89.2 degrees.
Wettest. Foc-Foc, Runion,..................1966 1825 mm in one day, 7?8 January 1966
Wettest, Cherrapundi. India...............1860. 26,470 mm in one year.
See ya's.
Yep, not 54 it was 55. Pictures of the creek lapping the steps of the Federal Hotel in Quirindi. Thats big...
How much rain have you had this summer so far TC?
we have had 22ml in Dec and zero in Jan.
We've done OK. Had 250 mills Nov, probably 50 mills Dec and none for Jan, but I couldn't be sure as I'm on hols on the GC. Everything looks good though and still a heap of stored soil water.
See ya's.
Yep. Gotcha Bigblu. So it would be sort of like cheery picking data? OK.
Next time your talking to the climate dudes in CSIRO, ask em how the climate change observational datasets were decided? It seems to me that the obvious thing to do would be to have as many sites as possible? More the merrier I'd have thought? So any site with a decent historical set of info, bung it on? That's excluding big city sites due to urban heat island effects of course.
Seems to be some inconsistancies with the picked sites. I posted this stuff on the other thread that got locked. You never saw it as you were not on here at the time. So I'll put it up again. This is just one area I've picked. There are much more like it.
It is max temp datasets. All info and charts from the BOM. One lot of datasets used is the Gunnedah resource centre. [I'm sure that's supposed to be research centre]
OK. Hardly a perfect set of historical numbers. Only goes back 60 years or so? And some missing info scattered about.
Yet there are plenty of other sets of info that weren't used but could have been used I'd have thought? Like The Gunnedah pool site?
This one also has missing info. But no worse than the one used for the climate change data sets? And this one has info from 130 years ago. You would ignore info from earlier than 1910, before the Stevenson screen was introduced.
What about info from some other nearby towns that haven't been used?
Coonabarabran.
This is a perfect set of info. 130 years of figures, and unlike the official Gunnedah site that was picked out to be used, there is no missing info. Once again, ignore info earlier that 1910 before the Stevenson screen.
I could go on and on here with perfect datasets that haven't been used, and then other datasets that have missing info, and have been used. All this is on BOM. Everything, Charts and all.
I'd be interested in finding out why certain datasets were used and others not?
The climate change data sets that are used are on this map,
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=site-networks
See ya's.
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I'm still thinking about the relationship between CO2 and global atmospheric warming. Here are some more studies. So we have the models, the detection and attribution studies, the polar ice cores. Here's some summaries:
The authors of the first paper estimate the individual contributions of the various forcings (e.g. solar, volcanic, greenhouse gases) to the increase in average global surface temperature. In each case, they found that the greenhouse gas-global warming signal was statistically significant.
The next paper looks at the sun?s influence on global climate changes over the past 1,000 years. As in the first paper they used regression approach to conclude volcanic and GHG seem to contribute most to pre-twentieth-century climate variability, whereas the contribution by solar forcing is modest, agreeing with the simulations with low solar forcing." This study finds the sun is unlikely to have caused more than 0.15?C of the observed approximately 1?C warming over the past 300 years. They conclude that humans are the dominant cause of recent global warming. They do note that while the sun has little impact on average hemispheric and global temperatures, it does have an influence on regional temperatures.
The third paper examines the role that clouds will play in the sensitivity of the global climate to the increased greenhouse effect. We know that a doubling of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will cause a bit more than 1?C global surface warming. There are several feedbacks that amplify that warming i.e the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. We also know that melting ice makes the planet less reflective, causing it to absorb more sunlight, also amplifying global warming. However, an increase in cloud cover in response to global warming would reflect more sunlight back out to space, thereby cooling the Earth and offsetting some of those positive warming feedbacks. You can draw your own conclusions on their findings.
Topcropper, I would say that the average 0.8C average warming hasn't occurred at those sites. You would need to look at local conditions to understand why. i.e Perth gets cooler winter nights now due to clearer skys. The climate is a complex beast. Are you suggesting that globally it's not getting hotter?
The authors of the first paper estimate the individual contributions of the various forcings (e.g. solar, volcanic, greenhouse gases) to the increase in average global surface temperature. In each case, they found that the greenhouse gas-global warming signal was statistically significant.
The next paper looks at the sun?s influence on global climate changes over the past 1,000 years. As in the first paper they used regression approach to conclude volcanic and GHG seem to contribute most to pre-twentieth-century climate variability, whereas the contribution by solar forcing is modest, agreeing with the simulations with low solar forcing." This study finds the sun is unlikely to have caused more than 0.15?C of the observed approximately 1?C warming over the past 300 years. They conclude that humans are the dominant cause of recent global warming. They do note that while the sun has little impact on average hemispheric and global temperatures, it does have an influence on regional temperatures.
The third paper examines the role that clouds will play in the sensitivity of the global climate to the increased greenhouse effect. We know that a doubling of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will cause a bit more than 1?C global surface warming. There are several feedbacks that amplify that warming i.e the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. We also know that melting ice makes the planet less reflective, causing it to absorb more sunlight, also amplifying global warming. However, an increase in cloud cover in response to global warming would reflect more sunlight back out to space, thereby cooling the Earth and offsetting some of those positive warming feedbacks. You can draw your own conclusions on their findings.
Topcropper, I would say that the average 0.8C average warming hasn't occurred at those sites. You would need to look at local conditions to understand why. i.e Perth gets cooler winter nights now due to clearer skys. The climate is a complex beast. Are you suggesting that globally it's not getting hotter?
If you have a real good think about it, the fact that records are being broken from 100 years ago is a tick for the deniers. Add to that, that temp records are often only taken as being of any factual use since the Stevenson screen was introduced, which was 1910 in Australia.
If there was a steady and large increase in temps, the records would be getting broken from shorter and ever shorter timeframes. So the hottest ever temp was [I'll make this up] recorded in 1955, then broken in 1989. then broken in 2001, then broken again in 2005, and then 2007, then 2009, etc, etc.
If we entered a rampant and strong warming period where temps were going up at a degree or more per decade, that is what I'd expect to happen, temp records being broken from shorter and shorter periods, even every year.
See ya's.
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