Timing for the next Fed. election

[HotRod]

We won't actually know for sure about Labor's promised surplus they forecast in May 2012 until late Sept 2013.

It would therefore make sense not to go in Oct 2013....as they are likely to fail their objective of a surplus and then be continually beaten about the head yet again for failing to deliver.

Hadn't considered that.

Swann has stated that there will be a surplus this FY.

Having said that, won't next year's budget in May 2013 have some direction as to the final figures for FY 12/13???? Would there be any chance of an election before May, knowing the cat will be out of the bag at that point, some 6 weeks before the end of the FY????

 

[chilliblue]

Whispers amongst the Liberal opposition in Parliament is that they are gearing for an early 2013 start.

 

[HotRod]

Whispers amongst the Liberal opposition in Parliament is that they are gearing for an early 2013 start.

Thinking about it more, it probably will happen that way.

As with previous budgets, there's always leaks starting about two weeks prior to the budget, starting early May.

You won't have a state and federal election overlapping with the same campaign times, that's just crazy.

I'm probably thinking it'll be after the WA election (maybe in the hope of winning it for the Labor govt) and piggy backing off that immediately. It's about a four week campaign period, so an election about late April, after getting all those long weekends etc out of the way, but before the budget leaks start coming out.

But heck, I might change my reasoning again.

 

[Dazz]

It's a bit like that Hotrod....so many normal things to consider and tip toe around.

Easter is out.

Anzac Day or anywhere near it is out.

Long weekend's are usually out.

Footy grand final fortnight is out.

Anywhere near the Budget is out.

Anywhere near Xmas and January is out.

Back to school week is out.


I reckon that leaves March, August and October.


...but then, choosing your next Federal Govt should rank as a priority with most thinking Australians. Having to tiptoe around footy events probably says quite a lot about our culture and priorities.

 

[BayView]

With the strictest of intentions of avoiding all of the "he said, she said" nonsense, I was hoping to get a feel for the consensus or collective opinion of when the next Federal election might be.

What are you guys hearing over there in the eastern seaboard ??

With the Speaker having just been replaced by a Labor MP - reducing the Govt's votes by 1, we now have 7 MPs sitting on the crossbenches in the lower house, with apparently 5 of those 7 needed to pass any legislation whatsoever.

The unstable situation just got even more unstable.

A simple month and year would suffice....no point getting into a big argy-bargy, it'll just get shut down.

I'm reliably told the very latest date constitutionally for a Federal poll is 30th of November 2013.

My guess is the current Govt will drag it out as long as possible, but would like other people's opinions on a possible date.

Damn! Another saturday where 30 mins of my time will be wasted.

 

[pinkboy]

I reckon that leaves March, August and October.

But Im busy those months........

pinkboy

 

[Sunfish]

Another thing we haven't canvassed and is relevant: How soon can the election be where they can have a half senate vote coincident? ATM if there was a spill the senate vote could not be held coincidently and it would need to be sometime later.

I think both parties would like to avoid this. Frankly I get the impression the opposition is happy to rock the boat but not tip it. They are displaying some patience, playing a "Bradbury" game. Labor is their own worst enemy ATM so Abbott does not need to put his head over the parapets. He can be Mr Cool.

 

[Ed Barton]

Another thing we haven't canvassed and is relevant: How soon can the election be where they can have a half senate vote coincident? ATM if there was a spill the senate vote could not be held coincidently and it would need to be sometime later.

I think both parties would like to avoid this. Frankly I get the impression the opposition is happy to rock the boat but not tip it. They are displaying some patience, playing a "Bradbury" game. Labor is their own worst enemy ATM so Abbott does not need to put his head over the parapets. He can be Mr Cool.

sorry Sun, I don't understand the question.

Is it about a double dissolution? What specifically?

edit - Are you asking how soon till we could face a double dissolution?

A bill(s) must fail the senate twice, with three months in between votes to trigger a DD. The PM can then, but doesn't have to, ask the Governor General to dissolve both houses of parliament leading to a full senate election. A DD can not happen within 6 months before the expiry of lower house.

double edit - or are you asking if the Libs get in at the next election, but don't control the senate - How long till they could call a DD and get a vote on the trigger bill(s)?

 

[Sunfish]

Ed, with a DD, all seats are declared vacant and voted on. That's no prob.

In the normal electoral cycle a half senate vote is taken at the same time as that of the house of reps. Any newly elected senators don't take their seats until a set date though. The constitution sets a maximum time BEFORE that date when that election can be held, so if a general election were called today, it would be too early to hold the half-senate which would then be held as a separate election some time next year.

That wouldn't suit anyone, especially the parties who would need to fund two separate campaigns. They will avoid that if possible.

I don't know what date is the earliest we can have a half-senate. Anyone know this?

 

[Dazz]

How soon can the election be where they can have a half senate vote coincident?

August the 3rd is the date you are looking for Sunfish.

Section 13 of the Constitution means that any election held before 3 August 2013 would be for the House of Representatives and the four Territory Senators. There cannot be a half-Senate election for state Senators before August 2013, and even then, the new Senators elected would not take their seats until 1 July 2014.​

 

[HotRod]

August the 3rd is the date you are looking for Sunfish.

Section 13 of the Constitution means that any election held before 3 August 2013 would be for the House of Representatives and the four Territory Senators. There cannot be a half-Senate election for state Senators before August 2013, and even then, the new Senators elected would not take their seats until 1 July 2014.​

Looks like we're back to August/October (as I don't think they'll d a separate election for the Senate, can't recall that in my life time) and I like November as this govt will wantto hang onto power for as long as legally allowed.

 

[Ed Barton]

In the normal electoral cycle a half senate vote is taken at the same time as that of the house of reps. Any newly elected senators don't take their seats until a set date though. ?

Thanks for the clarification. July 1 after the election, so upto a year.

The constitution sets a maximum time BEFORE that date when that election can be held, so if a general election were called today, it would be too early to hold the half-senate which would then be held as a separate election some time next year.

Australians don't like voting and will punish those that they perceive to be responsible for them taking 30 mins on a saturday to vote. A DD is better than a separate senate vote in that regard.

We're a county of don't give a F'ers!

 

[Ed Barton]

I like this thread, it's good as it's more about process, than if it's green, blue or red.

What do people think of our two house system? The upper house usually has control, it lags popular opinion.

IMO it's good. Anything important will get through and anything marginal will have to wait for the next election.

IMO a govt should not just be able to ram through changes.

 

[dan c]

What do people think of our two house system? The upper house usually has control, it lags popular opinion.

IMO it's good. Anything important will get through and anything marginal will have to wait for the next election.

It depends on how it is used, in my opinion. If it is used to provide checks and balances to bills put through the lower house, then it serves a purpose.

But too often it is used to posture, delay and bargain for other things, like pokie laws (Xenophon) or restricting dirty words on TV (Harradine).

 

[dan c]

A DD is better than a separate senate vote in that regard.

I love a good DD. Two of them, in fact.

Wait, what are we talking about again...?

 

[Dazz]

I like this thread, it's good as it's more about process, than if it's green, blue or red.

That was the intent. Keep off the push-button topics and speak more about the process, where solid facts live, rather than wishy-washy opinions.

What do people think of our two house system?

The more I study it, the more I agree with Keating's comment about Senators - "unrepresentative swill".

I didn't like how someone like Mark Habib is able to step down and then within a week or two, without so much as a bo-peep from the people of NSW, they suddenly pull an old war horse from retirement and voila, NSW suddenly have a new Senator in Bob Carr and then a week later he's trotting around the globe as our Foreign Minister.....that doesn't sit well with me.

The Senate also favours the minor parties with the way Senators are elected....I don't like that either....hence we get a litany of Greens Senators and bugger all (soon to be none) in the lower house.


For me, the lower house is where it is at. You have to garner the support of the, on average, 94,000 voting adults in a particular electorate to actually get in. No sliding in on the # 3 ticket somewhere. Those ladies and gentlemen are true representatives....and they are all up for grabs every 3 years or shorter....none of these cushy 6 year fixed terms.


Of course, all of the action happens in the lower house and it's where the Govt is formed. You see Senators trying to get down into the House of Reps all the time. I can't recall too many going the other way.


Have never been through the new Parliament.....but walked thru the old Parliament house as a kid. It looks pretty swisho on the internet, but it's hard to get a sense of the scale of things from the interent, and of course the atmosphere isn't there.


The system of Govt obviously works pretty well. Most of the better countries have our system, and those that don't generally wish they did.

 

[Mr. Fabulous]

Australians don't like voting and will punish those that they perceive to be responsible for them taking 30 mins on a saturday to vote.

The last time I went to vote, I was hungover as hell. What a hassle. Luckily the voting booth is only about a five minute walk from my house. I just went and got my name ticked off and walked out.

 

[Ideo]

It's a bit like that Hotrod....so many normal things to consider and tip toe around.

Easter is out.

Anzac Day or anywhere near it is out.

Long weekend's are usually out.

Footy grand final fortnight is out.

Anywhere near the Budget is out.

Anywhere near Xmas and January is out.

Back to school week is out.


I reckon that leaves March, August and October.


...but then, choosing your next Federal Govt should rank as a priority with most thinking Australians. Having to tiptoe around footy events probably says quite a lot about our culture and priorities.

Bang on the money with that one.

Also agree re the Senate.

 

[Sunfish]

August the 3rd is the date you are looking for Sunfish.

Section 13 of the Constitution means that any election held before 3 August 2013 would be for the House of Representatives and the four Territory Senators. There cannot be a half-Senate election for state Senators before August 2013, and even then, the new Senators elected would not take their seats until 1 July 2014.​

Thanks Daz. That's what I was after.

As for the senate, yes, Keating was right but we have had some extreme governments and the senate should be able to limit the damage they can do. It's a worry that it is failing in this regard.

It needs to be brought up to date and the rigid party discipline broken. Have no idea how that would be done. Reducing their term to three years would be a start.

 

[Ed Barton]

Have never been through the new Parliament.....but walked thru the old Parliament house as a kid. It looks pretty swisho on the internet, but it's hard to get a sense of the scale of things from the interent, and of course the atmosphere isn't there.

It's very swisho and massive. If you do find yourself in Canberra visit the old parliament house again. It's set up as the Museum of Australian Democracy and you get to see the whole thing. I found it quite interesting.