Maybe you are right. Maybe it is just "a motive". I mean when you really think about it, he would not be saving anyone as such. The debt needs to be transferred from one person to another, so society as a whole would not benefit from acting on his information. I mean, it isnt really a noble gesture as some people might say.
The self fulfilling prophecy of Steve Keen
- Thread starter joe jo jo
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Maybe you are right. Maybe it is just "a motive". I mean when you really think about it, he would not be saving anyone as such. The debt needs to be transferred from one person to another, so society as a whole would not benefit from acting on his information. I mean, it isnt really a noble gesture as some people might say.
motive
Several posts here have claimed that all Keen is doing is promoting his work? his theoretical analysis. I completely disagree.
I don't believe anyone watching any of the news programs from 60 minutes to the 7:30 report was any wiser about Keens theory at the end of it.
The only thing they take away from it is his "predictions" that is the sensationalist part of his rhetoric i.e. 20% unemployment (10-15% whatever it is right now) and 40% price falls. The questions revolve around.. "what do you think will happen" "what can we do to survive?" handing him the bat and hes only to happy to swing.
This is my biggest grip about him i.e. that he is so self indulgent as to take his "theory" as a given and then simply model predictions based of it.
His theory is not in line (rightly or wrongly) with common consensus so to promote its predictions is just plain wrong.
And i wish i could say the reason Keen is doing this is due to "self interest" in terms of money that would be atleast tolerable i.e. sell more books "debunking economics" but I believe its more to do with vanity and bitterness. For years no one would listen to his drivel and now they are and he sees this as recognition at last.. a life not wasted.
Unfortunately he has found recognition in the wrong place i.e. self promotion rather that the reality on the ground.
Media will turn on him just as quick as they came to embrace him.. its unfortunate that hes so vain he cant even see thats the ultimate outcome...
Several posts here have claimed that all Keen is doing is promoting his work? his theoretical analysis. I completely disagree.
I don't believe anyone watching any of the news programs from 60 minutes to the 7:30 report was any wiser about Keens theory at the end of it.
The only thing they take away from it is his "predictions" that is the sensationalist part of his rhetoric i.e. 20% unemployment (10-15% whatever it is right now) and 40% price falls. The questions revolve around.. "what do you think will happen" "what can we do to survive?" handing him the bat and hes only to happy to swing.
This is my biggest grip about him i.e. that he is so self indulgent as to take his "theory" as a given and then simply model predictions based of it.
His theory is not in line (rightly or wrongly) with common consensus so to promote its predictions is just plain wrong.
And i wish i could say the reason Keen is doing this is due to "self interest" in terms of money that would be atleast tolerable i.e. sell more books "debunking economics" but I believe its more to do with vanity and bitterness. For years no one would listen to his drivel and now they are and he sees this as recognition at last.. a life not wasted.
Unfortunately he has found recognition in the wrong place i.e. self promotion rather that the reality on the ground.
Media will turn on him just as quick as they came to embrace him.. its unfortunate that hes so vain he cant even see thats the ultimate outcome...
Completely disagree with this point. imho conflicting views are part of a healthy society. Fringe ideas and "devil's advocates" help keep us in check. They get us to check our assumptions and decisions to see if they are still valid. Otherwise you end up with self-enforcing "group think" where confrimation-bais runs riot and lemming-like behaviour becomes the norm.
Therories that are out of line with common consensus are the cornerstone of human progress. Think Magellan, Newton, Einstein...
Thats valid
if he's been banging on with this theory for the last 30 years (as i thought i read somewhere in one of the sk posts by one of his supporters) then he has missed out on two of the biggest property booms in history, and the ability to retire a multimillionaire (ie, jan somers atal) ... wouldn't that make one bitter a desirous of their vindicated "time in the sun".
for me to take him seriously, as one who knows what he's talking about, he would have taken advantage of the booms (and busts) that have occured during the time he's been pushing his theory.
sorry - but the fact that he has only one opinion - that happens to be right for the first time in the 30 years he's been predicting it - gives him no credibility in my eyes.
and i am not a "eyes closed" bull - i am an optimist who reads and assimilates both the good and bad before making decisions.
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I have always believed extremism is the catalyst for achievement for the human race. Nothing ever progresses with everyone sitting in the middle agreeing with each other.
Even my mate Frank agrees with me:
"Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible."
Frank Vincent Zappa
Even my mate Frank agrees with me:
"Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible."
Frank Vincent Zappa
settle down and read that sentence again... I have no problem debating theory... all for it even Keens.
I have a real and fundamental issue when you jump over arguing the theory and indulge in extrapolating predictions based on unproven theories.
And i will think of Einstein, Magellan, Newton none predicted the future only Keen is so ingenious to do that.
I have a real and fundamental issue when you jump over arguing the theory and indulge in extrapolating predictions based on unproven theories.
And i will think of Einstein, Magellan, Newton none predicted the future only Keen is so ingenious to do that.
by the way I cannot believe you have put Keen in the same category of radical thinkers as Newton or Einstein...
also very valid
this is departing the realms of rational thought... we are not debating string theory here.. or the existence of the god particle...
we are debating whether the debt level of today will have an impact on unemployment and asset prices in the order of magnitude of what Keen is saying...
His theory is not radical... his prediction is.
I find this debate has entered the land of airy fairy where his supporters are now accepting his fringe analysis and extreme views on the grounds its healthy debate.. or more incredibly tantamount to radical thought like that of Einstein.
we are talking about known variables.. sheesh... come back down to earth guys.
we are debating whether the debt level of today will have an impact on unemployment and asset prices in the order of magnitude of what Keen is saying...
His theory is not radical... his prediction is.
I find this debate has entered the land of airy fairy where his supporters are now accepting his fringe analysis and extreme views on the grounds its healthy debate.. or more incredibly tantamount to radical thought like that of Einstein.
we are talking about known variables.. sheesh... come back down to earth guys.
As i explained to Bayview the other day, maybe he doesn't share our materialist values. He's an academic after all.
Believe it or not, there are a lot of people out there that wouldn't have a clue what a 'property cycle' is and they are no lesser people for that.
I'm sure he would know as he's an economist but my point is it might not matter to him if he does or doesn't accumulate wealth with property.
There are plenty of other ways to wealth and a lot you don't have to wait 10-20 years for. Who knows what he does (or owns). Maybe wealth is not important to him at all, and there's nothing wrong with that. That i can see anyway.
Believe it or not, there are a lot of people out there that wouldn't have a clue what a 'property cycle' is and they are no lesser people for that.
I'm sure he would know as he's an economist but my point is it might not matter to him if he does or doesn't accumulate wealth with property.
There are plenty of other ways to wealth and a lot you don't have to wait 10-20 years for. Who knows what he does (or owns). Maybe wealth is not important to him at all, and there's nothing wrong with that. That i can see anyway.
This is absurd. So if he is a socialist tree hugger happy to live off the earth and his idea of material well being is rainbows and happiness gives him the right to be wrong for 30 years?
This is the most absurd comment i have read on SS.
This is the most absurd comment i have read on SS.
I was making the point for considering radical theories. Radical theories are sometimes correct, useful and valid but I'd agree that more often there are just radical theories. But just because they don't support the consensus view is no reason in of itself why they shouldn't be promoted.
The use of Newton and co was to give some examples of people who had radical ideas, which were completely outside the consensus view, and which made a marked difference on human knowledge. I don't think that I included Keen in the same category as those people. Perhaps you need to "settle down and read that sentence again".
In terms of predicting the future, well only the future will be the judge of who was right. There are lots of people making predictions and some of them will be right.
Easy on the personal stuff mate.
Who said he is all that? Where did you get that from?
I'm just saying maybe he has no desire to be wealthy (like a lot of people) and theres nothing at all wrong with that.
It seems to be taken for granted a lot on the forum that the rest of society shares the pursuit of wealth as do members of the forum. And if they don't share that view, they should. Or else be labeled 2nd class human beings.
Now i find that absurd. And i'm as capitalist as they come (or close) but i do acknowledge its not for everyone.
Who said he is all that? Where did you get that from?
I'm just saying maybe he has no desire to be wealthy (like a lot of people) and theres nothing at all wrong with that.
It seems to be taken for granted a lot on the forum that the rest of society shares the pursuit of wealth as do members of the forum. And if they don't share that view, they should. Or else be labeled 2nd class human beings.
Now i find that absurd. And i'm as capitalist as they come (or close) but i do acknowledge its not for everyone.
so tiring.. read the sentence see the key word... "IF"... "So *IF* he is a so.... i wasnt being personal....
and for your current comments they have gone of on such a tangent theres no point in me continuing..
good luck with it all though... have a sneaking suspicion this thread too will go the way of the dodo and get locked..
maybe we should all stop talking about Keen for atleast a week... now theres a radical thought.
and for your current comments they have gone of on such a tangent theres no point in me continuing..
good luck with it all though... have a sneaking suspicion this thread too will go the way of the dodo and get locked..
maybe we should all stop talking about Keen for atleast a week... now theres a radical thought.
Well, I think he does, otherwise he wouldnt be selling his apartment because he was worried it was going to lose 40%. He would simply say, this is my home I dont care what it is worth in 5 years time.
Academics love publicity. It apparently gives them credibility.
Evand
This comment seems to be drawing a long bow, generalist in nature and obviously insulting to most on the forum.
Perhaps you could keep your comments to the thread of the topic instead of having a swipe at the group. There are threads in this forum showing the generosity of members towards the less fortunate and I am sure that there are many who quietly go about their philanthropy. Your comment says more about the poster than the forum, IMHO, and doesn't reflect well at all.
Yours in polite discussion.
Shane
Let's not put him on those levels and instead compare him to Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Nicholas Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, Satyajit Das, Mike Shedlock ...
All bloggers/economists/business people who predicted the current situation yet were shouted down for years. Keen's analysis doesn't deviate too far from this lot.
in that case, Keen must be right. Hang on, didnt Schiff say Aust had good odds at getting through this
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