Townhouse Prices in the Hills District (NSW) & Impact of Proposed Rail Link

[earthday]

I am a first home buyer, and would like to purchase in the Hills district. I've been told by a friend the on-again-off-again North West rail link (at this stage schedule for completion in 2016), may result in an increase in property prices for certain suburbs such as Carlingford and Castle Hill, but not others such as Baulkham Hills. I have some interest in purchasing in Baulkham Hills, but am concerned if this is one of the suburbs where prices will not increase with the introduction of the rail link.

Any comments/advice on the above, and buying in the Hills generally would be appreciated. FYI I am looking to purchase a 3 bedroom townhouse.

Thanks.

 

[Red Car]

At this stage work is scheduled to BEGIN in 2017 for a completion date in 2024... (if they even build it) so if NSW Labor gets in I wouldnt stress about it

http://www.railcorp.info/__data/ass...Premier_release-Transport_Plan_North_West.pdf

However the NSW Liberals have stated if they get in they will begin building the link in their first term so I would guess that means it will begin around 2015 when the South West Rail Link is completed. However that may only be stage 1 of the link (always meant to be built in 2 stages) which ends at the Hills centre.

 

[Red Car]

Also Carlingford is meant to benefit from the completion of the Epping to Chatswood Rail link which is not on the table right now. I cant see the North West Rail Line helping that area but I may have missed something I guess. Castle Hill should do well out the North West Rail link as will areas around the Hills centre which will most likely be converted to high density housing.

 

[pennyk]

yes, those of us who live in the Hills District gave up hope long ago!
The link is meant to go from Hills centre to Norwest Blvd.
I think there will definitely be a flow on effect to Baulkham Hills. The suburb is quite big, and there are plenty of parts of it which are close enough to the proposed rail link to benefit from it.
In terms of buying in BH... just keep an eye out for well priced homes. There are some townhouses which are more expensive than a older style home, and you will normally get better capital growth from a home.
Also, there are some areas, like Crestwood and North Baulkham Hills which are more "desirable" than other parts.. so if you can get into those areas, you should do well. The prices have risen quite a lot in the past 6 mths though.
Good luck!
Pen

 

[earthday]

Thanks, I really appreciate the feedback...

 

[twobobsworth]

Hopefully the rail link will never be built.

I wouldn't count on anything until the first shovel hits the ground.

 

[pennyk]

Hopefully the rail link will never be built.

I wouldn't count on anything until the first shovel hits the ground.

Why don't you want the rail link built?
I get so frustrated when we keep getting more houses built without any infrastructure......

Pen

 

[twobobsworth]

I get so frustrated when we keep getting more houses built without any infrastructure......

Agreed. The development shouldn't have been allowed to go ahead in the first place. It should have been contained along the Richmond line through quakers hill, schofields, riverstone and vinyard.

At least Riverstone is about to go ahead and the duplication of the railway line, but I don't see further development in the hills slowing down.

A train line will bring an increase in high density housing, increase in crime and massive traffic congestion.

It's pointless spending billions of dollars on a new line when the existing network is incomplete, poorly maintained and not properly integrated with other modes of transport.

If anything we should be encouraging more businesses to set up shop around Parramatta and Blacktown. Even offer relocation incentives. You could then run some light rail or trams down the express bus lanes and those heading east could switch to heavy rail.

 

[Red Car]

Cityrail is hardly poorly maintained and incomplete. They are forever doing track work! It also covers the important parts of Sydney with probably the glaring exception being the Northern Beaches. It does need more CBD capacity though. Cityrails big issue is vandalism but that is a plague on the whole of Sydney at the moment.

Here is my take on it. The NW is an area of Sydney I would not invest in mainly because the transport is terrible and its just low density congested outer suburban sprawl. A rail line and some densification might make me consider it but right now? No.

Also look at the numbers of homes to be built in the area in the future and you will see it either gets a rail line or becomes a ghetto.

Parramatta and Blacktown wont get any of the important businesses even with subisidies because no one wants to move there. Medium to top end Business still wants to be in the CBD and Northern Sydney. So an area has to have proper links to these areas or it will not gentrify.

And yes with gentrification that brings density and housing choice. It also makes an area sustainable which as it stands the NW is not in my book.

 

[monty python]

There is plenty of internal demand in the NW, the facilities (shopping, schools, leisure, sports) and people are great, and we have given up on a train line being built.
We and most of our friends work locally (Hills, Northern Suburbs, Blacktown) so we don't need a train line. If we need to go to the city, there is a bus T-way, or if desperate we can drive to a train station (eg Westmead, or one on the Richmond line).
Our PPOR is here in the NW, we've lived here for over 10 years (moved 3 times) and have done very well CG-wise. We are mortgage-free, our kids go to a great school, we have all we need here.

Earthday, I would recommend you don't count on a NW rail link and base your decision on that assumption. Baulkham Hills is a large suburb with good and bad areas, and as PennyK suggests I would think about buying a detached house rather than a townhouse for CG.

 

[Jacque]

Hi Earthday

I feel somewhat qualified to comment here, given that I live and work in the Hills and have bought several units, townhouses, houses and land blocks in this area for clients and myself in the last 12 years

Baulkham Hills is a great suburb- sure there are sections you may want to stay away from due to freeway noise, poorly managed strata buildings etc but it's not different than any suburb really. Depending on your budget and your criteria you will be paying anything from mid $400K's up to mid $600K's for medium density dwellings of this nature. Units are cheaper, but investors prefer townhouses for their capacity to generally hold value better. Houses range from low $500K's through to $1m+ depending again on area, size and condition of property.

Forget counting on the rail link- it's been planned on and off since 1985 and until the first clod of earth is turned I wouldn't be relying on it as a sole incentive to invest in this area.

What this Hills suburb has going for it (as do nearby suburbs including Northmead, Winston Hills, Castle Hill, Cherrybrook etc) is price affordability, demographics mainly consisting of families, high owner-occupier population, good schools and amenities, rapid cbd bus transport (be careful when purchasing to ensure you stick to walking distance routes to major stops eg: Old Northern Rd, Castle Hill Rd) great shopping, loads of sporting grounds/parks and a generally "nice" feel.
As for others comments about suburbs without rail not appreciating as much, that's actually a myth - if you compare the average cg over the last decade in housing of a rail suburb eg: Chatswood 6.42% to Baulkham Hills 6.12% you'll see there's little difference. Sure, transport is important and I agree but it's certainly not the only determinant of an area's capacity for potential growth. You need to also consider so many other factors.

Anyway, got to fly- just thought I'd pop in and add my 2c worth here.
Best of luck with your search.

 

[pennyk]

Parramatta and Blacktown wont get any of the important businesses even with subisidies because no one wants to move there. Medium to top end Business still wants to be in the CBD and Northern Sydney. So an area has to have proper links to these areas or it will not gentrify.
.

Well, I have to disagree with this point... I work in Norwest Business Park and the number of big firms moving in here continues to grow at a rapid pace... I wouldn't have believed there was still space for them, but everyday there are new companies moving in.
Pen

 

[twobobsworth]

Parramatta and Blacktown wont get any of the important businesses even with subisidies because no one wants to move there.

True. When I worked in the CBD our mail room had wonderful harbour views. Discussions were had about moving out west but because the management lived on the lower north shore and eastern suburbs it had buckleys of getting up.

Would need to be a pretty big carrot.

 

[earthday]

Thanks all, I really appreciate your perspectives.

Based on comments, perhaps I shouldn't be as concerned with the impact of the proposed NWRL on CG in Baulkham Hills - as mentioned, my fear was that surrounding suburbs (on or near the line) would experience much greater growth than for example, Baulkham Hills.

Interested to read that there are many other factors that have an impact. Are the main things I should be considering access to schools, parks, buses, shops etc, in addition to the property itself. Regarding a stand alone house vs townhouse, my reason for looking at townhouses was because I don't want to exceed $550,000. Whilst there are stand alone houses in the area, these are barely in my price range, and if I purchased something that required work it would be added $ and time, which is a consideration given our first child should be on the way within 12 - 18 months.

Checking this regularly and reading with interest.

Thanks again.

 

[Jacque]

Thanks all, I really appreciate your perspectives.

Based on comments, perhaps I shouldn't be as concerned with the impact of the proposed NWRL on CG in Baulkham Hills - as mentioned, my fear was that surrounding suburbs (on or near the line) would experience much greater growth than for example, Baulkham Hills.

Interested to read that there are many other factors that have an impact. Are the main things I should be considering access to schools, parks, buses, shops etc, in addition to the property itself. Regarding a stand alone house vs townhouse, my reason for looking at townhouses was because I don't want to exceed $550,000. Whilst there are stand alone houses in the area, these are barely in my price range, and if I purchased something that required work it would be added $ and time, which is a consideration given our first child should be on the way within 12 - 18 months.

Checking this regularly and reading with interest.

Thanks again.

Hi Earthday

$550K will buy you a 3x2x2 in B/Hills but it's still a very active market. If you find something that suits, I wouldn't muck about too much as the good ones are selling very quickly.

 

[dajackal]

the state government will be introducing metrobuses along the castle hill to cbd via baulkham hills route:
http://www.nsw.gov.au/news/metrobus-expansion-across-sydney

given that buses along this route run from early morning through to late in the evening, and even operate on weekends, it pretty much replaces trains for the NW residents in my view.


sorry to derail the OP, but i was hoping the experts could help me identify the good and bad areas of baulkham hills and whether there is more demand for houses within walking distance to the citybuses. also, how much should one expect to pay for a modest 3 bedroom house?

 

[Red Car]

True. When I worked in the CBD our mail room had wonderful harbour views. Discussions were had about moving out west but because the management lived on the lower north shore and eastern suburbs it had buckleys of getting up.

Would need to be a pretty big carrot.

Bingo! I have been told there are already some form of subsidies in place to encourage this sort of thing but the movement outside of your CBD/ Nth Syd type area is still fairly limited. Even the number of jobs in Chatswood has dropped recently. Although Macquarie Park seems to be doing well. I for one would love to see Parramatta take on true second CBD status as Sydney as a whole would be better off if it did. However you will see that in the latest NSW Metropolitan strategy the Government has actually toned down the numbers for predicted job growth in this and other Western Suburbs areas. Its going to take some big Infrastructure spending to get Parramatta to where it needs to be for what people are touting it as.

A lot of people mention the buses from the NW to the CBD but I have talked to many people who actually use them and their reports are less than complimentary...

 

[twobobsworth]

Bingo! I have been told there are already some form of subsidies in place to encourage this sort of thing but the movement outside of your CBD/ Nth Syd type area is still fairly limited.

Needs to be things like payroll tax exemptions based on postcode location - but it ain't going to happen.

Maybe relocate the ASX out there!

 

[monty python]

dajackal, I don't live in Baulkham Hills so can't comment specifically, I am referring to the Hills District in general.

If buying in Baulkham Hills, stay away from buying on or very near the busy roads (Old Windsor Rd, Windsor Rd, Old Northern Rd, Seven Hills Rd). There are quiet leafy streets throughout the area. Note however that the streets near the M2 junction with Windsor Rd are used for commuter parking .
You should be able to buy an older-style 3br brick home for mid-$500s.
There are several public schools with great reputations in the area, also St Michaels, and Baulkham Hills High School is a selective school.
Consider also nearby suburbs such as Winston Hills, Northmead, Castle Hill (+$$), Kellyville.

If you are buying a PPOR, I believe you should buy somewhere you love and will be a good place to raise your family, and future CG should be a secondary consideration.

 

[w0nnie]

Needs to be things like payroll tax exemptions based on postcode location - but it ain't going to happen.

Maybe relocate the ASX out there!

for parramatta, the missing link from epping to parra would make a huge difference, opening up jobs in both directions.. but as with any PT in this state, dont hold your breathe.

anyone making decisions based on PT proposals in NSW (even with some earthworks, see metro for that) might as well just go to the local RSL and play the pokies.