In Sydney it went sideways for a while then had a sharp correction with the GFC . some places started moving slowly after that .
Strong growth occurred from mid 2013 and still going .
Other places were still moving after 2003
Cliff
Sydney Market at top - calling a severe correction in 2018-2019
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In Sydney it went sideways for a while then had a sharp correction with the GFC . some places started moving slowly after that .
Strong growth occurred from mid 2013 and still going .
Other places were still moving after 2003
Cliff
Invest where you think you will make the best return.
Sometimes that will be reasonably close to home so that you do a renovation easier (or add value in another way) - other times that will be far from home because it represents a better opportunity.
Just as long as you have a plan on how you will profit from the investment.
Good post Richard. I second everything you say here. The only thing I would add is to remember that the property market in Australia and worldwide for that matter has markets within markets within markets etc etc. I think it was Skater bought in Sydney after 2003/04 boom and has managed to double and some from those purchases in Sydney.
My goal is to acquire as many as I can as soon (next few years) as I can and then hold them for 15-20 years..I don't have the biggest deposit but i'm young and can afford to hold for a while. Just dont know whether I should risk not buying in Sydney cos at least in Sydney I can live in it one day and call it my own whereas if I start in Brisbane I wont have that luxury.. It's all a bit daunting seeing my first boom as an adult.
This is an interesting article saying the interest rate may be down to 0 in the next couple of years.. In my opinion if people are buying after the rate cuts wouldn't they be the same people that may struggle one day if the rates get higher than what they bought at? Not the best statement but is that what usually happens? I'm seeing a lot of people stretch themselves in western sydney at the moment..
http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/...il&utm_term=0_a523fbfccb-f7d6390e28-245274505
This is an interesting article saying the interest rate may be down to 0 in the next couple of years.. In my opinion if people are buying after the rate cuts wouldn't they be the same people that may struggle one day if the rates get higher than what they bought at? Not the best statement but is that what usually happens? I'm seeing a lot of people stretch themselves in western sydney at the moment..
http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/...il&utm_term=0_a523fbfccb-f7d6390e28-245274505
C&K
Anyone who bought on 2003/2004 would have made money now even if they bought at the top as one full cycle has passed. The issue is about whether you can hold on....and whether it is most efficient way of investing let alone the opportunity cost. I bought a property in 2002 and have almost quadrupled the value. The ones I bought in 1999 have definitely quadrupled. But be assured I have not achieve my portfolio size by buyong at the wrong time as it will strangle you ability to build your asset base.
Dangerous territory....make sure you have a large buffer or mum/dad as the back-up bank.
Yep...more than pain...potential bankrputcy....
Anyone who bought on 2003/2004 would have made money now even if they bought at the top as one full cycle has passed. The issue is about whether you can hold on....and whether it is most efficient way of investing let alone the opportunity cost. I bought a property in 2002 and have almost quadrupled the value. The ones I bought in 1999 have definitely quadrupled. But be assured I have not achieve my portfolio size by buyong at the wrong time as it will strangle you ability to build your asset base.
Dangerous territory....make sure you have a large buffer or mum/dad as the back-up bank.
Yep...more than pain...potential bankrputcy....
Absolutely right.
I have heard a lot of people say this kind of stuff. I always suggest they view their investment portfolio as an investment portfolio.
What is the greater risk? Making an investment decision based on a non-investment reason, or making an investment decision based on an investment reason?
Too true!
We started our current PPOR in Brisbane having relocated here with work. We held our three properties in our development in Mona Vale because we were scared we'd be priced out of the Sydney market if we ever wanted to return home to Sydney.As it turns out, our new PPOR in Brisbane is in a great location in a postcode that is really starting to wake up now. 2 years ago it would have been worth $850K odd finished. The latest valuations say this could be closer to $1.3M now. We never suspected Brisbane would be this lucrative!!
I guess it bears out the adage of the importance of diversification. We're watching our Sydney properties boom and already starting to feel the beginnings of the Brisbane cycle now too. I think we'll sit back and focus on debt reduction for a while and let this cycle play out nationally. We'll start looking again in about 5 years time from a strong equity and cash flow position when everyone is then talking doom and gloom after its peaked and fallen 10% like that's a bad thing...
Sell when others are buying, buy when others are selling. Just gonna strap in for the ride for a while now that we've got good assets in place already.
Cheers,
Michael
Hi Michael
Would you ever consider reducing debt by selling some of your properties. If cash flow positive then no need I guess.
Also, if you plan to go hard again down the track, you could also access equity now while the markets are up before they tank??
My guess is when Syd finally crashes it will fall hard, just my gut telling me as its been going so strong for so long, if history repeats itself these markets can fall back significantly.
All sounds very good regardless of what happens as you certainly got the timing right and I am with you on following various markets. Noice
Would you ever consider reducing debt by selling some of your properties. If cash flow positive then no need I guess.
Also, if you plan to go hard again down the track, you could also access equity now while the markets are up before they tank??
My guess is when Syd finally crashes it will fall hard, just my gut telling me as its been going so strong for so long, if history repeats itself these markets can fall back significantly.
All sounds very good regardless of what happens as you certainly got the timing right and I am with you on following various markets. Noice
Too true!
As it turns out, our new PPOR in Brisbane is in a great location in a postcode that is really starting to wake up now. 2 years ago it would have been worth $850K odd finished. The latest valuations say this could be closer to $1.3M now. We never suspected Brisbane would be this lucrative!!
I guess it bears out the adage of the importance of diversification. We're watching our Sydney properties boom and already starting to feel the beginnings of the Brisbane cycle now too. I think we'll sit back and focus on debt reduction for a while and let this cycle play out nationally. We'll start looking again in about 5 years time from a strong equity and cash flow position when everyone is then talking doom and gloom after its peaked and fallen 10% like that's a bad thing...
Sell when others are buying, buy when others are selling. Just gonna strap in for the ride for a while now that we've got good assets in place already.
Cheers,
Michael
Michael
Other option is too buy a few cheapies , then sell those to pay down debt once they've gone up .
That's our current plan
Hang on to the nice ones
Cliff
Because I own my own business in Sydney so its hard to move.. I wouldn't mind living in Brisbane though..I love the place. All depends if my future wife will come haha
Richard, I like that advice. Thanks mate
To the earlier question, Sydney went sideways but western sydney tanked 15-20% in 3 years after the last boom.. I see the stats when I was look at property reports and historical data.. Some areas tanked even more than that and I'm guessing it'll be the same if the rates ever go up.. As a FHB though this is the most depressing place to be.. People buying shacks 50km from the cbd for 550k because there's a bit of land content lol
hahaRichard, I like that advice. Thanks mate
To the earlier question, Sydney went sideways but western sydney tanked 15-20% in 3 years after the last boom.. I see the stats when I was look at property reports and historical data.. Some areas tanked even more than that and I'm guessing it'll be the same if the rates ever go up.. As a FHB though this is the most depressing place to be.. People buying shacks 50km from the cbd for 550k because there's a bit of land content lol
That cannot last, Sydney is no HK nor Mumbai or anything like that. It will take ages for those shacks 50km from the cbd to have a decent capital appreciation.
To the OP question, is the Sydney market at a top?
Well, today's media says its selling better than it ever has suggesting we're rocketing into peak market conditions. But I'd be loathe to call this the top. For me, this has a long way to run before it peters out.
Sydney auction market keeps getting hotter
Cliff, as a ripple follower you'll appreciate this insight: That's the first time this cycle the Northern Beaches has made it into the 90's. In fact its been selling at below the 80's in auction clearance rates until now. I've been watching it carefully with the inner west and inner city leading, then rippling out through the Lower North Shore to the Upper North Shore and North West and now finally making it to the Northern Beaches.
I guess that means we're at the end of the Sydney ripple then this boom?
Time to look North to Brisbane. But I dare say Sydney's going to surprise on the upside for a while longer. Did you read those sale price numbers in that article? $5M, $6M, $7M like its nothing...
Cheers,
Michael
PS Cliff, thanks for the advice. Might just do that. We have $400K LOC today and once we finish our new build in Brisbane will have that much again. A couple of cheapies with options to add value in the future in some way might be just the ticket.
Well, today's media says its selling better than it ever has suggesting we're rocketing into peak market conditions. But I'd be loathe to call this the top. For me, this has a long way to run before it peters out.
Sydney auction market keeps getting hotter
SMH said:
Cliff, as a ripple follower you'll appreciate this insight: That's the first time this cycle the Northern Beaches has made it into the 90's. In fact its been selling at below the 80's in auction clearance rates until now. I've been watching it carefully with the inner west and inner city leading, then rippling out through the Lower North Shore to the Upper North Shore and North West and now finally making it to the Northern Beaches.
I guess that means we're at the end of the Sydney ripple then this boom?
Time to look North to Brisbane. But I dare say Sydney's going to surprise on the upside for a while longer. Did you read those sale price numbers in that article? $5M, $6M, $7M like its nothing...
Cheers,
Michael
PS Cliff, thanks for the advice. Might just do that. We have $400K LOC today and once we finish our new build in Brisbane will have that much again. A couple of cheapies with options to add value in the future in some way might be just the ticket.
My shacks on the Northern Beaches are 35km from the CBD and I'd class their capital appreciation as "decent"...
Cheers,
Michael
I hear this a lot..but then I see the jobs that are being created..Retail and construction..Full time retail in Sydney pays 40k a year whereas construction probably 60k (going off what my tradie mates get paid unless they do cash jobs)..So the question then is, if you're making 850-1200/week, how high could it go in the west? Are people going to be willing to pay 600-700/week in mortgage repayments while working in all these new jobs we're creating while trying to feed their children too?
Do you think the same people who panicked during this Sydney boom and put in ridiculous offers to make sure they get a house are the same who will panic if the rates go up and house prices start to go down?
Wouldn't that be because they're close to beaches though?
Absolutely! Land scarcity is what drives appreciation and land that close to beaches with good local amenity and easy access to a major capital city is scarce. You're spot on, and I agree big land out west has less scarcity value.
Cheers,
Michael
Can't Agree more.... assets near the beaches and close to good local amenity is VERY RARE.... hence price will keep on increasing.
But not too sure if you're buying in the 3+mill realm hahah
