to me is still a bouncing cat, from the technical point it could be a bouncing cat as well. now the S&P500 is close to 38.2 FIB level and could retrace up to 50% FIB level
The recession's over
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to me is still a bouncing cat, from the technical point it could be a bouncing cat as well. now the S&P500 is close to 38.2 FIB level and could retrace up to 50% FIB level
what?
i thought this an aus thread...?
i thought this an aus thread...?
I was only half right on the "bouncing cat" thread but I did concede that it was a "tradable" rally.
Well it traded longer than I thought it would, much longer. I take a longer view though and still think it was a dead india rubber cat so I'm only lightly committed.
You know what I think of Au/Ag, well I think they will be hammered again too, it's still a good time to be a spectator.
ps In case you think I have done nothing, I did make enough to buy a tinnie to sit in while passing the time. Will get it on the water this weekend.
Well it traded longer than I thought it would, much longer. I take a longer view though and still think it was a dead india rubber cat so I'm only lightly committed.
You know what I think of Au/Ag, well I think they will be hammered again too, it's still a good time to be a spectator.
ps In case you think I have done nothing, I did make enough to buy a tinnie to sit in while passing the time. Will get it on the water this weekend.
as property in aus doesn't track the US one (at least in the medium-short term), the share market are very much linked to each other and very much the ASX track the much bigger S&P500 as WW point out. You can still trade the ASX but i would strongly recommend to use the TA and fundamental analysis on the S&P500 ahead of any other market.
nah.....more and more ships aren't going anywhere.....check the Baltic Dry Index since june 3, 09.
500, 200......much the same...in fact, the 500 leads the 200 a lot....never seen it the other way around though....
I'm no day trader but I have the impression that the ASX often gives a lead on where the NYSE is going that night. Trouble is, the Yanks can have a big move that is not predicted here. Bummer!
We never have one on our Pat Malone.I'm no day trader but I have the impression that the ASX often gives a lead on where the NYSE is going that night. Trouble is, the Yanks can have a big move that is not predicted here. Bummer!
No way!
first when the asx is trading the S&P futures are trading as well, during this financial chrisis market are much more linked than before. If any other market will have some lead the Nikkei from Japan and London will have lead over other regional markets. but it can happen that the ASX outperform or underperform other markets, usually in relation on how commodity are doing that day.
You misread me Boz. I did not say the Yanks do anything, absolutely anything, because we do. What I meant was that the ASX reacts "reasonably" to the conditions on the day. Often the US reacts the same, ie we are 12 hours ahead.
When sitting here at night while the family is watching "Dancing With ********s" I often look at the pre-market on CNN. I'd back the ASX as the better indicator. But that is all subjective. We are loosening our tight ties to the US markets. I do not suggest we are free or that we tell the US traders what to do on the day but the winds of change are upon us.
When sitting here at night while the family is watching "Dancing With ********s" I often look at the pre-market on CNN. I'd back the ASX as the better indicator.
But that is all subjective. We are loosening our tight ties to the US markets. I do not suggest we are free or that we tell the US traders what to do on the day but the winds of change are upon us.wow - i'd never noticed the SP500 influences the ASX200.
i know the Russell2000 and the SP500 are closely tied - one tends to pull the other - but that's great - i can take today's lead after watching the 500.
interesting tonight. my RDR was up 80% today - pity i only had $2500 on it coz it was a bit speculative....
i know the Russell2000 and the SP500 are closely tied - one tends to pull the other - but that's great - i can take today's lead after watching the 500.
interesting tonight. my RDR was up 80% today - pity i only had $2500 on it coz it was a bit speculative....
yeah you are probably right.....the trading week and day starts in Auckland, so the world must take its lead from there.......
hey SF....that wasn't aimed at you.......rather I was toying with BC.....I thought everyone took it for granted the US market is the centre of the universe.....even though it has lost % share of global market cap in in the last 5 years, it is still the biggest by far...via share of global market capitalization.... and their % free float (the tradeable component of stock market) is high. China has a smaller stock market with an even smaller free float (19% I think), which makes its stock market 6x smaller than USA.
Table from Bespoke June 2008
An abstract from an economics paper affirming the US leads the DAX.
Towards identifying the world stock market cross-correlations: DAX versus Dow Jones
hey SF....that wasn't aimed at you.......rather I was toying with BC.....I thought everyone took it for granted the US market is the centre of the universe.....even though it has lost % share of global market cap in in the last 5 years, it is still the biggest by far...via share of global market capitalization.... and their % free float (the tradeable component of stock market) is high. China has a smaller stock market with an even smaller free float (19% I think), which makes its stock market 6x smaller than USA.
Table from Bespoke June 2008
An abstract from an economics paper affirming the US leads the DAX.
Towards identifying the world stock market cross-correlations: DAX versus Dow Jones
Not sure those gains are all transformed in same currency measure.
anyhow what make market capitalisation is not just share market gains but also newly listed company.
Also there could be some dodgy data, for example RIO and BHP are listed in Australia, UK and US, how do you consider capitalisation in those market? usually it is considered just in the market of the country where the company is based but that is not an accurate measure.
more then studing weather the US markets lead the others (that is obvious) would be interesting to study weather the S&P500 futures leads other markets or is Tokio and London leading the S&P500 futures?
SF, I don't know whether the reduced US share of global market cap is due to contraction of their market or growth of the global market. Considering their GDP has not gone backwards significntly, I'd presume it is more of the latter.
Interestingly, global market cap was 57.5T in May08 and 40T in Oct08. So the GFC saw 18T pulled out of the markets, and probably stuck in bonds or cash. Would be interesting to know what it is back up to now, and even more interesting to know what % of the 18T was fiat money and not leverage (margin loans etc).
Interestingly, global market cap was 57.5T in May08 and 40T in Oct08. So the GFC saw 18T pulled out of the markets, and probably stuck in bonds or cash. Would be interesting to know what it is back up to now, and even more interesting to know what % of the 18T was fiat money and not leverage (margin loans etc).
doesn't work like that ww, a bit like houses that you just need to have last home sold in the street for 10% more that all houses in the street have value up around 10%, you don't need all houses of the street to be sold to find out the capitalisation, same thing with share market, and you need few shares exchange to have new market capitalisation and not all shares need to be sold. I believe most of those 18 T went in smoke and most of the recent gains came from thin air
I think we are saying the same thing Boz. The value of Australia's dwellings went up to ~3.5T during the last boom. Suddenly everyone feels they are wealthy because of the additional 2T+ in housing values. But that value has been 'manufactured' due to credit money lent out on the houses sold during the boom. Fractional reserve banking and looser lending criteria magically produced it out of nothing.
Is the 2T capital reflecting past or present income/production? No....
It is a claim on future income/production...
As I implied, some of the 18T that disappeared out of the markets would have represented stored wealth from past income/production (swf's, pension funds, personal savings) and some would have been credit money (leverage via margin loans etc)
I was expressiing curiosity about the relative % of each.
ok, i understand what you mean, as i said before i monitor the 10-30 year us treasure futures to see where money goes, and also i monitor 10 year bond yield of major countries. the last month share market boom didn't push up yield like few months back, so seems major economy are succeding in reinflating the economy.
The bottom line is that correct pricing of company and assets need to be sustainable in the long term and current data doesn't agree with that: p/e is not good, CPI is still low and unemployment rising, confidence up (not much room to go higher as room to go lower), gov budget as bad as never before, great majority of investor are bull on sharemarket... so there is a big chance thigs will bubble up again, and my opinion is that entire countries will get in big trouble. but could be a while before things change and turn bad again
Hi all,
WW,
I disagree, I think it is a claim on future new money creation, which is limitless.
Almost certainly not. That 18T was never really there in the first place and certainly didn't come out of the market. The concept of it being there disappeared. The prices are set at the margin.
As a crude example if BHP was worth $100b and there were 1b shares on issue, if only 10 shares changed hands but the price of those shares went from $100 to $90, suddenly the company has 'lost' $10b of market cap, yet only $900 came out of the market to go somewhere else. Of course that $900 was new money going into the sharemarket from somewhere else.
It's all about supply and demand for the shares traded.
bye
WW,
I disagree, I think it is a claim on future new money creation, which is limitless.
Almost certainly not. That 18T was never really there in the first place and certainly didn't come out of the market. The concept of it being there disappeared. The prices are set at the margin.
As a crude example if BHP was worth $100b and there were 1b shares on issue, if only 10 shares changed hands but the price of those shares went from $100 to $90, suddenly the company has 'lost' $10b of market cap, yet only $900 came out of the market to go somewhere else. Of course that $900 was new money going into the sharemarket from somewhere else.
It's all about supply and demand for the shares traded.
bye
i like the idea of claim on future money creation, not sure about the limitless, every economy has a finite limit of goods and assets, if money gets limitless you can't get any appropriate pricing and the concept of money gets pointless (and then people start to create a different/parallel money system like gold). on the other hand if those 2 tril$ created are not spent then it has no impact on economy, but Australian spend most of it (even for buying more property if not just for consuming) so it does effect future economy growth like WW point out.
