What do you think the Reserve Bank will do with interest rates in Dec 04?
- Thread starter Aceyducey
- Start date
I agree with Rolf, and further would note that the RBA likes to try and jawbone the economy when it can get away with it - talk credit growth down, while leaving the loaded gun of interest rates in its holster.
If that doesn't work, they pull it out and wave it around before shooting (after all, no-one else is armed
)
If that doesn't work, they pull it out and wave it around before shooting (after all, no-one else is armed
)
HI all
I agree RBA use their greatest weapon " fear" and like to talk. And It would appear a rise in Dec is unlikely at this stage.
However I also believe that had Oil prices not risen as much we would have had a rise in December.
I mean, other than Oil there is not a lot of bad news out there in the economy.
THE NEXT COMMENT IS MINE MIXED WITH ROSS GITTENS
Unemployment is down to 5.3 per cent, its lowest in 27 years. But is this still far too high, or worryingly low?
And despite the popular line from the Government's critics is to say that, even if you thought a 5.3 per cent unemployment rate was satisfactory, it's not genuine. The official unemployment figures greatly understate the full extent of unemployment, with people who pick up just an hour or two's casual work being classed as "employed".
However that’s because the internationally agreed definition we use of what it takes to be unemployed is very narrow. It was the definition when the official rate was at its peak of almost 11 per cent in December 1992 as it is today when the official rate's down at 5.3 per cent.
Simple figures like the above highlight the overall massive structural strength in our economy at present. As a thirty eight year old I have been a adult on 20 years and hence unemployment is the lowest ever in my entire working life.
Think about that statement.......unemployment is the lowest ever in the working life of the average aged Australian.
When you also consider that Interest rates are around the lowest for 30 years or so, you can see we are presently in a unique time.
Whether it stays that way, only time will tell?
Peter 147
I agree RBA use their greatest weapon " fear" and like to talk. And It would appear a rise in Dec is unlikely at this stage.
However I also believe that had Oil prices not risen as much we would have had a rise in December.
I mean, other than Oil there is not a lot of bad news out there in the economy.
THE NEXT COMMENT IS MINE MIXED WITH ROSS GITTENS
Unemployment is down to 5.3 per cent, its lowest in 27 years. But is this still far too high, or worryingly low?
And despite the popular line from the Government's critics is to say that, even if you thought a 5.3 per cent unemployment rate was satisfactory, it's not genuine. The official unemployment figures greatly understate the full extent of unemployment, with people who pick up just an hour or two's casual work being classed as "employed".
However that’s because the internationally agreed definition we use of what it takes to be unemployed is very narrow. It was the definition when the official rate was at its peak of almost 11 per cent in December 1992 as it is today when the official rate's down at 5.3 per cent.
Simple figures like the above highlight the overall massive structural strength in our economy at present. As a thirty eight year old I have been a adult on 20 years and hence unemployment is the lowest ever in my entire working life.
Think about that statement.......unemployment is the lowest ever in the working life of the average aged Australian.
When you also consider that Interest rates are around the lowest for 30 years or so, you can see we are presently in a unique time.
Whether it stays that way, only time will tell?
Peter 147
>Think about that statement.......unemployment is the lowest ever in the >working life of the average aged Australian.
Not every area in the market is enjoying low unemployment, the IT, (reported around 20%) specially software engineering (R & D development) has been slammed over the last few yrs in this country and with more offshoring there will plenty more jobs going to India.
David
Not every area in the market is enjoying low unemployment, the IT, (reported around 20%) specially software engineering (R & D development) has been slammed over the last few yrs in this country and with more offshoring there will plenty more jobs going to India.
David
DavidPleydell said:
Hi David
I am sorry to hear ( I assume) your industry is doing it tough. However my point was that overall employment if the still very low and hence more people have jobs and $$$ to spend to keep the cycle going.
But your post does highlight again why Aust is one of the boom economies.
In the early 2000 (that long ago!) I remember a number of "experts" complaining the Aust was not the clever country re IT (Tech Boom) and in fact we were behind the rest of the world. What those experts didn't realize then is IT jobs are the most transferable, inter state and inter Country.
Since then Globalization has brought both good (cars to US, Middle East, Rice to Japan, Beef to Japan) and bad (IT jobs to India, textile jobs to South East Asia) news to our economy. However IMO overall we have been winners.
On the basis you are IT and finding jobs hard may I say I understand your problem as I use to work in the architecture industry which is notorious for boom and bust. The market is totally out of my control. So much I was retrenched twice in 1990 (lack of work) and 1992 (company went under).
The first time taught me that not to put my financial future and career in someone else’s hands. So in 1991 I undertook a clerk of works at TAFE. 3 hard years at night. By 1992 I had the skills to start my first business and control my own affairs. I have never looked back.
Always keep learning and ensure only YOU manage your career. No job is permanent.
You only have to ask you parents what they did and see if that job still exists. In many cases it does not or has changed significantly. My dad was a fully qualified boiler assistant. My mother a home help lady (in house aged care worker).
Regards, Peter 147
When the low skilled jobs got outsourced overseas everyone worried there'd be no jobs left for Australians - predictions put up to 30% of the Australian population on the dole.
Didn't happen.
Programming is becoming more and more a low-skilled hack job. Let the Indians have them.
Australians will learn a few more skills & become more valuable workers - and so the cycle goes on.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
Didn't happen.
Programming is becoming more and more a low-skilled hack job. Let the Indians have them.
Australians will learn a few more skills & become more valuable workers - and so the cycle goes on.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
Hi All
UPDATE so far...
A massive 90% are for no change ,
5% for a .25% rise and
one sole for a greater than 0.5% which could be SNR
Acey, I am still yet to vote and desperately searching for data to support my gut view and swing the masses. Perhaps I should link it to a policy on the Tasmainian Forests
Peter 147
UPDATE so far...
A massive 90% are for no change ,
5% for a .25% rise and
one sole for a greater than 0.5% which could be SNR
Acey, I am still yet to vote and desperately searching for data to support my gut view and swing the masses.
Perhaps I should link it to a policy on the Tasmainian Forests Peter 147
I'm not too sure if anything will happen in December . This evenings speech by Ian Mcfarlane may give a very good indication.
It looks as though he is urging the lenders to do their bit in reducing household debt and credit quality as opposed to forcing it himself by raising interest rates.
A very good speech I thought. Good to see we have someone with their finger fair on the pulse of the Australian economy.
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/041116/19/237s.html
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/041116/19/237t.html
It looks as though he is urging the lenders to do their bit in reducing household debt and credit quality as opposed to forcing it himself by raising interest rates.
A very good speech I thought. Good to see we have someone with their finger fair on the pulse of the Australian economy.
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/041116/19/237s.html
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/041116/19/237t.html
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Peter 147 said:
Hi Peter 147,
True, no jobs are forever but it's interesting how there are sectors that are harder hit while the general public are non the wiser. Yes that is my profession and I'm not sure about the other post saying it's a hack job is completely correct.
I don't think spending 4yrs at Uni to get an Engineering degree and then have jobs sent to India is very productive for this country. Aceyducey, what new skills do you expect people to get? Another degree? Do I have to pay another $15k hecs debt? The cars exporting is only good due to the tariffs, if they get removed that will cost jobs as well. (A friend works for Holden)
There are aspects of programming that can be done by lower experienced workers. Usually gradutes do that. I think the IT field also killed itself, to many areas expecting way to high salaries for what they did. Just my opinions on such matters.
I was also retrenched twice but work now in the similar area. So you have done well as I know how hard it can be.
I cannot complain about the Market, I have done ok on my properties. I try to invest so I don't have to worry if ever I get retrenched again. I'm more bearish on property (ie looking at fixing loans) and bullish on the shares at the moment.
David
I notice that Westpac's survey out today indicated very stong activity in the economy, leading to a speculation that industry was nearing capacity in production terms in some areas. That in turn has inflationary characteristics (largely through investment demand for capital goods and wage pressures) which the RBA may choose to address through a rate rise.
Plus, to no-one's surprise the Fed raised rates as soon as the US election was over. I'll stick with my no change prediction, but I reckon equally that a rate rise is close.
On current performance, I expect one rise of 0.25% in the first quarter of calendar 2005.
Plus, to no-one's surprise the Fed raised rates as soon as the US election was over. I'll stick with my no change prediction, but I reckon equally that a rate rise is close.
On current performance, I expect one rise of 0.25% in the first quarter of calendar 2005.
DavidPleydell said:
Hi David
I am pleased you took my comments in good faith.
I also fix all my loans. Security is important to me as well.
I'm sure Acey meant no personal attack however his comment was a little blunt. I think his background is IT as well.
Personally I am always in awe of IT experts and in my business, commercial building managment those that spend their time keeping networks up and runnings are in strong demand. This may not be sexy but niether is BM versus Architectural Design but I know which one pays best!
HIgh Pays = Greed is Bad. I remember everyone rushing to IT careers because of the high pay only to see oversupply of grads and the resultant crash.
BTW Oil will suffer the same fault if prices are too high too long.
Today Bob Carr annouced the NSW Fleet (2800 cars) will only every be V6 or less and not V8 unless essential like Police highway pursit.
A small drop but they change those cars every 24 months so the flow on to the resale market will be felt. Personally the Alfa is more economical against the previous Subaru.
On topic I await Wages Data out today.
Peter 147
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David,
Spending four years at uni doesn't mean the government owes you a job for life!
You can't stop the jobs going to India - but you can become more valuable in your profession.
In IT the trick is to become an Information Architect, Security Expert or Usability Professional.
In Engineering the trick is to go into wireless technologies or work overseas managing a herd of those Indian engineers as they learn the skills. Alternatively create a better car engine, desalinisation plant or flashlight, patent it & license it.
You should recall that the term 'computer' was a human job title before the 1950s and thousands upon thousands of people worked in typing pools.
When those jobs vanished due to automation did the unemployment rate jump 20% permanently? Or did the majority of those people end up in more interesting & better paid positions?
Remember that the terms 'Programmer', 'Multimedia Artist', 'Chief Security Officer', 'Application Architect', 'Lead Cynic', 'Product Evangelist', 'Lifestyle Consultant', 'Dog Psychologist' , 'Intellectual Property Innovator' and many others didn't exist as job descriptions until recently. Now they are all very well paid positions.
Find an unexploited niche & exploit it - then be prepared to jump to the next in ten years when the wave follows.
Cheers,
Craig
Spending four years at uni doesn't mean the government owes you a job for life!
You can't stop the jobs going to India - but you can become more valuable in your profession.
In IT the trick is to become an Information Architect, Security Expert or Usability Professional.
In Engineering the trick is to go into wireless technologies or work overseas managing a herd of those Indian engineers as they learn the skills. Alternatively create a better car engine, desalinisation plant or flashlight, patent it & license it.
You should recall that the term 'computer' was a human job title before the 1950s and thousands upon thousands of people worked in typing pools.
When those jobs vanished due to automation did the unemployment rate jump 20% permanently? Or did the majority of those people end up in more interesting & better paid positions?
Remember that the terms 'Programmer', 'Multimedia Artist', 'Chief Security Officer', 'Application Architect', 'Lead Cynic', 'Product Evangelist', 'Lifestyle Consultant', 'Dog Psychologist' , 'Intellectual Property Innovator' and many others didn't exist as job descriptions until recently. Now they are all very well paid positions.
Find an unexploited niche & exploit it - then be prepared to jump to the next in ten years when the wave follows.
Cheers,
Craig
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BTW - here's an article about how Indian salaries are getting too high to compete
The wheel turns....
Cheers,
Aceyducey
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FK16Df06.html
The wheel turns....
Cheers,
Aceyducey
It
As an Australian IT contractor working in the UK, I can see the same theme happening over here with jobs moving to India. Fortunately my area is very much in demand so we can still earn around £500+ per day. I'm not a programmer though (otherwise I'd be earning a lot less!). My value is in being able to convert business requirements into system solutions. This is where I believe the value of IT professionals in Western countries will be - in offering strategic direction for IT solutions. We'll never be able to compete with India etc... for cutting code but those of us who have good consulting and communication skills will do much better.
Rachel
As an Australian IT contractor working in the UK, I can see the same theme happening over here with jobs moving to India. Fortunately my area is very much in demand so we can still earn around £500+ per day. I'm not a programmer though (otherwise I'd be earning a lot less!). My value is in being able to convert business requirements into system solutions. This is where I believe the value of IT professionals in Western countries will be - in offering strategic direction for IT solutions. We'll never be able to compete with India etc... for cutting code but those of us who have good consulting and communication skills will do much better.
Rachel
Aceyducey, I agree they don't owe me a job but it's sad that education of that level doesn't give some advantage. You are correct with the areas you mentioned to move into coz they cannot offshore jobs that need people here. However my background is in embedded design (microprocessors hardware and software) hence those other areas don't suit my previous experience and in a down turn it's hard to jump areas. In boom times and people shortage, it's easy. I've have jumped across now, database development.
I also thought it would be silly for the indians not to start asking for higher wages more so if they are still well below our wages. With a low Aussie dollar, that actually helped us with US companies coming here.
I think Rachel is correct, business is more the go now. I would have liked to do project management but never got into that before things went pear shaped.
David
I also thought it would be silly for the indians not to start asking for higher wages more so if they are still well below our wages. With a low Aussie dollar, that actually helped us with US companies coming here.
I think Rachel is correct, business is more the go now. I would have liked to do project management but never got into that before things went pear shaped.
David
David,
I don't regard university education as being very high level - if they'd give me a degree they'd give it to anyone!
The key is NEVER the education. It's your personal abilities & attitude.
IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, Apple and other organisations are renowned for hiring people with the right attitude but wrong degree & training them.
BTW, there's still lots of project management opportunities if you do one of the courses.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
I don't regard university education as being very high level - if they'd give me a degree they'd give it to anyone!
The key is NEVER the education. It's your personal abilities & attitude.
IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, Apple and other organisations are renowned for hiring people with the right attitude but wrong degree & training them.
BTW, there's still lots of project management opportunities if you do one of the courses.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
Sim
Administrator
Aceyducey said:
IBM took a slightly different approach with me ... I had the right degree and the right skills and the completely wrong attitude, but they plied me with cash and gadgets to play with, and now I'm (mostly) a well behaved little puppy dog
mmm... speaking of which, I'm starting to feel like some more toys are needed in time for Christmas ... might have to start scratching at the sofa a bit more
Sim said:IBM took a slightly different approach with me ... I had the right degree and the right skills and the completely wrong attitude, but they plied me with cash and gadgets to play with, and now I'm (mostly) a well behaved little puppy dog
mmm... speaking of which, I'm starting to feel like some more toys are needed in time for Christmas ... might have to start scratching at the sofa a bit more
You IT dudes? All Jeans and X Files T Shirts
Me jealous? No. Peter
