B
Was interested to see that wahroonga had fallen by 6 %.
Could come down to the way that statistics are added up . There are lots of expensive properties that can traditionally take a while to sell. Not sure on official stats, but driving around there were quite a few for sale a while ago , and not so many recently.
This could explain why the price has dropped down. I could also be that the people arn't prepared to pay the "silly prices " that they were paying last year... but then again that would be a drop.
In a similar vein , Concord was near the top of the unit increases last year, ? ( IMHO ) because there were several upmarket developments that might have pushed the market up.
see change
Could come down to the way that statistics are added up . There are lots of expensive properties that can traditionally take a while to sell. Not sure on official stats, but driving around there were quite a few for sale a while ago , and not so many recently.
This could explain why the price has dropped down. I could also be that the people arn't prepared to pay the "silly prices " that they were paying last year... but then again that would be a drop.
In a similar vein , Concord was near the top of the unit increases last year, ? ( IMHO ) because there were several upmarket developments that might have pushed the market up.
see change
Residex supposedly look at the same property which was sold x years before, and make adjustments, in order to calculate their indices. There was a thread very recently about this.
Peter Spann, a few years ago, pointed to a drop in housing some years back (this was in a seminar a few years ago). His viewpoint was that the dip in property prices in one city (Melbourne or Sydney I thiink) was largely due to the top end of the market falling. The high fliers could not longer get the multi million dollar properties- but, in the lower brackets, property prices continued their relentless rise.
Peter Spann, a few years ago, pointed to a drop in housing some years back (this was in a seminar a few years ago). His viewpoint was that the dip in property prices in one city (Melbourne or Sydney I thiink) was largely due to the top end of the market falling. The high fliers could not longer get the multi million dollar properties- but, in the lower brackets, property prices continued their relentless rise.
Hi
Below - is a response from a moman real estate agent
______
Nothing beats a classic piece of journalism and an article that appeared in The Sydney Morning Herald last Saturday by John Garnaut headed "Property falls hit the hardest at the high end", was a beauty!! I loved this one by John Edwards who is Chief Executive of Residex, "It's too early to call, but it looks to us that we've reached the end of the housing cycle". Well if it is too early, why comment! Or could he perceive the market to be 'descending down' just love all this property prophesying. The article went on to say "After taking into account preliminary figures for April, Sydney house and unit prices fell about 0.5 per cent on average over the last three months". Well nothing happened in April as we had a combination of school holidays, Easter and Anzac Day, so it was not a month to market property, and let us not also forget that a war was playing in the background. As for March, well that was actually a record month for many agents and we sold $35 million dollars worth of property, which was our all time record month. March also saw RWM post the second highest sale price ever recorded in Mosman!! Woo hoo, I loved this one also "The biggest falls in some of Sydney's most exclusive suburbs, with prices in Mosman down by over 7 per cent". What an absolute load of rubbish. The market is actually up this year by around 10 per cent, based on our statistics recorded, and the real test will be next week when the May auction results are posted. Now to add to the confusion, the article stated "The Residex figures measure repeat sales rather than median home prices". Well that would explain it, as the current average price for a home in Mosman is presently at an all time high at $1,785,349 and the figures for April will show the price climb higher.
The Internet came to the fore again this week when we posted two quite amazing sales, given that both purchasers never inspected the properties. One lives in the United Kingdom and another in Hong Kong. We sold a brand new apartment in the new Mirvac development in Hickson Road Walsh Bay for $1,795,000, and an apartment that had been on the market with another agent for six months in Shadforth Street for $1,342,500. Our Internet side of the business has now sold 94 properties, totalling $155,462,000. Now that is what I call a smart business plan! Both the properties in this case were identified exclusively on rwm.com.au. It just goes to show that some "never leave home without it". This week I read the most amazing quote by the author of The New New Thing, wherein Michael Lewis states "The future will be so different that the past will no longer even be able to serve as a reference - there'll be no point in examining track records when the race is no longer run on a track".
It will be very interesting to see how the 'Governor of Moolah' responds to the ascending 'Ozzie Ollar'. The meeting in early June could very well see a rate cut. Now that will make the property market very interesting! Given that we anticipate a strong auction result next week, June could very well have plenty of heat in it. So why not pop down to the auctions next Tuesday night, and Bon Appetit, as the menu will be awesome. Smoked salmon, creme fraiche and caper canapes, mushroom duxelle bouchee, prosciutto wrapped asparagus spears, plus a few more to whet the appetite. We are still deciding on the wine list, and I have always been partial to a soft Merlot in May. There is no point buying a property on an empty stomach!! Some offer Minties, but we much prefer to do our auctions differently as it is important that all our clients end up with a smile.
See you at the opens, or we will see you at the auctions. What you won't see is the Mosman market down 7 per cent. But there again, the vast majority already knew that!! I wish the guy who keeps writing this stuff, and who also wrote in January "Housing heads from boom to gloom" would subscribe to VRN. In all probability I will have to subscribe him myself. Now there is a clue!! Cheers...^__^
Below - is a response from a moman real estate agent
______
Nothing beats a classic piece of journalism and an article that appeared in The Sydney Morning Herald last Saturday by John Garnaut headed "Property falls hit the hardest at the high end", was a beauty!! I loved this one by John Edwards who is Chief Executive of Residex, "It's too early to call, but it looks to us that we've reached the end of the housing cycle". Well if it is too early, why comment! Or could he perceive the market to be 'descending down' just love all this property prophesying. The article went on to say "After taking into account preliminary figures for April, Sydney house and unit prices fell about 0.5 per cent on average over the last three months". Well nothing happened in April as we had a combination of school holidays, Easter and Anzac Day, so it was not a month to market property, and let us not also forget that a war was playing in the background. As for March, well that was actually a record month for many agents and we sold $35 million dollars worth of property, which was our all time record month. March also saw RWM post the second highest sale price ever recorded in Mosman!! Woo hoo, I loved this one also "The biggest falls in some of Sydney's most exclusive suburbs, with prices in Mosman down by over 7 per cent". What an absolute load of rubbish. The market is actually up this year by around 10 per cent, based on our statistics recorded, and the real test will be next week when the May auction results are posted. Now to add to the confusion, the article stated "The Residex figures measure repeat sales rather than median home prices". Well that would explain it, as the current average price for a home in Mosman is presently at an all time high at $1,785,349 and the figures for April will show the price climb higher.
The Internet came to the fore again this week when we posted two quite amazing sales, given that both purchasers never inspected the properties. One lives in the United Kingdom and another in Hong Kong. We sold a brand new apartment in the new Mirvac development in Hickson Road Walsh Bay for $1,795,000, and an apartment that had been on the market with another agent for six months in Shadforth Street for $1,342,500. Our Internet side of the business has now sold 94 properties, totalling $155,462,000. Now that is what I call a smart business plan! Both the properties in this case were identified exclusively on rwm.com.au. It just goes to show that some "never leave home without it". This week I read the most amazing quote by the author of The New New Thing, wherein Michael Lewis states "The future will be so different that the past will no longer even be able to serve as a reference - there'll be no point in examining track records when the race is no longer run on a track".
It will be very interesting to see how the 'Governor of Moolah' responds to the ascending 'Ozzie Ollar'. The meeting in early June could very well see a rate cut. Now that will make the property market very interesting! Given that we anticipate a strong auction result next week, June could very well have plenty of heat in it. So why not pop down to the auctions next Tuesday night, and Bon Appetit, as the menu will be awesome. Smoked salmon, creme fraiche and caper canapes, mushroom duxelle bouchee, prosciutto wrapped asparagus spears, plus a few more to whet the appetite. We are still deciding on the wine list, and I have always been partial to a soft Merlot in May. There is no point buying a property on an empty stomach!! Some offer Minties, but we much prefer to do our auctions differently as it is important that all our clients end up with a smile.
See you at the opens, or we will see you at the auctions. What you won't see is the Mosman market down 7 per cent. But there again, the vast majority already knew that!! I wish the guy who keeps writing this stuff, and who also wrote in January "Housing heads from boom to gloom" would subscribe to VRN. In all probability I will have to subscribe him myself. Now there is a clue!! Cheers...^__^
B
brains
Guest
Well, what else could he say?
I think that Mosman agent is in for quite a shock in the next 6 months - 1 year.
I think that Mosman agent is in for quite a shock in the next 6 months - 1 year.
Doom and Gloom
I think that the press talking down the market is great. What serious investor would want an out-of-control boom market followed by crash. It seams as though every man and his dog is now talking about investment RE. Steady as she goes and we can make the rational decisions that will continue to make us the $$$.
The National Investment Institute has put over 10,000 people through its RE course in the last 4 years. Thinking of all those wanabe investors snapping up everything they can with deposit bonds is very scary. The RB and the press should be talking caution and sense back into the market.
Every time I see another Doom and Gloom article I say thank you!
I think that the press talking down the market is great. What serious investor would want an out-of-control boom market followed by crash. It seams as though every man and his dog is now talking about investment RE. Steady as she goes and we can make the rational decisions that will continue to make us the $$$.
The National Investment Institute has put over 10,000 people through its RE course in the last 4 years. Thinking of all those wanabe investors snapping up everything they can with deposit bonds is very scary. The RB and the press should be talking caution and sense back into the market.
Every time I see another Doom and Gloom article I say thank you!
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B
brains
Guest
The problem the RB has is if it lowers interest rates to attempt to liven up a stagnant economy (or as in US, deflation) it will prolong or increase the property boom, leading to a big BUST in the future.
If and when rates go up at some time in the future, id say theres a lot of highly geared investors (and home owners doing it tough)
who just might have to default on loans.
What everyone wants is a soft landing for the property boom and the RB is playing it well so far. Will be interesting to see what the future brings, but i reckon the current state is unsustainable.
Im betting on a pretty severe price drop in property, especially the upper-mid end of the market in Syd/Melb.
Any other predictions?
If and when rates go up at some time in the future, id say theres a lot of highly geared investors (and home owners doing it tough)
who just might have to default on loans.
What everyone wants is a soft landing for the property boom and the RB is playing it well so far. Will be interesting to see what the future brings, but i reckon the current state is unsustainable.
Im betting on a pretty severe price drop in property, especially the upper-mid end of the market in Syd/Melb.
Any other predictions?
"The problem the RB has is if it lowers interest rates to attempt to liven up a stagnant economy (or as in US, deflation) it will prolong or increase the property boom, leading to a big BUST in the future."
Totally agree! I believe that's why it is unlikely that we will see a interest rate drop despite the fact that there should be one.
"If and when rates go up at some time in the future, id say theres a lot of highly geared investors (and home owners doing it tough)
who just might have to default on loans."
There r a lot of DINKUM's (Double Income No Kids Unbelievable Mortgage) and overgeared property investors out there at the moment. Generally it is a good time to reduce your LVR (investment risk). Have already been told that the market has dropped in Sydney especially for cbd units of which I have two. I am lucky enough to have good tenents. Though it is a very good time to buy units that have a lifestyle component such as fantastic views etc, they will always be the first to be rented/sold and should hold their value.
"What everyone wants is a soft landing for the property boom and the RB is playing it well so far. Will be interesting to see what the future brings, but i reckon the current state is unsustainable."
I think there is still another 5 years in the market. Don't forget what is driving a lot of this... the baby boomers wanting to set themselves up with a passive income in retirment. Read Harry S Dent 'The Roaring 2000's'. It also explains why there is the massive sea change where BB's are madly lifestyle investing. Most BB's will start retireing on-mass twards the end of this decade. That's probably the time to get out of the market.
Totally agree! I believe that's why it is unlikely that we will see a interest rate drop despite the fact that there should be one.
"If and when rates go up at some time in the future, id say theres a lot of highly geared investors (and home owners doing it tough)
who just might have to default on loans."
There r a lot of DINKUM's (Double Income No Kids Unbelievable Mortgage) and overgeared property investors out there at the moment. Generally it is a good time to reduce your LVR (investment risk). Have already been told that the market has dropped in Sydney especially for cbd units of which I have two. I am lucky enough to have good tenents. Though it is a very good time to buy units that have a lifestyle component such as fantastic views etc, they will always be the first to be rented/sold and should hold their value.
"What everyone wants is a soft landing for the property boom and the RB is playing it well so far. Will be interesting to see what the future brings, but i reckon the current state is unsustainable."
I think there is still another 5 years in the market. Don't forget what is driving a lot of this... the baby boomers wanting to set themselves up with a passive income in retirment. Read Harry S Dent 'The Roaring 2000's'. It also explains why there is the massive sea change where BB's are madly lifestyle investing. Most BB's will start retireing on-mass twards the end of this decade. That's probably the time to get out of the market.
There was an article on the 9msm site yesterday re Auction volumes.
http://sites.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/property/research/buyingproperty/story8.asp
http://sites.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/property/research/buyingproperty/story8.asp
It is all Past Indefinite Tense - i.e. last month data.
Strange to see them comparing April 2002 and April 2003. Was there war in Iraq back in 2002?
Sure, war has forced lots of potential buyers to postpone purchasing decisions. What we see now - they are all out in the wild feeding buying frenzy.
Strange to see them comparing April 2002 and April 2003. Was there war in Iraq back in 2002?
Sure, war has forced lots of potential buyers to postpone purchasing decisions. What we see now - they are all out in the wild feeding buying frenzy.
We hve seen major negative world events over the last two years, and while the 911 slowed the market for a while it did nothing to reverse the overall trend.
People have finally realised that the share market is not the place to be ( which means it probably will soon be...) so for those people who want to invest , there is only one game in town.
Low interest rates, with the experts now saying they expect them to remain low fuel the fire and as long as people remain employed they have no reason to sell.
Normally winter is not a good time to sell a house in sydney but it's not bad at the moment.
There are clouds on the horizon , but at the moment the sun is shining , and no one is looking.
Make hay while the sun shines.
see change
People have finally realised that the share market is not the place to be ( which means it probably will soon be...) so for those people who want to invest , there is only one game in town.
Low interest rates, with the experts now saying they expect them to remain low fuel the fire and as long as people remain employed they have no reason to sell.
Normally winter is not a good time to sell a house in sydney but it's not bad at the moment.
There are clouds on the horizon , but at the moment the sun is shining , and no one is looking.
Make hay while the sun shines.
see change
