Timing for the next Fed. election

[Dazz]

With the strictest of intentions of avoiding all of the "he said, she said" nonsense, I was hoping to get a feel for the consensus or collective opinion of when the next Federal election might be.

What are you guys hearing over there in the eastern seaboard ??

With the Speaker having just been replaced by a Labor MP - reducing the Govt's votes by 1, we now have 7 MPs sitting on the crossbenches in the lower house, with apparently 5 of those 7 needed to pass any legislation whatsoever.

The unstable situation just got even more unstable.

A simple month and year would suffice....no point getting into a big argy-bargy, it'll just get shut down.

I'm reliably told the very latest date constitutionally for a Federal poll is 30th of November 2013.

My guess is the current Govt will drag it out as long as possible, but would like other people's opinions on a possible date.

 

[Rolf Latham]

With the strictest of intentions of avoiding all of the "he said, she said" nonsense, I was hoping to get a feel for the consensus or collective opinion of when the next Federal election might be.

What are you guys hearing over there in the eastern seaboard ??

With the Speaker having just been replaced by a Labor MP - reducing the Govt's votes by 1, we now have 7 MPs sitting on the crossbenches in the lower house, with apparently 5 of those 7 needed to pass any legislation whatsoever.

The unstable situation just got even more unstable.

A simple month and year would suffice....no point getting into a big argy-bargy, it'll just get shut down.

I'm reliably told the very latest date constitutionally for a Federal poll is 30th of November 2013.

My guess is the current Govt will drag it out as long as possible, but would like other people's opinions on a possible date.

Dec 1 2013


ta
rolf

 

[Nemo30]

We've been debating this at work. Girls I work with think October 2013. I'm increasingly thinking they will go early - perhaps before the next Budget so Swan doesnt have to admit he didnt deliver a surplus.

 

[Dan_p]

Next year, immediately after they sense a weakness or start a major scandal against Tony Abbott so they get as much leverage as possible.

I am sure Julia has a few tricks up her sleeve. For someone so thick she is very cunning.

 

[pully]

it cannot come soon enough for me. we are ready to vote now.

the current situation is unsatisfactory and shows no signs of improvement.

 

[Dan_p]

it cannot come soon enough for me. we are ready to vote now.

the current situation is unsatisfactory and shows no signs of improvement.

Your not wrong. I cannot even watch Gillard or Swan on tv anymore, its got to the point where I have to leave the room.

 

[HotRod]

My guess the latest possible date, 30 November 2013.

They will want to hold power for as long as they can.

Unless, uncompromising photos showing Tony Abbott misogynising a poor defensive unemployed, whale loving pensioner fall into the hands of the Labor machine. An early snap election could be called and Labor will try to ride the public's wave of disgust to victory.

 

[willair]

Over the course of the next several months of discussion,there will be raw emotions of jealousy from both sides..

...1 st Oct...2013...

 

[HotRod]

Just sad to see that politics in this country has regressed to petty name calling and trying to put on all this gender crap.

Oh I long for the days of Keating v Howard. That was some fun stuff, with both sides giving as good as they got and no backing down.

 

[twobobsworth]

Heads or tails? I think we'll have to wait until after Christmas. Members going back to their electorates and copping flack when picking up the milk. Indicator will be when they start announcing their retirements.

 

[Tillie]

I am hoping that both parties will change their leaders ASAP. Both of the current ones are the joke. Give me Malcolm and Kevin any day.

 

[Dazz]

We've been debating this at work. Girls I work with think October 2013.

Sounds like a very logical date to me as well.

It'll be after the major AFL, union and league grand final dates, and within the window constitutionally when they are forced to go.

I'm increasingly thinking they will go early - perhaps before the next Budget so Swan doesnt have to admit he didnt deliver a surplus.

Yes, I'm sure that will be a factor as well. The Budget itself, whilst normally being delivered in May for the forward period.....the actuals for the previous year aren't officially announced until late Sept.

We won't actually know for sure about Labor's promised surplus they forecast in May 2012 until late Sept 2013.

It would therefore make sense not to go in Oct 2013....as they are likely to fail their objective of a surplus and then be continually beaten about the head yet again for failing to deliver.

Given that, perhaps late August might be the go.....like we had in 2010.

In any case, the machinations of it all are fascinating.


With WA going to a state election on the 9th of March 2013, and SA muted as going on the 15th of March 2014.....I'm not sure how any of that - if at all - plays into the mix. Probably SA not at all.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

The word around govt is to expect the election late September 2012.

 

[Sunfish]

Labor is not going to lose a confidence vote so it will be at a time of Julia's choosing. [Nobody is going to roll her either]

You would need to study a calendar to pick a Sat that does not conflict with pub hols, major sporting events etc in Oct to mid Nov if you were going to have a punt.

 

[Aaron_C]

I am hoping that both parties will change their leaders ASAP. Both of the current ones are the joke. Give me Malcolm and Kevin any day.

...and both of those people were dumped as leaders of their respective parties because they were not popular with voters...

 

[Aaron_C]

My guess is the current Govt will drag it out as long as possible, but would like other people's opinions on a possible date.

Given that everything Julia Gillard has done so far is to cling to power, it wouldn't make any sense for her to call an 'early' election - otherwise why try to defend Peter Slipper, play tricks with Andrew Wilkie etc. It will be in November, notwithstanding the horror budget result in September.

 

[tab]

Hopefully I can be overseas when it gets called. What a pain in the *** it is to listen to weeks of ********ting and name calling from a bunch of hypocrites and political posers. It's all asterix politics.

Considering ill be o/s in June, I'm going for an early July date.

 

[willair]

Labor is not going to lose a confidence vote so it will be at a time of Julia's choosing. [Nobody is going to roll her either]

You would need to study a calendar to pick a Sat that does not conflict with pub hols, major sporting events etc in Oct to mid Nov if you were going to have a punt.

Well that blows 1.10.2013 out the back door real quick,and i agree nobody going is to roll her only the Australian Public..

 

[buzzlightyear]

It still rests with Windsor & Oakeshot for an early election. Wilkie has become the wildcard, bandt is with Labor, Crook & Slipper i am assuming are with LNP. On that basis alone, the orthodoxy has it's a date at the PMs call. However there is still a sense of the unexpected in the air, just don't know exactly at this point how this will play out.

There is no conceivable way the ALP will go early imo. There is still more than daylight between them and the LNP in the polls even after the concerted Abbott attacks. These tactics remind me of starting a fight when you are in an unwinnable position in a game of footy. Not much else to lose....

 

[Tony3008]

...and both of those people were dumped as leaders of their respective parties because they were not popular with voters...

Just a pity that democracy favours the popular over the able and competent. As has been pointed out elsewhere, many of the great leaders of the past (on all sides) would have got nowhere had TV been around in their day.