Sydney-World Class City (part 11)

The weekend Sydney Morning Herald had a cover story article about the future population of Australia, depending on the choices the government may make over the coming years. It ranged from a reduced population of 17 million all the way up to 50 million if immigration were increased from the current 70,000 per year to over 130,000 per year. It gave various statistics as to water usage, land usage, the proposal that we would have to build the equivalent of 90 new Canberra’s to house all our new countrymen! Being a relatively new import myself, I have come across a range of reactions from those born and bred here. Many hate the idea of a massively growing population, as they state that part of Australia’s charm is the fact that there is space, and the cities are liveable (ever been to LA lately?!), while others see the economic benefits of a larger population – we could realistically have 3 internal airlines for instance if there were over 25 million of us!

Anyways, I guess we all have an opinion and mine was very much formed by attending a workshop by John McGrath, who runs Sydney’s most prestigious real estate agency. He was perhaps one of the most impressive speakers that I have heard – very knowledgeable, insightful and charismatic (I haven’t met too many RE’s like that!). One of the questions he addressed (this was 6 months ago) was “Are Sydney property prices over-priced?” His answer, though simple, struck a chord with me and I felt he summed it up fantastically. To paraphrase:

“Australians bemoan the fact that Sydney prices are so high. The fact is, by Australian standards they may well be but by world standards, Sydney is still incredibly inexpensive”. The end!

I am fortunate to work for an overseas airline and I get first-hand experience of different countries and cities and see them change over time. One of my favourite examples is Atlanta, Georgia in the US. It held the Olympic games in 1996 and although they weren’t considered a resounding success (will anyone ever do it as good as Sydney?!) the profile of the city changed during the closing years of the 90’s. CNN and Coke both had their headquarters there and that was basically its claim to fame. The games gave it a stage on which to shine and although it didn’t do the best job, it was good enough to propel it to become one of the most influential inland cities in the states. Huge corporations relocated, as Atlanta is considered to be in the sunbelt of the US and demographics are changing that many people both here and in the US prefer to live in warmer climates. The city underwent a renaissance and it now has the busiest airport in the world (handles over 80 million pax a year!!!), has become a medical super-centre, it’s colleges now attract students worldwide and it has simply grown a bit of muscle.

I believe Sydney has an even brighter future. It has a multi-cultural and multi-lingual workforce. It has perhaps the most beautiful setting in the world (on a par with Cape Town and San Francisco), by world standards it is perceived as safe and most importantly, it is inexpensive. Many companies that used to base their S.E. Asian operations in the big three Asian cities of Singapore, Hong Kong or Tokyo are now choosing Sydney. Why? Take a look at any property website that deals with those cities and it is crystal clear. Sydney can speak all Asian languages, it is in a stable country (Hong Kong has suffered since being handed back – even if it’s only perception) and it has business friendly policies (open to debate!).

As someone who has lived here for nearly 4 years, in that short time, I have seen Sydney begin to take it’s first tentative steps onto the wider world stage. It’s often been described as brash and garish – but look at it as Sydney’s pubescent period! It’s starting to get itself a name on the map. More performing artists now visit than they used to, more international companies are choosing Sydney over the Asian cities that have all sorts of “what-if” questions hanging over the longer-term financial and social structures. Australia’s economy has been the best in the world and whatever political persuasion you have, the government has done a pretty good job overall.

John McGrath went on to say that as we head into this century there will be two diminishing commodities that will be irreplaceable and once used, they will be gone. Those commodities are cheap sources of fuel and prime land. Neither can be created. While Australia will suffer with cheap fuel sources, Sydney at least has one of those irreplaceable commodities – prime land. Very, very few cities in the world have a setting as conducive to the lifestyle we enjoy in Sydney. You can’t make another harbour or northern beaches with a world-class city nearby! I own properties in London but I was unable to afford to buy them in prime land areas by the river or in some of the hillier suburbs. A two roomed unit overlooking the Thames river will normally cost you somewhere between A$3-4.5 million. You can still by in Manly, Coogee and other suburbs for well below that price, and they are likely to be larger.

So, even though at this point of the property cycle, we may not be inclined to buy, for those that are able to in future, Sydney (more so than any other Australian city) needs to be viewed as an international commodity – not just a local one. And if the government does change its immigration position and the general population grows, the scarcity factor of prime land will only ever escalate. If Australia is still thought of as the lucky country, then I consider myself to be very fortunate to live in the luckiest city!


Note: please don’t take offence if you live somewhere else – I just love Sydney and am biased!!!
 
Hi Clay,

A great post.

I last saw Atlanta in about 1986- and it was showing a lot of growth characteristics then. So it's not just an Olympic inspired thing.

I saw Mr McGrath in Sydney in the Spann "Graduate" forum. Was that the same forum you saw him? It was a great forum. John McGrath, Wayne Berry (negiation expert), Louise Bedford (stock market chartist).

And the best of all, Natalie Coook on the psychology of winning.

For Spann graduates it was $99. Or $99 for the double-videotape of the event.

I have those videotapes. Out on loan for the moment. Highly recommended.

But I would not want to advertise on a public forum that they're avalibale in a library-type situation (when they come back). Some vendors might not like that.
 
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Great to have your contributions Clay -- good thoughts and writing. Keep it up.

But I'm not entirely sure about Sydney being incredibly inexpensive by world standards. I saw some figures in the last few months that suggested that Australia-wide housing prices were something like 30% over standardised international norms simply because of our very high proportion of home ownership. (Aussie dream and all that)

From my occasional web-surfing of other countries real-estate agents sites I suspect that dollar for dollar we're high. But exchange rates obviously make a huge difference if you do come in from overseas.

Can someone else refresh my memory with the source of those figures? We might have even discussed it here on the forum?

Jeremy? - do you have an opinion on this?
 
Only just read this post. I am trying to pull off a Henry Kaye development/finance scam in London (Canary Wharf) at the moment, with the help of a friend there who incidentally I met about the same time as you guys, and through email. BUT the point is James (friend) is finding developers for me amenable to giving big discounts.

What we are looking at is stg350,000 ($1mAUD) with a 15-20% discount for early deposits, and a standard 10% deposit required on that value.

I got an email from him last night and it said "....properties from 310k and bigger than expected at 63sqm for a 1br + parking apartment"

Banks don't consider that a 1br apt here in Syd, and THAT INCLUDED THE PARKING SPACE!!!

Canary Wharf is a new area and likely (I think) to be oversupplied in the near term. Hence I think developers may be keen to 'help' a foreignor with finance.

I saw a property advertised as '....being typical of a few select properties we have available to let in the stg40,000 to stg50,000 ($AUD145,000) per WEEK

New York is similar, if not even higher. I prefer personally the UK, they speak our language better!

I have been very succesful buying rentals in Los Angeles and can thoroughly recommend it to anyone.

I have to agree that we are underpriced when compared to similar cities. London, New York, Paris, San Fran, Rome, Amsterdam etc. 5star cities are a select group, like them or hate them!

Check out http://www.propertyfinder.co.uk/ You dont often see a section 'stg10m+' in your average city's real estate finding service. stg10m is $AUD 29,000,000

I believe I am one of the first of a group of simple investors to not think that if people buy interstate they should use the same thinking to buy internationally. There is very little difference, and you get currency/economic/govt policy hedging. Trick is to pick good managers. Once you do that its not so hard. I have owned in LA since 99 and made substantial capital growth (in US$) and haven't yet been inside the properties. I own several about an hours drive away from my home I haven't been inside either - whats the difference? Bit like your local tourist attraction - You _may_ have been to the Grand Canyon, or Stonehenge (lasted better than strawhenge:)) but not your local museum, or the Gold Coast.

The world is getting smaller and like beach suburbs around SYD,MEL,BNE are going up cos people in those cities are thinking 'wow thats so cheap compared to the city' People like James in London MUST come to Sydney and think ' 3br 2 storey harbour view apartment for 1.5m Thats only 450kstg!! WOW'
 
I can't edit my last post cos frankly I think this website has progressed from good to mange in the useablility area, BUT the 1br units in the development I mentioned above are actually 55sqm and the two's are 63sqm. Pretty bloody small!
 
The trick to long distance investing is finance. I've bought long distance sight unseen. Nearly bought a commercial something in NZ that way too.

So how did you finance the US purchases? Local banks would need local income. Oz banks lending USD or STG? Secured against O/S property? The mind boggles. But very appealing.

Regards

Paul Zag
Dreamspinner
 
Originally posted by lawsjs
I can't edit my last post cos frankly I think this website has progressed from good to mange in the useablility area

You should be able to edit your own posts - anytime within 2 days of posting them.
 
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