The soft depression that we had to have

[nonrecourse]

The signs have been there for a year

no offence, but banks laying off staff is no huge economic surprise - especially a bank with their head up their **** like Citibank.

So then if financial institutions who are dependent on lending for housing and providing credit for business's are contracting their ability to service this, do you not recognise a corollary that a serious correction in property values is a reasonable outcome?

 

[AUSPROP...]

presents an opportunity for the big 4

 

[Peter 14.7]

So then if financial institutions who are dependent on lending for housing and providing credit for business's are contracting their ability to service this, do you not recognise a corollary that a serious correction in property values is a reasonable outcome?

Sotry but No.

In 1988 the banks took a bath on Quintex and Bond Corp and others.
Fast forward to 2008 and dejavu with ABC Learning, Allco Finance, and Centro.

The more high risk banks like Mac Bank, Citi, etc.. are the ones who will cut because they income they got from the above when times were good, aint there. Commsec could be shaky as well as people stop share trading like it is a game.

On a personal note I am sorry to hear you son is almost retrenched at 19. On the positive side they kept him.

My advice is, be sure he is safe as being the first to go can be advantageous. If they let him go in 6 months the job market can be worst and his mates got all the work. I was first out at the Architects and got another job in 2 weeks. Others went eventually over 18 months and struggled despite being better than me.

Peter

 

[Aaron Sice]

So then if financial institutions who are dependent on lending for housing and providing credit for business's are contracting their ability to service this, do you not recognise a corollary that a serious correction in property values is a reasonable outcome?

nope - citi is a second tier lender reliant on exorbitant CC interest rates and stupid high fees to generate their own income. they rely on funding from major lenders for their dodgy hybrid trust deals on lo-doc, in the hope they can onsell that money at a higher rate, taking in the questionable deals as a sort of "take it or leave it" strategy.

they held many developers to ransom, so you reap what you sow. lat time i looked, there were many lender and institutions willing to lend to those with a track record.

 

[trendsta]

Hi NR,
You predicted 3500 with conviction many months ago, when others scoffed. Here we are today sub 3500… Brilliant pick.. Congrats !

 

[Sunfish]

Hi NR,
You predicted 3500 with conviction many months ago, when others scoffed. Here we are today sub 3500… Brilliant pick.. Congrats !

There have been many well intentioned posters here warning that the good times are ending and NR has been the latest and very persistent. I would have (did) give up long before so I congratulate him for that.

If some perma-bulls here had stopped arguing for a bit and read with an open mind they may have prepared for this. The details were unknowable but the train-wreck was very obvious for years.

 

[nonrecourse]

Perhaps what we need is a thread that focuses on how to cope with the liqudity drought that is about to squeeze property investors

 

[feihong]

Perhaps what we need is a thread that focuses on how to cope with the liqudity drought that is about to squeeze property investors

Please start the thread ASAP, looking forward to it!

 

[Token Funder]

Please start the thread ASAP, looking forward to it!

Some of us have been flagging it for a year...I think the horse has already bolted.

 

[Ausprop]

time to start flagging the upside. that interview with Buffet was very encouraging. he doesnt seem to share my pessimism on the USD which has me questioning this now

 

[Sunfish]

time to start flagging the upside. that interview with Buffet was very encouraging.

Did you get sucked in by that? He was desperately talking up the US but he would, wouldn't he. LOL

He has copped a draw-down of a cool billion on his investment in GE if he bought on the same terms available to us. Wanna bet he he has screwed GE for terms unavailable to us?

By all means read Berkshire Hathaway's annual reports to gain some sense of proportion (Buffett has that in spades) but don't believe you can retire wealthy following his simple dictums. It ain't that easy.

 

[willair]

Just had a read of the notes for the Nab Annual General Meeting and the first line on page one is, 2008 is likely to be remembered as the most tumultuous in the history of the global financial system,then on page 5 i read how much is in the hands outs in the performance options plan for the people that run this bank,i intend to fly down for this annual meeting
and ask the question,why did they use "securitisation conduits" to raise
funds for itself and it's clients in order to provide funding at competitive
rates,and the top end still get paided big bucks while,the poor shareholders get another kick in the back-end day in day out,some one out there knew full well what was happening in the middle of last year
and those people should be held accountable in money terms and they should also not get one share for the past years work,they may well throw me out of the Annual Meetting,but i intend to have my say..
BTW i still hold NAB-CBA,and always will ,just can't understand why the top end people in the banks still get paid so much for doing so little..
imho willair..

 

[Peter 14.7]

BTW i still hold NAB-CBA,and always will ,just can't understand why the top end people in the banks still get paid so much for doing so little..
imho willair..

Because it is a clear conflict of interest. They are judge, jury and executioner.

Boards have no independance and ABC Learning shows you have to be $1.5BN broke before the Gov sends in Auditors or ASIC does anything.

Not negative.... simply honest, Peter

 

[Sunfish]

Willair, These guys are smarter than us with better info. Of course they knew what was happening. They were just have too good a time at the punchbowl. A big Yank banker explained it by simply saying that while the music plays, they dance.

No-one "cares" about us, we are just sheep to be fleeced.

Got gold yet?

 

[Kenster]

he doesnt seem to share my pessimism on the USD which has me questioning this now

Buffett had $40b in cash before TSHTF, mostly treasury bonds.

As of now, he is out of treasury bonds completely, has spent $20b in shares and intents to spend the rest on US shares.

 

[Kenster]

Did you get sucked in by that? He was desperately talking up the US but he would, wouldn't he. LOL

He has vested interest in talking up the market both financially (for his own good) and morally (the herd is watching his every steps)

He has copped a draw-down of a cool billion on his investment in GE if he bought on the same terms available to us. Wanna bet he he has screwed GE for terms unavailable to us?

Goldman Sachs has to pay WB $500 m (10% return) this year in return for WB $5 bn injection. They are lucky not going bankrupt let alone being able to make 10% return this year

 

[willair]

Willair, These guys are smarter than us with better info. Of course they knew what was happening. They were just have too good a time at the punchbowl. A big Yank banker explained it by simply saying that while the music plays, they dance.

No-one "cares" about us, we are just sheep to be fleeced.

Got gold yet?

No not yet,the boss-wife has about half a kilo,i just keep saying to myself it has to end somewhere,but iv'e been saying that for six minths now and i still think the bottom is a long way off,i don't think about how much i'm down anymore and the mistakes i have made by buying down as everything went downhill,at least it was my money that i had worked many years to build up,and if i have to go back to work then so be it..

The funny item is my daughter's last day at school today,and she went to a formal with her boyfriend last night,when he turned up to pick her up in the limo,on of my dogs broke through the front door and bit him on the backside and ripped his pants and suit and bit him on the legs several times,now i'm up for the hospital bill, a new suit,and what ever other costs to fix the young man up,nothing worries me anymore,plus the dog got a broken leg.LOL..
..WILLAIR..

 

[nonrecourse]

The word depression is slowly being accepted as the appropriate term to describe the history we are now seeing unfold.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...g-monster-will-get-hungrier-and-hungrier.html

 

[nonrecourse]

The story behind the Citibank debacle

This disturbing article demonstrates a further unravelling of the american financial markets.

http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Financial_Tsunami/Citigroup_Abyss/citigroup_abyss.html

 

[Kenster]

This disturbing article demonstrates a further unravelling of the american financial markets.

http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Financial_Tsunami/Citigroup_Abyss/citigroup_abyss.html

Paulson is mentioned everywhere in the article, being blamed for all the mess we are seeing in the market place because of the seemingly uncoordinated, clumsy, incompetent way he performs. Everytime he talks, markets around the world tank.

Yet looking from the end result point of view US government wants to achieve, he is on the way to achieve the impossible feat of raising 2 trillions bond fund at, guess what, 0% interest.

This is to borrow 2 trillions for nothing in return.

I see him like a skillful magician on stage, making a fool of himself to make the crowd laughing and crying the way he wants and the crowd pays him back based on how they feel. The more skillful the magician is, the more money he can get from the crowd.

So far, the show he (and the supporting cast) put up is perfect: Around the world there is no safer place to park money than bonds. Commodities and and oil are priced lower than production cost. Shares and Properties are jumping off the cliff. Precious metals are low and unavailable (+ too small a market for big moneys). Banks are shaky.

Everyone, especially big moneys, ends up channelling money into treasury bonds at 0.01% kind of return. Voluntarily.

Brilliant show. Brilliant magician.

History will tell.