Brighton, Toorak Valcluse are price leaders with big numbers. Fifty percent of a national mean of say $350,000 is $175,000, some will be more some will be less but it still adds up to 50%
The soft depression has arrived
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Brighton, Toorak Valcluse are price leaders with big numbers. Fifty percent of a national mean of say $350,000 is $175,000, some will be more some will be less but it still adds up to 50%
We all need to invest in our veggie growing skills & build a chicken run.... TC, Y-man & I will be fine... I'm a bit worried about you though NR
Err... actually the chicken run bit is a bit of a pain.... have shelved the project for now. We are looking at "no purchased feed" methods (i.e. we grow all their feed requirements) but it's a bit more land intensive than our little garden can manage. Buying feed (plus birds and other incidentals) make buying eggs seem more financially viable - until the price of eggs skyrocket of course!
Cheers,
The Y-man
And why shall professional property investor give a damn to suburbs twice or more above median? If you do not know in that price range property market simply does not exist. it is driven by sharemarket bubbles, resource bubbles, property bubbles - reasons for growth there are all ill-conceived. When uderlying bubble bursts, so does the expensive property. Has nothing to do with dynamics of mainstream market and property investment. Your Brighton will boom eventually, but it will boom the last and stagnate first. You are not an investor if you fancy anything like this.
Geez lucky I read the whole thread I had one foot over the edge already!
This is really interesting stuff but don't you chaps have any work to do? LOL
Essance;
I'll give the benifit of the doubt and assume you think we are resi investors because you have not gone back and looked at a lot of my posts. Most of what we invest in is commercial property also in Brighton. So if I was investing in commercial properties in Collins street I also would not in you eyes be a "real investor" either?
If you class buying real estate out the back blocks of Bourke as being a real investor each to its own. Considering that between 1996 and 2007 Brighton increased in value by a factor of x5 in 11 years that isn't too shabby a result mate. If that is not being a real investor I'll continue to be in on that
We have heard a lot of reasoning behind why things over here are going to get real bad. Most of the reasoning does not talk about one thing that has actually always been the prime factor behind booms and busts. That is confidence.
Sure, confidence is down at the moment. It always has been during recessions, but eventually things change. People are constantly thinking, evaluating situations (like asset prices) and confidence among masses gradually builds up. It could be one global event they could be the turning point. Usually, the first lot of people to move are the smart investors. Most people will see the turning point in hindsight.
Just like it doesn't take long for people to lose confidence it doesn't take long for people to gain confidence. There is no reasoning or measurement you can put behind it. The increases in sharemarket and property bull run were beyond anyones imagination. But it did happen. I just don't see the situation over here deteriorate at the rate it did in the US and UK. Why, because Australia is not US and UK. Sure, we are part of global economy and therefore we have been affected but why do we have to be affected by the same scale?
The US and UK both have been in recession for quite some time now. If Australia were to experience the kind of recession the UK and US are experiencing don't you think it would have happened by now?
Hindsight has always been a good thing, everybody knows that the subprime and GFC caused the current recession and why did asset prices increase to the level they did. During the height of the boom almost everyone came up with theories as to why the current prices of assets still had a long way to go up. But that didn't happen. In the same why during recession we see lot of people claiming assets prices still have a long way to go down. No body knows for sure and the person who does do not go out telling everyone about it they will act and benefit from it.
Just my 2 cents
Cheers,
Oracle.
Sure, confidence is down at the moment. It always has been during recessions, but eventually things change. People are constantly thinking, evaluating situations (like asset prices) and confidence among masses gradually builds up. It could be one global event they could be the turning point. Usually, the first lot of people to move are the smart investors. Most people will see the turning point in hindsight.
Just like it doesn't take long for people to lose confidence it doesn't take long for people to gain confidence. There is no reasoning or measurement you can put behind it. The increases in sharemarket and property bull run were beyond anyones imagination. But it did happen. I just don't see the situation over here deteriorate at the rate it did in the US and UK. Why, because Australia is not US and UK. Sure, we are part of global economy and therefore we have been affected but why do we have to be affected by the same scale?
The US and UK both have been in recession for quite some time now. If Australia were to experience the kind of recession the UK and US are experiencing don't you think it would have happened by now?
Hindsight has always been a good thing, everybody knows that the subprime and GFC caused the current recession and why did asset prices increase to the level they did. During the height of the boom almost everyone came up with theories as to why the current prices of assets still had a long way to go up. But that didn't happen. In the same why during recession we see lot of people claiming assets prices still have a long way to go down. No body knows for sure and the person who does do not go out telling everyone about it they will act and benefit from it.
Just my 2 cents
Cheers,
Oracle.
This is one of the smartest things I have heard someone say.
All what you say makes perfect sense!
The real economy is all about people's confidence and psychology.
The trouble confidence is still taking a battering at the moment.....hopefully it will turn the corner shortly.
All what you say makes perfect sense!
The real economy is all about people's confidence and psychology.
The trouble confidence is still taking a battering at the moment.....hopefully it will turn the corner shortly.
We have heard a lot of reasoning behind why things over here are going to get real bad. Most of the reasoning does not talk about one thing that has actually always been the prime factor behind booms and busts. That is confidence.
Sure, confidence is down at the moment. It always has been during recessions, but eventually things change. People are constantly thinking, evaluating situations (like asset prices) and confidence among masses gradually builds up. It could be one global event they could be the turning point. Usually, the first lot of people to move are the smart investors. Most people will see the turning point in hindsight.
Just like it doesn't take long for people to lose confidence it doesn't take long for people to gain confidence. There is no reasoning or measurement you can put behind it. The increases in sharemarket and property bull run were beyond anyones imagination. But it did happen. I just don't see the situation over here deteriorate at the rate it did in the US and UK. Why, because Australia is not US and UK. Sure, we are part of global economy and therefore we have been affected but why do we have to be affected by the same scale?
The US and UK both have been in recession for quite some time now. If Australia were to experience the kind of recession the UK and US are experiencing don't you think it would have happened by now?
Hindsight has always been a good thing, everybody knows that the subprime and GFC caused the current recession and why did asset prices increase to the level they did. During the height of the boom almost everyone came up with theories as to why the current prices of assets still had a long way to go up. But that didn't happen. In the same why during recession we see lot of people claiming assets prices still have a long way to go down. No body knows for sure and the person who does do not go out telling everyone about it they will act and benefit from it.
Just my 2 cents
Cheers,
Oracle.
Essance;
I'll give the benifit of the doubt and assume you think we are resi investors because you have not gone back and looked at a lot of my posts. Most of what we invest in is commercial property also in Brighton. So if I was investing in commercial properties in Collins street I also would not in you eyes be a "real investor" either?
If you class buying real estate out the back blocks of Bourke as being a real investor each to its own. Considering that between 1996 and 2007 Brighton increased in value by a factor of x5 in 11 years that isn't too shabby a result mate. If that is not being a real investor I'll continue to be in on that
No wonder you are so depressed. I sort of was always amused by bravery of the people who invest in commercial RE. I can not understand what possesses people to do that. You are getting the same stupidly wild rides as on share market without any benefit of hight liquidity. Commercial downturns are sudden, deep and quick - no time to react. Commercial lending gets spoiled first and very quick. Renos are useless (as means to add value), as new tenants want their own colours and fitout.
You shall really start every day with mantra: "Investing in commercial I can and I will loose the money." I am sorry, but there will be no good news for you mate for a very long time.
Your mortal sin - you are investing into something that people can easily do without.
And frankly - your investment is based on stupidity and laziness of companys' management. With current broadband capabilities you do not need offices. Everyone can work from home.
This is plainly terrible.
*waits for Dazz*
Have you read "Das Kapital" of comrade Marx? This is the ONLY true economic theory. After you throw away all the crap about what Communist Society will be like.
What a load of bollocks
Some can work from home, the vast majority can not, and since when has commercial only been office space?
Dave
me three can't be that far away!
Eski
Thanks for clearing up that misconception I had about you mate.
It must be terrible carrying such a heavy chip on your shoulder. I don't have any loose money because any I carry with me is in my wallet.Tell me eski how many shoe boxes out back of bourke do you have mortgaged to the bank ?
So when your crappy little resi tenants "lose" their job and the tribunal won't allow you to throw them and the kids out in the street and your up for all the outgoings how smart an investor are you mate ?
You say your amused by the bravery of investors in commercial RE. Mate you don't have any cahones ? http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=cahones
I'm much appreciative of your thimble full of property nouse and have duly lodged it in my circular file not being smart as you, being able to run your business in cyber space
I think you better get a sharper pair of shears for those tall poppies your trying to cut down mate.
Eski
Thanks for clearing up that misconception I had about you mate.
Tell me eski how many shoe boxes out back of bourke do you have mortgaged to the bank ?
So when your crappy little resi tenants "lose" their job and the tribunal won't allow you to throw them and the kids out in the street and your up for all the outgoings how smart an investor are you mate ?
You say your amused by the bravery of investors in commercial RE. Mate you don't have any cahones ? http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=cahones
.
I'm much appreciative of your thimble full of property nouse and have duly lodged it in my circular file not being smart as you, being able to run your business in cyber space
I think you better get a sharper pair of shears for those tall poppies your trying to cut down mate.
OK - understood - your D&G is just medical problem. Otherwise you are fine.
Do you really believe this whole crisis is simply one of lack of confidence? That if we as a collective just start to move past the doom and gloom, we'll be on our way to a new boom? That boom's can go on indefinately with small pauses in between?
We've had a debt fuelled binge on a fiat currency for over a generation. It's time to pay up.
Confidence , lack of it , or over confidence is the underlying driving force. It's widely accepted as the driving force in the driving force in the share market. ( Elder is a Psychiatrist who has written several influential books on the subject with regards to the share market ) Technical analysis is basically an attempt to analyse crowd behaviour.
Obviously underlying fundamentals do have an impact , but they don't explain the depth and rapidity of changes . Once a particular trend is established , it takes a long time and a lot of changes in underlying fundamentals for that market to change direction . That's part of the reason why I think that the current increase in lower priced properties is a dead cat bounce. Out side the FHOG , nothing else has changed and I don't think that is enough to trigger a widespread change in confidence.
If people relied on common sense in their dealings , they wouldn't have come up with the need to create the various financial instruments on steroids that have been in a large part responsible for the leveraging that has occured.
Over confidence in their ability and the products they created.
Cliff
Thank you for enlightening. And I stupidly thought that moving from expensive rent to cheaper mortgage is a common sense.
me four - i'll call him and let him know about this thread.
Dazz is out of town. I'm sure he'll post when he gets back.
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