Joe I agree the possibility of a lower share price is high.My bet would be lower than $50, perhaps as low as $20. Banks get absolutely clobbered in a property crash. It is one sector I avoid these days after having been bitten in the GFC. Good dividends at the moment but too risky.
When people today are carrying so much debt it doesn't take much to push them over the edge and our bank's reliance on property is high.
They can dance now counting their profits but there is no free lunch, one day they will have to pay for their irresponsible lending.
The other concern would be their exposure due to the value of the AUD.
If they have borrowed large sums of money overseas when the AUD was strong, how many more AUD's they will need to come up with when those loans mature in 5 or 10 years?
Anyway, food for thought....