US Real Estate Crash
- Thread starter PDM
- Start date
interesting
I reckon the situation there is becoming increasingly interesting for Aussie investors and domestic house prices. I remember 10 years ago that USA house prices were generally much more than Aussie prices. Now with the parady in exchange rates, a medium national house price of just over 200 k is 'cheap as chips'. So regardless of the reasons for the property decline over there and the boom over here - there figures cant be ignored - for investors anyway.
Also means expats to the USA get better bang for their buck. If you are in the right industries moving there may be a good option.
I reckon the situation there is becoming increasingly interesting for Aussie investors and domestic house prices. I remember 10 years ago that USA house prices were generally much more than Aussie prices. Now with the parady in exchange rates, a medium national house price of just over 200 k is 'cheap as chips'. So regardless of the reasons for the property decline over there and the boom over here - there figures cant be ignored - for investors anyway.
Also means expats to the USA get better bang for their buck. If you are in the right industries moving there may be a good option.
that's interesting. when i was in the US I noticed that their new builts were very good quality and very different style to oz.
i would like to move to the U.S, maybe enter the greeen card lottery
but employees only get 10 days leave p.a...it's no wonder americans don't get travel outside their own country much.
i would like to move to the U.S, maybe enter the greeen card lottery
but employees only get 10 days leave p.a...it's no wonder americans don't get travel outside their own country much.
Calling all the GHPC brigade !
kicked out, invited back, kicked out, invited back .....
(might be easier just to link to old posts!)
Property in the states, like many other countries is no where near as fetishized as it is out here. Plus there are so many markets within a market. Dont hold your breath waiting for cheap Manhattan property though.
The economy may be going strong but to tell you the truth, I am suprised with Interest rates going up, and affordabillty supposedly streatched, prices continue to climb & in some markets go nuts. Thats confidence for you.
The nation unemployment of 4.3 is just that national, some parts are alot higher. I do believe some pockets of Sydney have been in a quiet reccession. I can tell from lack of sales, shops closing and bad debts through my work( Im in wholesale ). I also note property prices have not faired so well in these areas.
I do believe if the economy goes backwards a real price correction could be on the cards. But hey, my opinions worth what you paid for it.
The economy may be going strong but to tell you the truth, I am suprised with Interest rates going up, and affordabillty supposedly streatched, prices continue to climb & in some markets go nuts. Thats confidence for you.
The nation unemployment of 4.3 is just that national, some parts are alot higher. I do believe some pockets of Sydney have been in a quiet reccession. I can tell from lack of sales, shops closing and bad debts through my work( Im in wholesale ). I also note property prices have not faired so well in these areas.
I do believe if the economy goes backwards a real price correction could be on the cards. But hey, my opinions worth what you paid for it.
that's interesting. when i was in the US I noticed that their new builts were very good quality and very different style to oz.
i would like to move to the U.S, maybe enter the greeen card lottery
but employees only get 10 days leave p.a...it's no wonder americans don't get travel outside their own country much.
Why go for the green card? Simply walk across the US southern border.
My wife and I lived in Scottsdale, Arizona. A desert paradise. The market has crashed in the Phoenix area and will continue to do so (IMO). I'd say wait and let it bleed more. Also in Miami, Florida, condos are currently selling for 50 cents on the dollar.
I thought Miami Beach was over rated but the key largo area was lovely.
If we're talking about Florida...hmm I 'd like to live in Ft Lauderdale and spend my days at the Sawgrass Mills
But I feel it's very similar to Bris in terms of weather...well bris is probably better! and we're closer to family entertainment. Orlando is a 4hr drive from Ft lauderdale.
What about New Jersey property prices? could live in NJ and just commute.
If we're talking about Florida...hmm I 'd like to live in Ft Lauderdale and spend my days at the Sawgrass Mills
But I feel it's very similar to Bris in terms of weather...well bris is probably better! and we're closer to family entertainment. Orlando is a 4hr drive from Ft lauderdale.
What about New Jersey property prices? could live in NJ and just commute.
I thought Miami Beach was over rated but the key largo area was lovely.
If we're talking about Florida...hmm I 'd like to live in Ft Lauderdale and spend my days at the Sawgrass Mills
But I feel it's very similar to Bris in terms of weather...well bris is probably better! and we're closer to family entertainment. Orlando is a 4hr drive from Ft lauderdale.
What about New Jersey property prices? could live in NJ and just commute.
New Jersey? Which exit?
Here is a blog following the mess back in the States - http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html
And an Aussie site -
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/
I thought Miami Beach was over rated but the key largo area was lovely.
If we're talking about Florida...hmm I 'd like to live in Ft Lauderdale and spend my days at the Sawgrass Mills
But I feel it's very similar to Bris in terms of weather...well bris is probably better! and we're closer to family entertainment. Orlando is a 4hr drive from Ft lauderdale.
What about New Jersey property prices? could live in NJ and just commute.
Oops...I meant to add you can shop US real estate here - http://www.realtor.com/
I'm still waiting
I'd love to see an 8-19% drop in median house prices in the suburbs I like, don't think it's going to happen in the near future thou.
The US is still under 5% for housing interest rates and we are sitting around 8% no wonder the cash is moving into Oz and increasing the aus$.
At a micro level none of this affects the people that are buying property in my little part of the world, all they care about is can they pay the mortgage.
cheers
quoll
I'd love to see an 8-19% drop in median house prices in the suburbs I like, don't think it's going to happen in the near future thou.
The US is still under 5% for housing interest rates and we are sitting around 8% no wonder the cash is moving into Oz and increasing the aus$.
At a micro level none of this affects the people that are buying property in my little part of the world, all they care about is can they pay the mortgage.
cheers
quoll
Hi All
I don't think our property market will collapse as we are not in the same situation of specualtion and over supply to those who cannot afford it but the effect could influence us.
Remember State Bank of Victoria and Tricontinental and Pyramid Building Society. Try these link for more.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Bank_of_Victoria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyramid_Building_Society
All caused by bad loans. AS written in Wiki
The vast majority of the losses suffered by Pyramid and the whole Farrow Group had been from ventures into commercial property, frequently lending aggressively to speculative projects.
Doubtful loans were hidden in the books by various techniques, such as capitalizing fees and interest into the loan balance, changing the loan conditions, or even selling the property into a subsidiary company for a price that covered the debt. Staff were paid a commission on new lending business, which is proper enough, but also for improving bad loans, which gave them an incentive to rearrange the affairs of borrowers who were in default.
This is the US situation without the regulation we now have.
Peter 14.7
I don't think our property market will collapse as we are not in the same situation of specualtion and over supply to those who cannot afford it but the effect could influence us.
Remember State Bank of Victoria and Tricontinental and Pyramid Building Society. Try these link for more.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Bank_of_Victoria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyramid_Building_Society
All caused by bad loans. AS written in Wiki
The vast majority of the losses suffered by Pyramid and the whole Farrow Group had been from ventures into commercial property, frequently lending aggressively to speculative projects.
Doubtful loans were hidden in the books by various techniques, such as capitalizing fees and interest into the loan balance, changing the loan conditions, or even selling the property into a subsidiary company for a price that covered the debt. Staff were paid a commission on new lending business, which is proper enough, but also for improving bad loans, which gave them an incentive to rearrange the affairs of borrowers who were in default.
This is the US situation without the regulation we now have.
Peter 14.7
Seems to me what we are seeing in the US housing problems is a function of the global change in economic power from the US to China which is happening in realtime. In a nutshell, the US is still losing manufacturing industries, and along with them the jobs, to China. Areas like Detroit for example used to make components for the auto industry. All these "widgets" are now made in China ....no manufacturing, no jobs, hence cannot make house payments. Walk away.
In Aussie (God bless the little bleeder!) we've got exactly the other end "of the stick". We're feeding the China economic powerhouse with energy and minerals as fast as we can open the mines and dig the stuff out of the ground. This activity is flowing right through our economy (including housing)and is forecast to continue for some time.
Two ENTIRELY different scenarios. No comparison between the US housing situation and ours ...as it seems to me.
LL
In Aussie (God bless the little bleeder!) we've got exactly the other end "of the stick". We're feeding the China economic powerhouse with energy and minerals as fast as we can open the mines and dig the stuff out of the ground. This activity is flowing right through our economy (including housing)and is forecast to continue for some time.
Two ENTIRELY different scenarios. No comparison between the US housing situation and ours ...as it seems to me.
LL
I think that trying to compare in terms of 'could it happen here' is probably a useless venture.
The importance more being 'what is'! Ie house are dam cheap over there compared to Australia. If there is better perceived value then USA will imporve in terms of being a place to invest and maybe even live.
The importance more being 'what is'! Ie house are dam cheap over there compared to Australia. If there is better perceived value then USA will imporve in terms of being a place to invest and maybe even live.
From investment point of view, I wouldn't think Santa Barbara would be good, as the yield would be very low, just like you wouldn't buy a Toorak mansion as an investment.
Its difficult to generalise about the USA. Some parts are very cheap, other parts are very expensive. The crash will of course be in the expensive areas - what goes up .....
Australia on the other hand is all expensive - tell me a cheap capital city to live in for housing and I will move there! I don't think you can.
Yieldmatters
Thanks for telling me how to suck eggs - Some houses in the USA are expensive hey (gee wiz) - and some are cheap - (wow) genius stuff. It was offcourse a general comment pertaining to the average house prices.
I cant tell you a cheap city in Australia - your point being???
Try picking your nose rather than fights that arent there, it might be more productive.
Thanks for telling me how to suck eggs - Some houses in the USA are expensive hey (gee wiz) - and some are cheap - (wow) genius stuff. It was offcourse a general comment pertaining to the average house prices.
I cant tell you a cheap city in Australia - your point being???
Try picking your nose rather than fights that arent there, it might be more productive.
