That supports what I am saying (which you didn't address).
Interesting because I thought it was refuting what you said.
I didn't respond till now because you hadn't answered my query about your property investing experience, I try not to waste time with opinionated watchers who have never actually done what they are so knowledgable about. So looks like I was wrong with that, you owned a unit which you have since sold, the people I have labelled as time wasters are never up front with that question when asked and BS their way past it.
The bid up in prices from 2001 to 2005 has never happened before.
Well I think it has, though I don't have the median data from the 1890's and suspect I would have to go that far back to prove it, it's an academic point I would make anyway. Granted it was a cracker 4 (or so) year burst, say around the range 2+ standard deviations of average 4 year gains based on my data.. It was a great time to be owing property, and haven't met anyone who said they owned enough during this time!
It was steeper and faster AND it was in a time of low inflation (so real prices are even higher). So the logic that a drop has never happened before doesn't hold much weight considering the price rise we've just seen hasn't happened before either.
Well sure, things always happen for a first time, my only point was how can you base an investing strategy around something that has never happened yet? Which would be what you are doing to consciously wait for Brisbane median prices to fall from 400+ to 350 (or lower) in your timeframe before buying.
I'm sorry - you haven't changed my mind! We will see - hope you are still posting this time next year!
I'm pretty sure I will be... Will bump this thread regardless or whether you are still around or not and will compare notes. In the meantime I will stay away from what I see as a very agressive position of 0% exposure to resi property in Brisbane and hold my IP's.
Quick afterthought (edit) --> If you are into time series analysis I'd suggest you overlay your chart with median household debt, median wages, and median contruction costs. It will become very obvious that the path we are on is not sustainable.
I could do that if I knew how to perhaps
You know nothing is sustainable if you go far enough into the future I suspect, perhaps some people will continue to make property wealth in the meantime though?
I have cluttered this thread enough, I really enjoy the real life feedback from people in this thread regarding what is actually happening in terms of actual deals and $$ in pockets rather than clipped opinion piece wisdom. Would be happy to continue and debate any considered viewpoints in another thread perhaps.