Suburb Analysis Webinar

Discussion in 'Innovative Techniques' started by jacbmw, 14th Dec, 2012.

  1. jacbmw

    jacbmw Member

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    Sydney
    Hi Everyone,

    I am hosting an interactive webinar this Sunday at 7pm. Terry Ryder has been kind enough to offer to me his Cheapies with Prospects (city and regional) report to use as reference and to select a number of suburbs to analysis and break down. I will demonstrate some tools that can be used and find pockets within these suburbs with good prospects for growth (above the median of the suburb generally). And then find individual properties within these pockets.

    I am not proposing to be an investment expert, but merely just using the suburb recommendations of industry experts - and then performing spatial and statistical analysis on these suburbs to find properties of interest. So hopefully there is some useful information in the Webinar for a few of you!

    So please dont hesitate in registering as it is free and I hope the webinar is beneficial for those that attend.

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8708686592800002816

    Regards, Jacob
     
  2. devank

    devank Why why why?

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    Location:
    Inner West, NSW
    Your site is interesting. What are the definitions of your 'Ripehouse Zones'?
     
  3. jacbmw

    jacbmw Member

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    Ripehouse Zones are:

    Blue Chip: Sustained above median values long term (>1 year). Steadily above mean, but not increasing 1/4 on 1/4.

    Gentrification: Same as Blue Chip, but increasing in last 2 1/4's

    Cold Zone: Sustained below median values long term( >1 year)

    Amenity Zone: Area of suburb that has above average amenity to Transport, Shops and Schools.

    Each zone identified sites on a sliding scale of strength, and represented on a suburb map. The bigger the zone on the map (the circle) the stronger the zone (ie. further from mean, or accelerated growth).

    Some suburbs may not have any zones (no discernable zone areas) or only zones of a certain type. The zones are generated automatically, using spatial algorithms similar to those using in crime and weather.

    Hope this helps :)
     
  4. BHK

    BHK Member

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    Melb
    if the zones are overlapped, how to interpret ?
    cheers
     
  5. vaughan

    vaughan Member

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    What I'd like to see is this analysis done on old data, say 5 years ago, and see how the "predictions" work out.
     
  6. jacbmw

    jacbmw Member

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    Hi BHK,

    The different sizes of the zones indicate strength (ie. larger purple zone indicates a greater density of amenities in that area). If a zone is large enough to overlap another zone of the same type, any overlap shouldn't be regarded as double the intensity, but of merely just part of the same zone/s.

    If a blue chip/gentrification/cold zone overlaps an amenity zone, then that area is constitutes both at the same time.

    Logically a blue chip/gentrification and cold zone shouldn't exist on the same spatial area, and if it does then please let me know in order to investigate!

    I will shortly be adding (re adding actually as this was a past feature) the ability to filter properties based on if they are located in a zone area.

    Hope this answers your question.

    ps. I am actually hosting another webinar this Thursday at 7pm ( http://JacobField.enterthemeeting.com/m/46NTZ1QT ) if you would like to see the usage of zones etc in some real case studies :)

    Regards, Jacob
     
  7. santaslayer

    santaslayer Member

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    Hi Jacob. Link not working:

    Webinar not available
    This webinar is currently not available. Please contact the organizer for more information.
     
  8. jacbmw

    jacbmw Member

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    Hi Vaughan,

    Unfortunately I only have data going back 2 years :-( The zone overlays arent "predictions" as such, but they have been generated on the price trends looking back over the last year. They are not an indication of future price movements, just a visual representation of price over that past period.

    I actually had a feature live on the site back about a year that allowed you to play a slideshow of time starting 1 year previous, in quarterly blocks, showing how the zones were moving throughout a suburb. This was a great feature, but it needed a large sample size of sales int he suburb to create reliably - so I disabled it because it was patchy in 95% of suburbs.

    A larger dataset would help in rolling this feature back out, but they are hard to come by! :)

    Regards, Jacob
     
  9. jacbmw

    jacbmw Member

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    Hi santaslayer, this is the latest webinar link :)

    http://JacobField.enterthemeeting.com/m/46NTZ1QT

    Cheers, Jacob
     
  10. MelbInvester

    MelbInvester Member

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    Location:
    Glen waverley
    Cold Zone: Sustained below median values long term( >1 year)

    This mean look in this zone to purchase?
     
  11. jacbmw

    jacbmw Member

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    HI MelbInvester - The zone overlays are just great to visually see how pricing changes across a suburb - it is a separate idea about how to exploit them (syncying with your strategy).

    It has been argued that Blue Chip zones are great investment candidates as they have demonstrated previous higher growth, which may be an indication of future performance.

    Cold zones may be lower in price for legitimate reasons, and until this changes its investment prospects for that area may not improve.

    The zones are great in helping to ensure that you dont overpay for a property in a cold zone, or an area with lots of public housing - or on the converse scenario can justify the higher price of a property in a blue chip zone.

    Hope this help - Jacob
     
  12. T.G

    T.G Member

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    Sydney,NSW
    I joined up and so far i'm regretting it. Results for flip houses are off the plan or newly built homes or land. Also pretty much all the resulting homes are under contract and have been for sometime, a bunch are even sold despite saying 0 days on market. Bitterly Dissapointed.
     
    Last edited: 17th Dec, 2014
  13. jacbmw

    jacbmw Member

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    Location:
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    Hi TG,

    Sorry to hear of your experiences! I am on standby to work with you towards a resolution. There may be options around filtering the properties that are appearing, to remove these from the sample in a suburb. Perhaps a screenshare session might work well and I can run you through the tool for your strategy and suburb. I will PM my details etc.

    Regards, Jacob