Stock market crash?
- Thread starter qaz
- Start date
Did you read it from the Bible Code?
October is a sell month. Always has been, always will be (past performance no guarantee of future results).
i would have said yes two years ago - but it's certainly top-heavy at present - due for a sell down.
i would have said yes two years ago - but it's certainly top-heavy at present - due for a sell down.
would you be able to explain for us numptys why its a sell month?
next week is probably a bit early. october is certainly lining up for a 5% pullback based on TA.
the big uncertainty is US QE2, which will boost the Dow. No one knows the timeline or details yet. Presume Obama wants to see further weakening in US data before committing, but it is coasting along.
the big uncertainty is US QE2, which will boost the Dow. No one knows the timeline or details yet. Presume Obama wants to see further weakening in US data before committing, but it is coasting along.
wouldn't that have been yesterday?
I think the October thing almost becomes self-fulfilling. It has happened so many times that people get nervous and start to sell which then has a snowball effect. defy it at your own peril!!!!
October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February. — Mark Twain
(Just added for a bit of a laugh)
And i thought it was very funny!
October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February. — Mark Twain
(Just added for a bit of a laugh)
Love it - still laughing!
In other words; it's gambling.
I've personally backtested a stinkload of indicator ideas for their reliability, including month of the year and just about every indicator you care to mention. The guts of it is I wouldn't be basing a system around these, they are not relible indicators on their own.
If for example it was 70% reliable that Oct would be a downer, then the smart traders would load up on shorts in the last week of Sept, then buy them back during the Oct selling, that buying would end in an up month for October. Hence the reason why it's not 70% reliable.
Same goes for most of the indicators you can think of.
If for example it was 70% reliable that Oct would be a downer, then the smart traders would load up on shorts in the last week of Sept, then buy them back during the Oct selling, that buying would end in an up month for October. Hence the reason why it's not 70% reliable.
Same goes for most of the indicators you can think of.
This is the problem I have with TA. A lot of the basics makes sense, but ther are manipulators out there who understand it too and will push prices over a tipping point and shake out believers.
In fact I don't like any of the "rules or wisdoms" of share trading so maybe Bay View is right and shares are all a big gamble, just like property, bonds, art and bank notes. LOL
there are no rules anywhere, Mr Fish.
just socially accepted ideals that form the basis for general decision making.
even laws are ever-changing ideals.
to quote the joker - "only when you understand chaos, can you create order".
so to move away from philosophy, there are generally accepted 'norms' in any market that one needs to understand to have a reasonable measure of risk in any given position.
if we were all philosophers, we'd all be high on thinking and risk averse.
just socially accepted ideals that form the basis for general decision making.
even laws are ever-changing ideals.
to quote the joker - "only when you understand chaos, can you create order".
so to move away from philosophy, there are generally accepted 'norms' in any market that one needs to understand to have a reasonable measure of risk in any given position.
if we were all philosophers, we'd all be high on thinking and risk averse.
"Norms", "rules", call them what you like but sometimes it is good sense to average down, other times you ignore stop losses. I DO accept the general idea of cutting short losses and letting winners run.
I guess I fly by the seat of my pants. LOL
