The Mother of All Booms is Coming??

[Intrinsic_Value]

In fact my only criticism is with the name of this thread.

I would have thought that the mother of all booms occurred from the depth of the Australian recession in the mid 1990's to around 2003 which was the last peak in Sydney prices.

Although I could be talking out of my backside here.

 

[see_change]

Ahh so already trying to back track on that call

Not at all . Normally I dont make predictions outside of what's going to happen in the next year . It's just too unpredictable .... , but I'm happy to enter into debate over topics like that . I think you can be reasonable accurate on what is going to happen in the short term or in the long term eg 15 -20 years , but saying when the next peak or correction will happen is guess work .

However I'm happy to change my mind if I see evidence supporting a contrary view but I'm not seeing any thing to make me change my mind at this stage .

I still believe that is the likely outcome , however knowing that the chances of getting it right are more likely going to be due to luck rather than any great predictive ability on my behalf .

However , having said that , I do note that john Edwards , in his latest resides blog does have this to say .

If we assume the predicted growth rate in Table 2 is right, then Sydney will breach the million dollar median value in three years. However, the predictions are also indicating that growth rates are going to slow in the short term and then increase toward the end of the five year period. Hence it is probably more correct to assume that by the first half of 2019 Sydney will have a median property value of $1 million.

Cliff

 

[Deltaberry]

Let's just say, I have no doubt Sydney median house price has completely eclipsed gold price. In fact, if you leveraged on both, you would've made a handy few mil if not more in the former and be in a lot of strife from the latter.

 

[cu@thetop]

However , having said that , I do note that john Edwards , in his latest resides blog does have this to say .

If we assume the predicted growth rate in Table 2 is right, then Sydney will breach the million dollar median value in three years. However, the predictions are also indicating that growth rates are going to slow in the short term and then increase toward the end of the five year period. Hence it is probably more correct to assume that by the first half of 2019 Sydney will have a median property value of $1 million.

Cliff

John Edwards? Is he that guy who can talk to dead people. He's a genuine psychic!

I'm now facing the choice of holding or selling our soon to be vacated PPOR in Brisbane for the last 14 years. Bought cheap , $168k - now worth 530k I reckon. May be able to make another 40k with about 10k renos but there are a multitude of factors to consider. Last time I sold an old house in Ipswich in 2002 for what I bought it for in 1993 I would have doubled my money if I held it for another year. Currently due to relatively small loan to buy it is nor really suited for negative gearing. I can make it neutral or positively geared I expect leaving my new PPOR with a hefty non tax deductible loan. Whether Brisbane will boom or stagnate (don't really think it will go backwards) in the next year or two is therefore of supreme interest to me.

We will wait and see I expect.

 

[kum yin lau]

Hi, what I'd really like is to borrow Sash's crystal ball.

KY

 

[saiman]

Hi, what I'd really like is to borrow Sash's crystal ball.

KY

Agreed. Almost spot on.

What are your thoughts for the next 4 years?

 

[cu@thetop]

Agreed. Almost spot on.

What are your thoughts for the next 4 years?

You need to go to the Sashspectacular Property Investment Conference to find these things out. Some tickets still available
You may also want to pay for mentoring with Sash Sapphire programme.

On a serious note- Sash you got it pretty well spot on. I too would welcome your insights for the future (without paying the mentoring fee though).

 

[Moneyman_85]

Hi

I am seeing that Sydney is looking cheap compared to other states in terms of property prices. Even a global scale you can buy houses within 40 klms of the Sydney CBD for less than 400k. Even Melbourne, Adelaide, and Brisbane look cheap when you go out 30-40 klms.

I know that Gen Y don't like living in their suburbs but as they age they will change their expeactations just like my generation (Gen X) did. This along with high immigration, high birth rates (need for a backyard for kids), and an endemic structural planning issue which both the state and federal governments are failing to address is going to cause the lack of supply and thus the Mother of All Booms.

The article below also support some of what I am saying...

http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...ery-reserve-bank/story-e6frfmd0-1225838977173

So...what happens once this booms happens....just make sure you are not holding the can in 2014-2015..

Would love to hear other views.

QUOTE From Josko

I see 2012 as the year of the boom for Sydney


Looks like you guys were spot on, so whats on the cards for brisbane

 

[see_change]

QUOTE From Josko

I see 2012 as the year of the boom for Sydney


Looks like you guys were spot on, so whats on the cards for brisbane

Nup

2013 was the year of the boom .

One year out .... totally unacceptable ....

Cliff

 

[Scott No Mates]

Not if you were looking to buy pre-boom.

 

[Moneyman_85]

Pretty close lol I saw places in Rooty hill area rise fast in 2012

 

[BV]

the risk is the Sydney market. Mid 2015...would be a great time to sell and get out. Move quickly once the first interest rate rise is announced. Watchout 2017-2018....will be blood bath in Sydney! It started with cries of joys in Western Sydney..and it will end in tears there also.
.

These are my thoughts as well.

I started the process to sell 1 property now and will sell 1 more early next year.
My plan is to reduce debt and increase rental yields (I will also build 1 granny flat).
Interest rate rises could take a while so a big and sudden crash is unlikely but a correction (IMO) is coming .
Sydney Property prices have now moved to unrealistic levels so at some stage buyers will wake up and realize what they are getting into and will simply stop buying.

 

[sash]

An oldie but goodie which I have dug up based on the convos I had with some of the forum members at the Sydney meet-up and my thoughts.

Still calling a Sydney correction for 2018-2019 (yes a change from 2017-2018)....Brissie is tracking to take off...as Sydney eases sometime in the next 18-24 months. First step of Newman being voted out has happened.

Thanks MTR...I don't always get it right...

Great minds think alike....the risk is the Sydney market. Mid 2015...would be a great time to sell and get out. Move quickly once the first interest rate rise is announced. Watchout 2017-2018....will be blood bath in Sydney! It started with cries of joys in Western Sydney..and it will end in tears there also.

Perth is a real surprise...it seems to have avoided a bust and has cooled itself. The prices there are still affordable compared to Sydney and Melbourne. It is definitely a balanced market...which is good thing so prices will still move albeit slowly. It seems to have avoided a painful boom bust.

The real dark horse is Brissie....demand is solidifying...but no major price rises. I think you will see this once the Newman govt is voted out and Southerners again move to Brissie. Jobs have a lot to do with this.

. I think you will see this once the Newman govt is voted out and Southerners again move to Brissie.

now thats an odd combo

ta

rolf

You need to go to the Sashspectacular Property Investment Conference to find these things out. Some tickets still available
You may also want to pay for mentoring with Sash Sapphire programme.

On a serious note- Sash you got it pretty well spot on. I too would welcome your insights for the future (without paying the mentoring fee though).

 

[Ausprop]

why would brissie take off in the middle of a mining and oil slow down? And do people really make the move for cheaper housing?

 

[BV]

why would brissie take off in the middle of a mining and oil slow down? And do people really make the move for cheaper housing?

Good point Ausprop, and there is also the drop in economic activity in other sectors of the economy too.
I doubt that unemployed people will be able to get loans plus there is a lot of job insecurity felt all over atm so people won't be looking to add to existing debt.

Brisbane is cheaper than Sydney but it isn't cheap IMO.
There is some buying activity from interstate investors but prices have already moved and the yields aren't attractive, plus interstate investors have already been burned in mining areas so I doubt that they will be looking at Brisbane in big numbers.

Sydney is different because we had a chronic housing under supply of housing
but with the current pace of construction Sydney housing will also reach an oversupply stage very soon so rents and property prices should come down.
Unemployment is the big one, there is a lot of concern around atm.

IMHO

 

[Angel]

why would brissie take off in the middle of a mining and oil slow down? And do people really make the move for cheaper housing?

They did in each of the previous Brisbane booms that have occurred in my adult lifetime. Renters too will move to a cheaper place so they can rent with reasonable affordability.

 

[see_change]

Sydney investors buying in Brisbane is one factor. And once it starts it just becomes the herd mentality .

Fear of missing out

Pyschology 101

Cliff

 

[willair]

One of the biggest booms for Brisbane was the lead up and after the commonwaelth games 1982, only my opinion it's when prices started the 7 year cycle,the same may well happen with the lead up too the 2018 on the Gold Coast,you just never know..

http://www.commonwealthgames.org.au/page/39/2018-gold-coast-games

 

[BV]

Sydney investors buying in Brisbane is one factor. And once it starts it just becomes the herd mentality .
Cliff

I doubt it, this time we don't have mining boosting the economy.
Even NSW is weak and if we didn't have housing construction many of us would be unemployed.
I'd hate to think what's going to happen when all the construction finishes in 8 or 12 or so months time and no new developments start because the buyers have dissapeared

 

[skater]

I'd hate to think what's going to happen when all the construction finishes in 8 or 12 or so months time and no new developments start because the buyers have dissapeared

There's always buyers......for the right price that is.

Sydney is an ever growing City. Realistically, when construction stops, it will put more & more pressure on rents, pushing prices up, and tenants will have no option to either pay more, or move further from the City.

As rents & housing prices move at a different time, we will see a 'boom' in rental prices, so yields will move on up to a more acceptable level.