Sydney Market at top - calling a severe correction in 2018-2019

Smart man....just make sure you have all the money in existing Sydney property pulled out as deposits. ;)

Agreed actually. I'll likely begin buying again in Sydney in 2017-18; when conditions are better. And if by some miracle in those years the Sydney market does nothing but continue to skyrocket, I'll look elsewhere.
 
Agreed actually. I'll likely begin buying again in Sydney in 2017-18; when conditions are better. And if by some miracle in those years the Sydney market does nothing but continue to skyrocket, I'll look elsewhere.

I would not be buying in Sydney again until circa 2026/27 at this stage although things could change that.

If you had some guts Sydney (certain pockets) could still be worth a shot this cycle but I would be out within two years. Entry and exit costs would take most of your profits now though.
 
The Mirvac Harold Park development is pretty much Glebe, which will be 1250 townhouses/Aparments when complete.

Ashmore Precinct which is considered part of Erskinville is planned for about 3000 residences. Very early stage but I believe some land holdings in the area have already changed hands.

They are like mini versions of your Green Square Development.

There is also talk of the Bay's Precinct, which would encompass a lot more accomodation around your Glebe/Annandale area if it ever gets up.

Inner West has been fairly similar in terms of no large scale development upto this point. But there are some large scale developments under-way in some suburbs now.

That's the thing with a lot of this infill development, the projects are so big that they get planned/debated for years, but when they do actually happen it has a flooding effect.

On their own I think there is probably that much latent demand that they would get gobbled up, but with more and more getting built concurrently its hard to keep track.

The major factor with the lack of development has been who is government/council.

I don't know.. but I think it's about time Inner west needs a complete Revamp... this is WAY Overdue... It has been over 10 years without any development... people are fighting for land anywhere in 5-10km radius of CBD.

If you look at any other Capital City around the world... 5-10km of CBD has been mostly developed (i.e. lots of high rise, and apartment of course with infrastructure). However sydney is WAY behind.

+ all this planned proposed development around Glebe, Erskinsville wont be completed anytime soon (all that 2000-3000 apartment wont be completed in like 12-24 months). Normally this is done in phases. Perhaps in 5 years or so and by then the supply probably get outrun by the demand again.
 
Source? I'm sure Melbourne and Sydney weren't growing quite that quickly last time I checked.

ABS. Well these are state growth numbers. I just translated them to Melbourne/Sydney which is a bit cheeky of me, but let's say 80% went to the capital cities that would be around 85000.
 
Am i the only one here that thinks someone is trying to put fear into other members of this forum for some sort of personal gain for themself?
 
Am i the only one here that thinks someone is trying to put fear into other members of this forum for some sort of personal gain for themself?

I don't think that somersoft members have the capacity to push the market up and down. We're merely here to discuss what it will do rather than change the trajectory of the trends.
 
Am i the only one here that thinks someone is trying to put fear into other members of this forum for some sort of personal gain for themself?

I don't think so... Everyone have their own opinion and believe, so don't be scared of what other think.

I will still invest in Sydney regardless what the media and other think, as long as you know if you have enough equity and cash flow to service your debt in the rough time why not ?

Im investing for long term goal (20-30 years)... If i buy 2 bed unit for 500k now, tenanted for 470-480 per week, really what are the chance for it to crash to 300-400k ?!?!?... and in 20-30 years I'm almost certain it will at least 1 million.
 
You won't see interest rates at 8% again for as long as I have a hole in my ar$e

Pretty bold statement, but I like it!

Many doomsayers only say, it is near the top, near the top, interest rates will go up, but, no one can explain, why it will go up? Unemployment rates are still very high, and economy is getting worse, any budget saving measure still stuck in Tony's thoughts bubble, no reason for RBA to increase interest rates.

And, will there be any variation in the drop across Sydney areas? Which area in Sydney will hold value?
 
Pretty bold statement, but I like it!

Many doomsayers only say, it is near the top, near the top, interest rates will go up, but, no one can explain, why it will go up? Unemployment rates are still very high, and economy is getting worse, any budget saving measure still stuck in Tony's thoughts bubble, no reason for RBA to increase interest rates.

And, will there be any variation in the drop across Sydney areas? Which area in Sydney will hold value?

I believed so. Drop wont occur to all part of Sydney. I guess some area with a very high dense and high vacancy rate will be highest risk (i.e Inner City Zetland, Waterloo, Mascot, Alexandria. There are So many high rise apartment, the rental yield are getting very very low, and Vacancy rate is very high)
 
I don't think that somersoft members have the capacity to push the market up and down. We're merely here to discuss what it will do rather than change the trajectory of the trends.

Agree , I think we just reflect what is going on in the community .

Having said that i believe that some Individuals on somerrsoft could trigger interest in a smaller market ( though whether it would change the market I don't know ) or certainly generate interest in individual properties .

My observation is most long term members don't talk about where they're buying until after they've bought . Generally I dont , though I probably did when I first joined .

There was a developer on the forum years ago called Michael croft , who started a thread that was going to follow though from the buying through everything . Unfortunately for him , he posted details of the property prior to buying and the agents got a sudden increase in interest in the property so he didn't end up buyin it .

Cliff
 
Agree , I think we just reflect what is going on in the community .

Having said that i believe that some Individuals on somerrsoft could trigger interest in a smaller market ( though whether it would change the market I don't know ) or certainly generate interest in individual properties .

My observation is most long term members don't talk about where they're buying until after they've bought . Generally I dont , though I probably did when I first joined .

There was a developer on the forum years ago called Michael croft , who started a thread that was going to follow though from the buying through everything . Unfortunately for him , he posted details of the property prior to buying and the agents got a sudden increase in interest in the property so he didn't end up buyin it .

Cliff

Same could be said about people like Micahel Yardley and Margaret Lomas. They mention areas and some people blindly buy in.
 
Same could be said about people like Micahel Yardley and Margaret Lomas. They mention areas and some people blindly buy in.

But , you will never see Michael advise people buy in places like Mt Druitt , Logan etc . I don't pay much attention to Margaret , as I seem to recall that she has recommended some mining towns , and for me that's one of my few no no's

They have their own biases .

Here , you can find almost every where being recommended by someone ....:D

Or at least discussed .

Cliff
 
I don't pay much attention to Margaret , as I seem to recall that she has recommended some mining towns , and for me that's one of my few no no's

No, she's very wary of mining towns. She advises only buying in towns where there are several varied industries and future signs of development/infrastructure to keep the town afloat no matter what.
 
Yep...the person who recommended it is similar to Bolt hole....

No, she's very wary of mining towns. She advises only buying in towns where there are several varied industries and future signs of development/infrastructure to keep the town afloat no matter what.
 
:) I know you're brilliant, but sometimes I have no idea what you're talking about.

:confused:

Think Sash is referring to Dymphna Boholt.

I've read Margaret's books, she advocates to buy in non-mining towns as they don't have diverse industry or intrinsic growth drivers.
 
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