Strategic Investment View 2014: Sharemarkets

[Intrinsic_Value]

For those that are interested I will be developing my strategic investment view for 2014.

Obviously a strategic investment view is based on long term returns as of the start of the strategic review, its not a short term trading strategy.

I posted two prior strategic investment views on Somersoft a couple of years ago in the coffee lounge.

They worked out very well.

But the picture is not pretty going into 2014.

In a nutshell I am very uncomfortable, in the words of George Sorus, I have a tingling sensation constantly running down my back, its telling me to careful, its telling me that things are not as they seem on the surface.

I feel like Kianu Reeve in the Matrix, I am spending many hours in front of the computer trolling through the internet, trying to find out whats the matter.

 

[Colin Rice]

its telling me that things are not as they seem on the surface.

Thats for sure.

 

[TPI]

Thanks IV, looking forward to it.

 

[china]

I look forward to your analysis. Please be specific as to your top 10 ASX 200 market picks and your entry price.

 

[redwing]

Looking forward to it also IV, I always enjoy reading your post's- even if sometimes not fully understanding it all

Hopefully the strategy lays out your thought process on how you are looking to profit in the current climate

In 2010 I read you were cautious and had lowered your LVR also, with some great returns posted since then that would make many professional money managers envious, I can see why your spider sense is now tingling

The Matrix

 

[ScottyB]

Watching and waiting with interest IV.

Showing my hand I am planning to be 100% out of the Australian Market in 2014, I have convinced myself there is better value and less risk elsewhere.

Would be great to see your view.

Regards

ScottyB

 

[redwing]

Hi IV

Any update?

 

[devank]

I would trust IV's views in this matter than anyone else (including myself!). Looking forward to it!

 

[D.T.]

I look forward to your analysis. Please be specific as to your top 10 ASX 200 market picks and your entry price.

I don't think you "get it".

 

[sarahodesk]

I am also eagerly wiating for your post IV. Like others I always enjoy your posts on share.

 

[china]

Newspaper columnists are all unanimously predicting a rise in equity markets this year.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/five-financial-predictions-for-2014-20140103-308k2.html

This is fuelled by low interest rates.

 

[D.T.]

Newspaper columnists are all unanimously predicting a rise in equity markets this year.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/five-financial-predictions-for-2014-20140103-308k2.html

This is fuelled by low interest rates.

Just dont really see how given there's not much value about. Out of the top 100 companies about 4 are ones I'd want to own and about 2 of those are priced under their IV. Wouldn't that normally signify a 'peak' ?

 

[TPI]

Just dont really see how given there's not much value about. Out of the top 100 companies about 4 are ones I'd want to own and about 2 of those are priced under their IV. Wouldn't that normally signify a 'peak' ?

It may suggest a peak, but if earnings increase substantially in the coming years, perhaps today's prices might not look so bad?

 

[china]

A series of rising peaks suggests an uptrend which is a good thing to buy into.

 

[mrdobalina]

Newspaper columnists are all unanimously predicting a rise in equity markets this year.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/five-financial-predictions-for-2014-20140103-308k2.html

This is fuelled by low interest rates.

Clear sign the market will go the opposite way to the herd of journos. S&P500 rose 30% in 2013, artificially fueled by zero interest rates and quantative easing. Bubble inflating?

We are cashed up, but cautious about jumping back into the market. Things just don't look right...

 

[SoftBank]

Clear sign the market will go the opposite way to the herd of journos. S&P500 rose 30% in 2013, artificially fueled by zero interest rates and quantative easing. Bubble inflating?

We are cashed up, but cautious about jumping back into the market. Things just don't look right...

It was laughable how far off the major investment banks were with their 2013 S&P targets:

Goldmans - 1575
UBS - 1425
MS - 1434
DB - 1500
Wells Fargo - 1390

A late 90's style melt-up seems to be what's underway, now driven my FOMA (fear of missing out). I don't like what I am seeing at all and am prepared to get tactical very quickly.

As an aside, I think the whole (mechanical) effect of QE is overstated, i.e. not inflationary. I do agree though that it's causing risk assets to be bid up. A 30's type deleveraging is a very rare bird and very powerful force.

 

[redwing]

Where is IV

 

[devank]

Where is IV

Looking for Intrinsic Value?

 

[TPI]

Looking for Intrinsic Value?

Hard to find intrinsic value in this market, he must be on holidays.

 

[D.T.]

Hard to find intrinsic value in this market, he must be on holidays.

So true. Not sure if/when itll return