I understand all about fractional banking, it explains things nice and easily until you look deeper. A million dollars deposited works its way around the system that has a 10% reserve until it becomes 10 million, but that's it. New money must be created to become more than the $10m.
I find this a disturbing way to look at it. No new money is created "out of thin air" here. It's just the bank writes loans (and accepts deposits in turn) for 10X the amount it can actually cover through the fractional reserve process. If all 10 depositors in the previous example of Mandy's all wanted their money at the same time, they would only find 1/10th of it available - the orginal amount of money is all there ever was. The rest is just about trust in the bank not causing a run. If a run occurs without a govt guarantee in place then we all find 90% of the money was never there.
I find it analogous to the real estate market. If all the real estate owners in Australia decided to sell up tomorrow, then we would find there isn't enough money available for anyone to get anywhere near today's market value. Prices are set on the low volume of transactions that currently occur, combined with the availability of money for that volume of transactions. Both real estate prices and the supply of money itself is set at the margins.
Foreign borrowings just don't cut it. If ANZ goes and borrows $US10b from the US banks they have $US10b, not $A11b. If this just sits on their books as $US, where do the $A100b that they lend out come from. If it is only $A11b lent out where does it come from?? If it is exchanged for $A from another source, then that is existing money and not newly created money.
There is a lot more to this money creation than is explained in economics 101.
bye
Agreed. I think some of us may be missing something really basic here. The RBA sets the supply of AUD in the market through the mechanism of the overnight cash rate (OCR). From wiki:
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is the interest rate paid by banks in the overnight money market in Australia and New Zealand. Through the regulated use of Exchange Settlement Accounts, a central bank is able to adjust the interest rates of a nation's economy. The OCR cannot be changed by transactions between financial institutions as this does not change the supply of money, only its location. Only transfers between the central bank and an institution can affect the cash rate.
As banks are made to settle all inter-bank transfers overnight, the central bank can regulate the rate paid for cash by the sale or buy back of bonds and other government issued securities (these are known as domestic market operations). As the sale or purchase of bonds affects the supply of money, then the interest rate will change to reflect its availability. This system indirectly influences the term structure of interest rates in the whole economy. Changes to the official cash rate generally affect the rates on housing and other loans within a matter of days or weeks. Under the Australian system the Reserve Bank of Australia issues its dealing intentions at the start of each day, and banks and other financial institutions will act prior to the actual rate being achieved.
The current OCR is 4.5%. This means in the short term that banks can borrow an
infinite amount of money from the RBA at this rate. If they need more, the RBA just prints more - that's how they regulate the supply of money - set a rate and see how much demand there is. Of course, if the RBA sees that this rate causes too much money supply into the economy (too much demand at their doors overnight) and the consequent threat of inflation, then it raises the rate to reduce that demand. If there's not enough people knocking on the Bank's doors every night and the consequent threat of deflation? Then drop the OCR to stimulate demand for money. We all know how this works - the RBA is the only body that can print AUD. That's why the OCR is so important. Banks only go overseas when they can get money cheaper, allowing for someone to take the exchange rate risk.
BTW we cannot import AUD from overseas! For everyone who exchanges USD for AUD, there is someone else doing the reverse. No money is created or destroyed. All the US dollars brought into the country have been exchanged for AU dollars going to the US. It's a zero sum game - they hold AUD and we hold USD.
Movements in the exchange rate reflect all of this - if overseas entities are investing heavily into Australia (in whatever form - equities, bank bonds, real estate etc), increasing our "overseas debt" then the demand for AUD is high and the exchange rate is high. If they turn around and stop doing this and just demand their money back on the payment plan then the exchange rate will drop accordingly. We saw this happen in the GFC when all the foreign investors were desperately trying to repatriate their funds. AUD sank like a stone. Great for our exporters when it happens...
If we have high net foreign debt, it is because Australia is seen as a good place to invest, despite a record high exchange rate ATM. If everything turns to custard again and the exchange rate drops then the losers will be
the foreign investors, not us. Australians would effectively benefit from a huge wealth transfer from all those mugs who thought AUD looked good at the time. There is risk taken in both sides of the CAD (current account deficit) equation - the people converting USD/EU/RMB etc into AUD to invest in Australia are taking just as much risk as those taking the other side of the bet - it's a zero sum game, which is why you don't hear much about it out there.
If NFD (net foreign debt) keeps rising and rising to infinity, the exchange rate will keep rising with it, making the attractiveness of AUD to foreign investors less and less, so it can't continue indefinitely. However, the system can easily accomodate indefinitely the present situation where the AUD is in fashion and NFD is high. If the Fed keeps up with printing money (it can't get enough demand for USD any more even with near zero % interest rates to cause inflation), then expect the exchange rate to go even higher and our NFD increase even more.
Note none of this has any impact on the impacts of foreign ownership of national assets, which is a completely different proposition relating to the transfer of wealth in the future upside associated with those assets, not the trading of money.
I hope this clears a few things up?