what's wrong with demographia's survey?
How about the fact they classify 'the world' as 5 countries?
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what's wrong with demographia's survey?
what's wrong with demographia's survey?
A savvy developer should have the ABS figures bookmarked TC.
In case you don't, go here.
I did read it. I thought there was nothing new. He's mostly unbalanced - he has an end result he's looking for & finds data to support it & his cheerleaders love him for it.
come on Keith, you're being a little intellectually apathetic in not rising to the occasion and validating anecdotes with some stats mate. you must have as much time as Keen to skew your pov, so get to it.
You're an expert on biases - I'm sure you can tell us which ones he suffers from .
not the bias of supporting an argument with generalizations and selective non random samples, like 'our Western Sydney contributors'.
Glad you like an anecdotes .... although you're the only one I know that made a special effort to come back & 'smurk' at them .
dear me Keith. regressing back into schoolboy shorts as a compensation mechanism for?......avoiding going away and digging up the stats to validate that everything Keen says is BS. a little intellectual inertia creeping in?
special effort? maybe you are right Keith, it is taking a special effort to get you to offer anything specific to counter Keen. I'll have to add you to the smurk list of small picture anecdoters if you don't rise to the occasion.
I repeat, if there's stuff he mentions that you think is worthy of debate then start a thread here.
Back in post #71, you asked me point out on the forum where the following were discussed.....come on Keith, you're being a little intellectually apathetic in not rising to the occasion and validating anecdotes with some stats mate. you must have as much time as Keen to skew your pov, so get to it.
not the bias of supporting an argument with generalizations and selective non random samples, like 'our Western Sydney contributors'.
.... you did read his post ?Demographics on First Home Buyers are unavailable
I repeat, if there's stuff he mentions that you think is worthy of debate then start a thread here.dear me Keith. regressing back into schoolboy shorts as a compensation mechanism for?......avoiding going away and digging up the stats to validate that everything Keen says is BS. a little intellectual inertia creeping in?
special effort? maybe you are right Keith, it is taking a special effort to get you to offer anything specific to counter Keen. I'll have to add you to the smurk list of small picture anecdoters if you don't rise to the occasion.
Sorry.... dunno what you're on about.You repeat?...did you die and reincarnate as Sim???
WW...... I'd love to fire up that intellectual furnace, but you appear to be struggling to find any SK point you think is worthy of debate ???I repeat....... come on Keith, fire up the intellectual furnance, go away until dins and find some stats to validate why Keen is wrong on all accounts, and your anecdotal reality is right, on all accounts.
We should note that the historical '3-4 x income' house price affordability ratios that some D&Gers cling to are no longer valid, because interest rates are historically low, and a large number of buyers today have large deposits, dual incomes, and high disposable income. These are the people who drive property markets - not the FHBs.
Back in post #71, you asked me point out on the forum where the following were discussed.....
....so I did. Now you appear to be criticising that I'm not validating anecdotes with stats .
I criticise Demographia because of it's sponsors & it's flawed methodologies.I retorted with
- debt's contribution to demand
- how much 'fhog % of market' increased
- comparative average loan size taken by fhb's
- fhb's LVRs
you responded with
'western sydney contributors'......
and you criticize demographia?
Spoken at length.
So i don't waste my own time and instead yours how about you give me the % of the Australian market that took out loans 90%+ or lodoc, nodoc, halfdoc, bakeddoc, whatsupdoc loans?
.
The Demographia survey *snip*
We should note that the historical '3-4 x income' house price affordability ratios that some D&Gers cling to are no longer valid, because interest rates are historically low, and a large number of buyers today have large deposits, dual incomes, and high disposable income. These are the people who drive property markets - not the FHBs.
However, the RBA has also demonstrated that 25-40 year olds today still have more disposable income left over after buying a 30th percentile house than at any time in the past (Keithj has some good posts on this).
Nr/WW, you're wasting your time endeavouring to put the detail/context around Keen's position or the analysis that underpins it.
http://ourfinanceblogs.com/forums/index.php?topic=18.0
Japan also had a bubble economy in the 1980s, and its house prices have since fallen 42% in real terms, and more in nominal terms since consumer prices have fallen over the 90s and 00s courtesy of Japan's long-running Depression. That's the reason I give a 40% figure for a price decline in the press: our bubble was larger than Japan's in general (though much smaller than Tokyo's), and a fall of that magnitude would seem a good ball park estimate even though it would take a greater fall to restore the median house price to median income ratio to 3, which is Demographia's estimate of the peak level for affordability.
The blue-sky types have created a straw man based loosely on Keen that they bring up and debate, even though his position of a peak to trough real drop of the size and over the sort of period seen in Japan is not particularly extreme if you think about it.
Not guaranteed by any means, but not an extreme position.
Mind you, their denial is such that at least a couple were suggesting 12 months ago that there was a real possibility of lending getting more flexible in the future, thereby keeping growth going. Yes, 6 months in to a global credit crunch, lending was going to get easier.
I'm sure they would accept today that it was a dumb call, but I doubt they could accept that their then position was driven actually by a need for it to be true rather than a well founded but incorrect forecast based on the facts available at the time.
It really is like debating evolution and the age of the earth with Christian fundamentalists in that they can't allow reality to impinge on their belief system.
afaik Keen's reference to 'as high as 40%' was top to bottom within the next 15 years. ie 2008-2023.
So was he saying that in 15 years properties will be 40% lower then they are now ? Unless he expects that his salary to be also 40% lower in 15 years he needs to redo his calculations, this time with some fresh batteries. LOL
Lending will get easier in the future. Your '6 months into a global credit crunch' statement however is just one of your typical strawman arguments. I don't think many people said lending would be easier in 6 months.
This is a very strange statement. Who made this 'dumb call'. And why would they need it to be true? That whole statement sounds like something you made up.
Why the next boom will be bigger than the last one...
The Australia-wide Boom
- Falling interest rates in late 2008
- Bearish stock market to drive investors into property
- High overseas immigration
- Trend towards fewer persons per household
- Already very high current pent-up demand for housing
- Not enough new houses being built
- Australian median prices still very low compared to many other countries
- Skyrocketing rents encourage investors back to property
- Banks to promote Shared Equity Mortgages, 40-year Mortgages, Generational Mortgages
- Banks to offer 85% LVR without LMI, as Westpac currently allow (possibly)
- Legislation changes allowing Superannuation to more easily invest in property (possibly)
- Legislation changes allowing negative gearing of PPOR, similar to USA (possibly)
The Sydney Boom Especially
- Geographic expansion constraints (Ocean/Mountains/National Park bordering Sydney)
- Resistance to high-density development
- Prices set to rise after past 4-5 years of falling prices and stagnation
- Current Sydney median historically too low compared to other Australian cities
- NSW economy starting to pick up again
- Reversal of the current internal migration trend from NSW to other States
- Top-end already booming - ripple down effect will spread throughout Sydney
Cheers,
Shadow.
Keen is not getting any younger either. Doubtful if he will even be around in 15 years to witness this Nirvana. And if he is, I expect the senility will be even worse... hopefully that won't prevent him making it up to full professor rank though.
Well, I can think of one.
*thinks*
Shadow said:Lending will get easier in the future. Your '6 months into a global credit crunch' statement however is just one of your typical strawman arguments. I don't think many people said lending would be easier in 6 months.