Thoughts on St Albans

[Fifth]

Thanks for your reply Fifth, sorry if by saying "our" I've ruffled your feathers. It's just a force of habit, I'll remember to say "I" or "my" next time. I've also edited the last post for you

It's not the wording, it's that you're pushing the agenda of a company rather than sharing opinions that you've formulated of your own accord.

I understand that you look at property from a cash flow positive perspective. I usually look from a NG perspective. Without entering into a debate about that I respect that you have a different opinion therein and accept your POV.

You don't find a proponent of NGing referring to other strategies as 'speculative' the least bit ironic?

St. Albans currently has around 1,000 house and land packaged properties available on and off market right now. I understand that the area has a history and is land locked by it's neighbours but it is an area that has a lot of 'new' buildings with no history being sold by developers. This type of stock over recent years has more than doubled.

I honestly don't believe St Albans currently has 1000 house and land packages currently available. You're not including surrounding newer suburbs, are you? Happy to be proven incorrect on this point.

The statistics were not cherry picked. They were all from APM with the exceptions of the areas that were declared SNR to which I sought another source.

Fair enough.

St. Albans is volatile because over the last ten years the price has fluctuated higher than established suburbs. There is a lack of any proven historical pattern as the suburb is going through change. Established suburbs show consistent growth however over the last 12-18 months prices have softened. Do you see the difference?

Over the last ten years, St Albans prices have not fluctuated any more than suburbs listed on your 'hotspots' list (eg. Albert Park, Kew East, Collingwood, etc.). Up until the recent price falls, it had not experienced a decline greater than low single digits which many on your list had also experienced (that and more). Its growth has been fairly consistent over the past 10 years. Apparently we have different definitions of volatile.

You're right about established properties having a higher entry point, if someone can't afford to get into blue chip stock then they can try something cheaper but it is at their own risk which is all I was saying. Sometimes it's better for people to generate wealth through methods they can afford such as bonds or bank deposits before they enter the property market, thus avoiding investing in areas that are compromised. Alternatively there are established regional areas with proven patterns that offer cheaper entry points. Still, that is up to the individuals circumstances and appetite for risk and return.

My problem is the assumption that entry-level suburbs are inherently riskier than blue chip suburbs. The two are both notorious for their volatility during times of crisis. Whilst blue chips offer the prospect of more glorious CG, these are the worst suburbs to invest in during times of economic uncertainty as a downturn could see the investor both heavily negatively geared and in negative equity territory. Lose your job and you're screwed. Blue chips are hardly a less risky venture, particularly with our economy teetering so precariously on the edge.

 

[willister]

box hill has more millionaires - who pay mega bucks and also more coming into the suburb to push up prices.

Box Hill's millionaires are the result of the flow on effect of mainly Mainland Chinese investors who were pushed out from Balwyn, Balwyn North, Camberwell and Surrey Hills (though mainly Balwyn/Balwyn North).

I remember back in the mid 90s to even early 2000s, Box Hill was on par with the likes of Footscray and Springvale in terms of druggies, theft and other undesirables of society. What has occurred is gentrification - more so luck that it's position is just on the fringe of inner east Melbourne.

Both St. Albans and Box Hill are about 15-17kms from the CBD, Box Hill has better transportation links, but both have train lines (which in my opinion is the only decent transportation worth taking). St Albans has Victoria University, Box Hill it's own TAFE (neither of which I must add is that flash reputation wise). Neither also has a developed, reputable and notoriously popular high school (e.g. Balwyn High, Glen Waverley High).

The only difference that I can explain of such a CG in BH is due to (luck of) position from more expensive real estate in its surrounds. True though, it has many more established businesses and with one ATO division based there, it's better in terms for white collar prospects. Note that many young couples whose folks might have lived in the Eastern suburbs are now in the West due to being prices out of the East.

Note that before the influx of the Mainland Chinese, Box Hill prices were also stagnant for a long while, wasn't really till 2004 that prices began to skyrocket.

 

[MC1]

As you know, if you're looking to park money in St. Alban's you're not investing, you're speculating.

The reason I say it is a speculative area is because:

1. The clearance rate is 38% which is very low
2. Volume is moderate-high at +$150mil over the last 12 months.
3. Properties being sold there are mainly new house and land packages that have no historical growth patterns.
4. The suburb is highly volatile dropping 9.7% over the last 12 months
5. Capital works may or may not have an effect on property value​

If you're aware that speculating is not investing and are comfortable with the high risk nature of the former then by all means put your money here.

In my opinion, only established investors who have a strong base of at least 3 properties should think about high-risk/high-return assets.

If you haven't set yourself up with a portfolio foundation I'd suggest looking to more established suburbs first to which please refer to my other recent post: http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=81632

Mainly House and land packages? Where?

 

[willister]

Mainly House and land packages? Where?

I suspect those might be in Cairnlea which is kind of a zone within St. Albans so to speak.

 

[ansaurieng]

HI GUYS,

I live in St Albans. As far as junkie goes, i have seen none for the last 2 years. The shopping centre is very busy due to influx of Vietnamese moving into the suburb and other ethnic groups. It is a sought after area by people for PPOR. I bought my PPOR in St Albans for 190k five years ago. did some minor reno and i am expecting the current value of at least 350K. We had very good growth 3 years ago. Personnally i would not buy IP in St Albans in this market as the yield is just over 4% and i can not afford the out-of-pockets. There are alot of warehousing companies in the surrounding surburb. i work in TULLA which is 15min drive. As for the market, it has been flat for over 12 months. I can see is starting to pick up again.

Cheers

 

[Jake Milne]

Fifth I think you've gone off half cocked. You've misunderstood quite a lot of what's been said for some reason.

It's not the wording, it's that you're pushing the agenda of a company rather than sharing opinions that you've formulated of your own accord.

How is saying it's smart to build a foundation of sound property before one starts to invest in riskier options is pushing a company's agenda? And what if those sentiments are my own thoughts too?

You don't find a proponent of NGing referring to other strategies as 'speculative' the least bit ironic?

When did I say +CF strategies were speculative? Quite sure I said I respect different strategies and will not enter a debate about that.

I honestly don't believe St Albans currently has 1000 house and land packages currently available. You're not including surrounding newer suburbs, are you? Happy to be proven incorrect on this point.

I'm not sure what you count as St. Albans but as far as I see it the area boundaries are: Taylors Road (N), the M80 (E), Furlong Road through Neale Road (S) and Kurung Drive (W). Check Lauders and/or Simonds to see what H&L's they have available.

My problem is the assumption that entry-level suburbs are inherently riskier than blue chip suburbs. The two are both notorious for their volatility during times of crisis. Whilst blue chips offer the prospect of more glorious CG, these are the worst suburbs to invest in during times of economic uncertainty as a downturn could see the investor both heavily negatively geared and in negative equity territory. Lose your job and you're screwed. Blue chips are hardly a less risky venture, particularly with our economy teetering so precariously on the edge.

Once again you've misinterpreted what I've said. Entry level suburbs that have low medians are okay as long as they have proven track records.

Taking a punt on an area because it has a hospital being built is purely speculative. The track record of St. Albans has not been proven to deliver consistent capital growth over time where as established areas such as Kew have. Markets usually follow trends. If an area doesn't have an established, strong trend with levels of support for price there is more risk, meaning any suburb without a strong history has more risk, entry level or otherwise.

The risk is in the speculation not the price point.

As per your comments on gearing that is a totally separate issue and one that does not change if you buy in different areas. It's purely about your serviceability. You could by in St. Alban's or Vaucluse and still be in trouble if you lost your job or if rates rose if you've borrowed beyond your means. Best save this argument for a conversation about gearing, income protection and risk management.

 

[Jake Milne]

Both St. Albans and Box Hill are about 15-17kms from the CBD, Box Hill has better transportation links, but both have train lines (which in my opinion is the only decent transportation worth taking). St Albans has Victoria University, Box Hill it's own TAFE (neither of which I must add is that flash reputation wise). Neither also has a developed, reputable and notoriously popular high school (e.g. Balwyn High, Glen Waverley High).

The only difference that I can explain of such a CG in BH is due to (luck of) position from more expensive real estate in its surrounds. True though, it has many more established businesses and with one ATO division based there, it's better in terms for white collar prospects. Note that many young couples whose folks might have lived in the Eastern suburbs are now in the West due to being prices out of the East.

Note that before the influx of the Mainland Chinese, Box Hill prices were also stagnant for a long while, wasn't really till 2004 that prices began to skyrocket.

This is quite a pertinent point.

 

[Melbournian]

My biggest problem with your above post is this 'our opinion' stuff instead of 'my opinion'. You're here representing a company which, to me, is not what this forum is about.

have to agree at some level to this. No offence jake -I remember you were putting a list of what you thought were best buys, 3 storey, no lifts, no swimming pool, quiet streets which you said guaranteed will be making a gain.

I have a lot of asian associates - some in the 100s of millions and many would not even look at an apartment with no lift.

i probably am one of the few who mainly purchases apartment and has financed, bought for himself , rented, renovated and cash flow positive and sold quite a number of apartments in melbourne over the last 10 years. i lived in 7 different apartments which i bought myself as well.

On the other side, i don't disagree - some of daily or weekly reports are quite useful to read.

 

[Melbournian]

I remember back in the mid 90s to even early 2000s, Box Hill was on par with the likes of Footscray and Springvale in terms of druggies, theft and other undesirables of society. What has occurred is gentrification - more so luck that it's position is just on the fringe of inner east Melbourne.

Both St. Albans and Box Hill are about 15-17kms from the CBD, Box Hill has better transportation links, but both have train lines (which in my opinion is the only decent transportation worth taking). St Albans has Victoria University, Box Hill it's own TAFE (neither of which I must add is that flash reputation wise). Neither also has a developed, reputable and notoriously popular high school (e.g. Balwyn High, Glen Waverley High).

The only difference that I can explain of such a CG in BH is due to (luck of) position from more expensive real estate in its surrounds. True though, it has many more established businesses and with one ATO division based there, it's better in terms for white collar prospects. Note that many young couples whose folks might have lived in the Eastern suburbs are now in the West due to being prices out of the East.

Note that before the influx of the Mainland Chinese, Box Hill prices were also stagnant for a long while, wasn't really till 2004 that prices began to skyrocket.

First - in the 1990s when i was a teenager at school i would rather go to box hill to eat as oppose to footscray or springvale. Come on - you serious - that's crazy - footscray is the same as boxhill in the 90s?

i'm not trying to belittle victoria university - and many students where local or foreign who are trying to get a degree in a professional job such as accounting who rather to go to monash or melb uni. Secondly, many overseas companies do not regard vic uni as a university itself and would prove very difficult to find employment in their home country upon return. where else box hill is close to deakin university.

when you say west - yes but i wouldn't say St Albans. more would be purchasing in areas like point cook, hoppers crossing, altona where they parents bought in the east.

Everything in life has some level of luck - even in investing. Most mainland chinese buy in box hill due to proximity to shops and food. Unfortunately money talks - and they have it and they park it where they see fit.

 

[Fifth]

How is saying it's smart to build a foundation of sound property before one starts to invest in riskier options is pushing a company's agenda? And what if those sentiments are my own thoughts too?

You've yet to prove that St Albans is a riskier investment. You've thrown around the word 'volatility' a lot whilst ignoring that your 'hotspots' have a history of equal if not greater volatility.

When did I say +CF strategies were speculative? Quite sure I said I respect different strategies and will not enter a debate about that.

I phrased that poorly. What I meant to say was, a proponent of negative gearing is in no position to call any strategy speculative (and, yes, just to clarify, I am being somewhat facetious).

I'm not sure what you count as St. Albans but as far as I see it the area boundaries are: Taylors Road (N), the M80 (E), Furlong Road through Neale Road (S) and Kurung Drive (W). Check Lauders and/or Simonds to see what H&L's they have available.

I went to both sites and there was not a single property listed on either located in St Albans.

Once again you've misinterpreted what I've said. Entry level suburbs that have low medians are okay as long as they have proven track records.

Taking a punt on an area because it has a hospital being built is purely speculative. The track record of St. Albans has not been proven to deliver consistent capital growth over time where as established areas such as Kew have. Markets usually follow trends. If an area doesn't have an established, strong trend with levels of support for price there is more risk, meaning any suburb without a strong history has more risk, entry level or otherwise.

The risk is in the speculation not the price point.

Actually, St Albans has delivered fairly consistent capital growth over the last 10 years. If we want to go back further than that, several of your 'hotspots' have equally low growth histories. Do you also suggest people only invest in Coburg North if they have at least 4 properties?

As per your comments on gearing that is a totally separate issue and one that does not change if you buy in different areas. It's purely about your serviceability. You could by in St. Alban's or Vaucluse and still be in trouble if you lost your job or if rates rose if you've borrowed beyond your means. Best save this argument for a conversation about gearing, income protection and risk management.

Yes, best save that for another thread.

Anyway, I find it difficult to take a person's analysis of a suburb seriously when they can't even spell the suburb's name. You repeatedly spell it 'St. Alban's'. After so many times, it ceases to be a typo.

 

[Jake Milne]

Anyway, I find it difficult to take a person's analysis of a suburb seriously when they can't even spell the suburb's name. You repeatedly spell it 'St. Alban's'. After so many times, it ceases to be a typo.

This is my last post within this thread as I cease to reply to arguments when you resort to such immaturity. This conversation has become more about your ego than the merits of a suburb.

Please forgive me for mentally thinking that this suburb was named after Saint Alban, the first British Christian martyr. Who the suburb was named after making it Saint Alban's suburb, my knowledge surely deceives me.

Might I add that your argument is pretty rich coming from one who just edited his post due to an "unfortunate spelling error".

Anyway don't bother replying until you learn to shelve your childish antics and talk sense.

 

[Fifth]

This is my last post within this thread as I cease to reply to arguments when you resort to such immaturity. This conversation has become more about your ego than the merits of a suburb.

Please forgive me for mentally thinking that this suburb was named after Saint Alban, the first British Christian martyr. Who the suburb was named after making it Saint Alban's suburb, my knowledge surely deceives me.

Might I add that your argument is pretty rich coming from one who just edited his post due to an "unfortunate spelling error".

Anyway don't bother replying until you learn to shelve your childish antics and talk sense.

I couldn't care less about spelling or grammar. Nor do I care whether you have a PhD in theology. As I suspect you already know, the only reason I pointed out your grammar faux pas was because it indicated to me that you're entirely unfamiliar with the area. You've probably never been to St Albans let alone researched it.

Perhaps I am immature. What I consider more immature is making 'facts' up and refusing to acknowledge it. You've done this several times. You're entitled to your opinions, of course. Just don't make stuff up and expect to be taken seriously as a real estate professional.

For the record, I've never invested in St Albans and have no intention of doing so.

Now your wish is granted and I shall stop posting.

 

[MC1]

His reference to House and land packages in St Albans is way off.

If he was taking inot account large block subdivsions, thats another story.

However, whilst the House and land packages was a major point on your view to St Albans, you would have to say that your view on the suburb is flawed.

 

[Jake Milne]

His reference to House and land packages in St Albans is way off. If he was taking inot account large block subdivsions, thats another story.

I'm sorry but there are plenty of new developments towards cairnlea, albanvale, kings park, and around Taylor's road. I accept that this is not the case for the Uni district or near the train Station and that's perhaps where the misunderstanding has spurred from.

 

[Fifth]

I'm sorry but there are plenty of new developments towards cairnlea, albanvale, kings park, and around Taylor's road. I accept that this is not the case for the Uni district or near the train Station and that's perhaps where the misunderstanding has spurred from.

I said I wouldn't post again, but this is too much.

There is no misunderstanding. You are making stuff up. St Albans is an established suburb and has little room for house and land package developments. Just look at a satellite map for two seconds.

Perhaps by 'towards' you mean 'in' its surrounding suburbs?

The St Albans side of Taylors Rd is established. There's no room for new estates.

Please provide a link to a single house and land package development in St Albans. It should be easy considering there are so many.

 

[Jake Milne]

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-townhouse-vic-st+albans-111477111

 

[Fifth]

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-townhouse-vic-st+albans-111477111

Since when are townhouse developments house and land package estates? You do realise every single suburb has townhouse developments? You might as well say Toorak has house and land package estates.

 

[Jake Milne]

I must have been mislead by the advertisement ...sorry.

How about this one, better?
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-st+albans-111369319

Just to point out there are about 7 huge blocks of H&L land here - you can "check the satellite"

 

[Fifth]

I must have been mislead by the advertisement ...sorry.

How about this one, better?
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-st+albans-111369319

Just to point out there are about 7 huge blocks of H&L land here - you can "check the satellite"

Yes, that's much better.

So we've established that there are 7 huge blocks of H&L in St Albans. Now we just need to turn that into 'properties being sold there are mostly house and land packages' and 'there are 1000 house and land packages currently being offered in St Albans'. Those 7 blocks must be pretty huge.

 

[Jake Milne]

It appears that I've managed create a contested debate with some strong views and I've managed to make some people very unhappy. I am sincerely sorry. I have a strong commitment to provide quality information so that others may benefit when investing or buying a home. To that effect I thank Fifth, MC1 and Melbournian for contesting the information and I do believe your points are valid.