Sydney Market at top - calling a severe correction in 2018-2019

Ditto.....would be interesting to see how the people who bought in Moranbah are faring....

Think Sash is referring to Dymphna Boholt.

I've read Margaret's books, she advocates to buy in non-mining towns as they don't have diverse industry or intrinsic growth drivers.
 
There have been a few threads on Moranbah on SS, not too pretty at the moment like any mining town around Australia they have been hammered.
From what I have read rents have dropped off and so have property prices in this area, with an oversupply of both.

It would be very difficult to sell properties in this area, who would buy considering the risk.
 
I don't think that somersoft members have the capacity to push the market up and down. We're merely here to discuss what it will do rather than change the trajectory of the trends.

100% believe that somersoft members DO NOT have the capacity to push the market up and down.

But feel that the intention may be there

I do not disagree with everything the OP says but still find a lot of the comments to be rubbish (this i just my opinion)

My opinion is correction may come if there are changes in legislation (restricting and encouraging certain types of buyers)

In saying that my feeling is growth in Sydney may decrease and market will stagnate but im still heavily interested in investing in Sydney (just my strategy will need adopt to current markets - lot of opportunities out there)
 
im just wondering about all the factors in the west mainly (new rail, new developments, new houses) would this keep sydney growing past 2020?
 
100% believe that somersoft members DO NOT have the capacity to push the market up and down.

But feel that the intention may be there

I do not disagree with everything the OP says but still find a lot of the comments to be rubbish (this i just my opinion)

My opinion is correction may come if there are changes in legislation (restricting and encouraging certain types of buyers)

In saying that my feeling is growth in Sydney may decrease and market will stagnate but im still heavily interested in investing in Sydney (just my strategy will need adopt to current markets - lot of opportunities out there)

Correct.... simply compare Sydney suburb VS Melbourne Suburb Vs Brisbane QLD suburb in real estate.com... look how low the current Stock is in Sydney market. I couldn't even find any 2 bed unit in the suburb I lived in (almost 2 weeks with no new stock, almost everything sold in just few days (one open house))
 
As I said again....the party stops as soon as interest rates start rising.......with the current level of indebtness...it will be a double whammy if jobs are also not available...:rolleyes:
 
I dont think we will see a 'correction'

just a basic plateau for 2-4 years of zero growth, even if interest rates go up,

I feel that even though property always goes in cycles, humans learn ever so slowly, like the property cycle many of the experts say is now 12-15 years and not the standard 10 years, which i agree with too, depending on the area
 
As I said again....the party stops as soon as interest rates start rising.......with the current level of indebtness...it will be a double whammy if jobs are also not available...:rolleyes:

I'm interested in the economic rationale of raising interest rates if unemployment high and jobs unavailable.
 
I dont think we will see a 'correction'

just a basic plateau for 2-4 years of zero growth, even if interest rates go up,

I feel that even though property always goes in cycles, humans learn ever so slowly, like the property cycle many of the experts say is now 12-15 years and not the standard 10 years, which i agree with too, depending on the area

Yes times have changed. 10 million Japanese with $1m now looking offshore due to QE plus 100 million Chinese with $1 million plus soon. Australia is ranked 1 for both of them for property investments. Followed by UK Canada US HK SG
 
So in saying all this.. What does a first time investor do? not buy in Sydney? Take the risk and invest elsewhere? SEQ predicted to grow 15% in next 3 years whereas Sydney is on track for that here..
 
As an relatively small investor with a small capital base, I'm sitting on the sideline for now. Happy to hoard cash/equity until a better opportunity presents itself. If not, that's fine, there's always shares.
 
So in saying all this.. What does a first time investor do? not buy in Sydney? Take the risk and invest elsewhere? SEQ predicted to grow 15% in next 3 years whereas Sydney is on track for that here..

What are your goals, your current financial situation and your risk profile? They should determine your strategy (e.g. longterm buy and hold with multi-decade timeframe, aggressive acquisition of as much property as possible, focusing on cashflow positive properties etc). From there, you can know where you might look at buying.

If you think Sydney has no short term growth left in (and that elsewhere will perform better over the same time period) and your goal is to accumulate multiple properties, it wouldn't make great sense to buy there if you don't imagine will produce the equity you need for subsequent purchases. Saving deposits in cash takes a while.

Conversely, if you think Sydney has strong short term growth prospects, it might make sense to buy there first and draw out equity a year later for another purchase, but this comes with the risk of knowing Sydney's already seen bumped growth the last 2 years. It won't last forever.

I'm personally confident that my holdings in Marrickville are have got more growth left in them, but have eyes on Brisbane now. I reckon over the next 12 months my Sydney stuff will outperform what I buy in Bris, but over the next 2-3 years, it may be a different story.
 
As an relatively small investor with a small capital base, I'm sitting on the sideline for now. Happy to hoard cash/equity until a better opportunity presents itself. If not, that's fine, there's always shares.

I'm curious. Just want to confirm if I interpret correctly. :)

You are in a position to buy but are choosing not to as you believe better opportunities await?
 
As an relatively small investor with a small capital base, I'm sitting on the sideline for now. Happy to hoard cash/equity until a better opportunity presents itself. If not, that's fine, there's always shares.

Ditto re Richard ... Sitting on the sidelines ?? At the moment ??

For me the current situation represents a great time to buy in several markets in Australia . My biggest dilemma is which market ...

My frustration is we've just moved , still sort out various things financially and house wise so buying now would be add another level of chaos to our lives . Give me another month or so and I'll be buying as much as we can reasonably afford .

Cliff
 
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