Townhouse in Maidstone, Vic

Hi, we're new into property investment. We started several months ago but we always got outbid as we entered the market the same time Sydney started to heat up.

After reading a few news articles and talking to a few people (3 of our relatives are property investors well ahead of us and a few other, while not investors, are in the property industry too), we feel that the Sydney market is overheated and now is probably not a good time to buy since we're nearing (if not at) the peak cycle. Everyone's getting greedy and Warren Buffet said that's not a good sign.

So we turned our heads to an off-the-plan townhouse in Maidstone, Melbourne, near Highpoint shopping centre, river and uni (the good side of Maidstone as one called it). It's a 3 floors townhouse with 81sqm land to be finished in early 2015. The price after rebate is $505k.

We did the maths and think we should be financially ok ? some money left on our savings after 20% deposit and can still save monthly after the holding costs.

The best case scenario for us is for it to have good capital growth, and, coupled with our savings, we can get our 2nd property 3-5 years later.

The worst case scenario is a price decrease or flatline for the next several years, so we'll have to rely on saving slowly and possibly can only afford our 2nd property 7-10 years later.

Being the first timers that we are, we're very anxious about it. Can we please ask for some advise on this?
 
How much are existing townhouses in the area selling for? You usually pay a big premium for "new" and OTP units. The fact that they're offering a "rebate" is also a big red flag.

Maidstone is ok but I think you could do better with that amount of money (say 500-600k) elsewhere. Maybe look at townhouses/units in places like Ascot Vale, Brunswick or Williamstown if you would like to buy in Melbourne.
 
Careful dnk. This might be one of those 'split contract' developments that is causing financing angst for people. Tread carefully.
 
Wow, 3 from 3, Interstate, OTP and a rebate.

DANGER Will Robinson.

go for something established, in a market you are comfortable with and know well. Perhaps look at a slightly lower purchase price as well, especially if its your first.
 
Thanks guys. On one hand, we feel we must be brave to take risk, especially a calculated one. One of our friends who started from nil and is now doing well in property investment said it looks promising.

On the other hand, we do feel nervous as it's our savings, not our parents' where they can always say "don't worry about it" (we know friends who aren't burdened buying stocks / property as their parents always come to the rescue).
 
@cimbom: Thanks, will look at those areas.

@Aaron_C : Do you mind explaining more how the split contract can cause financial angst?

@tobe: My wife lived in Melbourne for a couple of years but yes we don't know Melbourne as well as Sydney, though can't say we know all of Sydney either as we just came here 10 years ago as students.
 
@Aaron_C : Do you mind explaining more how the split contract can cause financial angst?

The split contract is where the developer tried to sell an OTP house/townhouse as a construction loan and he then builds the entire development at once. Banks hate it because it gives them too much risk as everyone is using the same builder. Stay away.
 
The split contract is where the developer tried to sell an OTP house/townhouse as a construction loan and he then builds the entire development at once. Banks hate it because it gives them too much risk as everyone is using the same builder. Stay away.

Hi Aaron, sorry I still don't quite understand it. If we have the deposit and the broker said we could borrow that amount and the bank gives the loan to us, then we thought it would be fine? Would you mind sharing what we're seemingly not aware of?
 
Hi Aaron, sorry I still don't quite understand it. If we have the deposit and the broker said we could borrow that amount and the bank gives the loan to us, then we thought it would be fine? Would you mind sharing what we're seemingly not aware of?

Just bloody call him.
 
Not a fan of OTP. For that kind of money in Maidstone I'll rather look at something like this.

http://m.realestate.com.au/property-townhouse-vic-maidstone-115480215

Or go to adjoining maribyrnong for something like this with a very short walk to highpoint and two tram lines.

http://m.realestate.com.au/property-townhouse-vic-maribyrnong-115391283

Although to be honest if you are considering interstate and are not that familiar with melb. Why not look north to Brisbane? Seem to be better buying opportunities there. That's what we did earlier this year and may look at another one up there next year depending on how the various markets are doing.
 
Hi Aaron, sorry I still don't quite understand it. If we have the deposit and the broker said we could borrow that amount and the bank gives the loan to us, then we thought it would be fine? Would you mind sharing what we're seemingly not aware of?

If it was the normal construction loan then your broker would be correct. If it is a split contract then forget about it. You would need a valuation to be sure of this though but it should be obvious in your building contract.
 
How much are existing townhouses in the area selling for?

dnk, I think cimbom nailed it on the head there. All comes down to how much you are paying for the property, if you are buying under market value and the numbers work out then I don't see why not. I am a fan of newer properties, it has its advantages. There are lots of developments these days that do split contracts like a house and land package, meaning you have 2 contracts, 1 for land ad 1 for build. You pay a deposit for land, then full settlement on land when subdivision registered. Then start paying on the build and developer gets paid by you (progress payments) as soon as a build stage is complete rather than waiting till the completion of development to get 90% of the money. In some ways its better because it reduces the risk of the developer running out of money half way through the build but banks don't like it as they feel that its higher risk to them. If a buyer of the development defaults and fails to make payment the banks can have trouble selling the portion of the development, depending on what's in the contract and the sort of subdivision etc.

One advantage of split contracts in my view is that it saves the developer a lot of money not having to borrow a large portion from the banks and that savings can be passed on to purchasers if you know the market.

So imo there is some risk as in any purchase but if you do your due diligence on the developer and builder, I can't see why not. Only hurdle is the loan from the bank. :)
 
Not a fan of Maidstone for growth in units right now. TH's are better than your usual unit though. There are several suburbs nearby such as the areas cimbom mentioned that are better.

Tobe's advice on going for something established (even if it's a few years old) is worth considering, but if you're focusing on low holding costs through depreciation your scope will be limited somewhat.

Please be aware that each state has different offerings at the moment with stamp duty savings and grants.
 
Thanks all, we've decided to let it go. It could be a nice place to live in if we one day move to Melbourne, but that's our emotion ? not head ? thinking, and from what we read, it's rather dangerous to get emotional about our investment. Read that so many times but when it really happens it's still hard not to mix the two :)

Will look somewhere else or wait until the Sydney market calms down. Quite a few articles mentioned it in the past month, the latest being http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estat...me-of-its-heat-agents-say-20131122-2y1d0.html
 
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