Revisit this post in 7-10 years when values have doubled, make a new one of these and repeat. It's business as usual, you guys should know better.
Time to sell Melbourne housing?
- Thread starter MichaelW
- Start date
I agree. The med- long term fundamentals very much point to price doubling in 7-10 years. Certainly, this has shown to be the trend historically.
I also agree its all cyclical- there will be a new one of these when future corrections happen. Im sure there are similar ones for other investment types-oil, commodities, shares, etc.
People are entitled to their opinions and the ability to express them, and this site is one such medium.
I think we are lucky somersoft does not charge per post. If they did, they would be able to afford this:
http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/moneya...ondon-flat-breaks-record-by-selling-for-208m/
Im saving up to buy it off the ukrainian gazillionairre who bought this with cash via offshore accounts ( no prizes for guessing what colour his money was
.Keep chanting the 7 - 10 year thing... everyone knows it is rubbish.
To quote the REIV, which normally go out of their way to say how great the market is:
"Melbourne's property market has posted one of its weakest opening quarters in a decade, a performance bound to fuel concerns that the recent softening in market conditions may be becoming a downturn.
The city's median house price fell 6 per cent to $565,000 in the March quarter, according to the Real Estate Institute of Victoria. The median unit price dropped 4.2 per cent to $460,000 over that time."
If you look at property prices in Melbourne from 89 - 99 they didnt double, they stagnated. Same with Sydney 2002 - 2008. If you think they are going to double again in the next 10 years after the run they have had over the last 10 years you really are dreaming.
you're right giddyup - i too think they won't double
However - it is always about buying the right property and having it ready for the right market. Among the hundreds or 1000s of inner city properties - there are always ones which can be considered the right one.
All these medians, trends, etc don't really apply so much if you niche to a certain market or you have your property in a way that represents itself uniquely. if i could sell a 1st level unit below 2 carparks, 50m from the tram lines and right outside garbage collection bins 3 X week - this is quite recent - out of 1000s of units available for sale in the inner city melbourne i am pretty sure i can still do this in time to come.
However - it is always about buying the right property and having it ready for the right market. Among the hundreds or 1000s of inner city properties - there are always ones which can be considered the right one.
All these medians, trends, etc don't really apply so much if you niche to a certain market or you have your property in a way that represents itself uniquely. if i could sell a 1st level unit below 2 carparks, 50m from the tram lines and right outside garbage collection bins 3 X week - this is quite recent - out of 1000s of units available for sale in the inner city melbourne i am pretty sure i can still do this in time to come.
You know, we're all technically lying.
To lie: To tell of something that has not yet happened.
I should re-phrase my initial comment.
Please revisit this thread in 7-10 years as I believe property would have doubled. I also believe that I will be much wealthier than you two, and also have the option of retiring before the age of 40.
Thanks, carry on. This reminds me of why I and many other great SS'ers stopped talking to you people in the first place.
Bye and good luck.
To lie: To tell of something that has not yet happened.
I should re-phrase my initial comment.
Please revisit this thread in 7-10 years as I believe property would have doubled. I also believe that I will be much wealthier than you two, and also have the option of retiring before the age of 40.
Thanks, carry on. This reminds me of why I and many other great SS'ers stopped talking to you people in the first place.
Bye and good luck.
Because we refuse to accept your arrogance and ignorance?
–verb (used without object)
to speak falsely or utter untruth knowingly, as with intent to deceive.
to express what is false; convey a false impression.
So, technically, only some of us are lying.
Maybe with your millions and early retirement you could buy a dictionary and read it.
I agree with the article to the extent that the Melbourne Metro market will be flat for the next 12/18 months and yields will remain low as a significant amount of supply, particularly apartments will hit the market during this time. Building approvals are up.
However the major regional centres like Ballarat Bendigo and Geelong is where the growth will be during this time. Vacancy rates are low and rental yields are above 6%, neutral cashflow is achievable in these areas. Theres also increased government funding in the tune of Billions being spent.
However the major regional centres like Ballarat Bendigo and Geelong is where the growth will be during this time. Vacancy rates are low and rental yields are above 6%, neutral cashflow is achievable in these areas. Theres also increased government funding in the tune of Billions being spent.
i do hope prices fall ard mid year would be an opportunity to make acquisitions.
This may sound "sensible" but I have been a sharemarket investor for some time now and no longer believe in "mother bear" outcomes. When things are hot they go up, when they're not they drop. There is no "just right".
Capital gain is the lifeblood of property investors and outside MLB, cap gain has been hard to find for years. Seems they are drying up there too. SS members are a small percentage of PIs so everyone else has to rely on the MSM for their daily hit of "good news" and they are starting to receive a daily dose of "bad news" too.
There will be no orderly exit if/when the bear market becomes obvious. Forget "women and children first", it will be every man/woman for themselves.
My perspective is that I need to track properties and buy when prices crash.
As far as my existing properties are concerned , they are leased to good tenants, I am so close to neutrally geared it doesn't matter and don't care if values take a pounding in the short term.
As far as my existing properties are concerned , they are leased to good tenants, I am so close to neutrally geared it doesn't matter and don't care if values take a pounding in the short term.
Have you tested your nerve in a CRASH? No property investor here has been tested so it is easy to say how brave you'd be. Best find a mate who lost big time on shares during the GFC and ask him just how gung-ho he felt during the dark days. With 20X20 hind sight we all know what we SHOULD have done but few hardened professionals did the right thing at the right time. Mostly they just ran like all the other sheep.
Are you made of sterner stuff?
This.
I just got preapproval for 640k so I’ll be looking to buy this year. Also interesting that my broker thinks that interest rates are on their way down this year.
lol. if the banks do cut rates, it will be a nominal amount - like 0.1%. Will hardly make any material difference to most mortgages. Maybe a maccas and large diet coke a week. Want fries with that?
Very interesting article and I too like most people agree that the Melbourne market is precarious. But, won't be selling. Someone mentioned Melbourne in like bullion, hold - buy when it dips - never sell. Couldn't agree more.
I thought it would be interesting to see what people's yields are in Melbourne?
I've started a new thread and posted my yields at http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=783380#post783380.
Please feel free to add your own. I think it'll be interesting to see how people have fared.
Lol yep 0.1% no more no less
2009 . Started with 10,. Purchased 1 bed apartment in newport for 190k, with grant.
Mid 2010 sold after reno for 70 percent profit 320k.
April 2011 bought 2 bedroom apartment in st kilda east for 460k with reno potential. Will yield 4 percent as is.
Im geared at 70 percent . And it will cost me about 130 a week to hold.
Im am comfortable that i have bought well, and can add value through reno.
Im happy with that progress in 2 years. seeing the prices in places such as armadale, st kilda east appears the obvious choice with a 70k price difference for similar properties.
Even been to an open for inspection in these areas for rentals? Demand still high and will always be. I think its a safe bet prices will be higher years to come as the demographic is for high income earners.
No right answers. If you need luck, maybe rethink your strategic
Mid 2010 sold after reno for 70 percent profit 320k.
April 2011 bought 2 bedroom apartment in st kilda east for 460k with reno potential. Will yield 4 percent as is.
Im geared at 70 percent . And it will cost me about 130 a week to hold.
Im am comfortable that i have bought well, and can add value through reno.
Im happy with that progress in 2 years. seeing the prices in places such as armadale, st kilda east appears the obvious choice with a 70k price difference for similar properties.
Even been to an open for inspection in these areas for rentals? Demand still high and will always be. I think its a safe bet prices will be higher years to come as the demographic is for high income earners.
No right answers. If you need luck, maybe rethink your strategic
Not just this. I did very well coming out of the GFC. But i would have done even better if i hadnt been so gung ho at the start of the decline.
There are lessons to be learnt hear for everyone.
How is it you figure 70% profit? Did you not spend any money on the reno? or have any holding costs at all?
If you buy a place for a 100k spend 50k on it and sell it for 150k do you really make 50% profit?
or just dodge the numbers so they look better than what they really are
That is true. that's why it's better to say i generated net capital gain profit 120K from a 500K initial purchase in 1.8 years time. forget the percentages - it confuses people.
