What effects will the Free Trade Agreement with the US have on AU property markets?

[Aceyducey]

Hi all,

The Free Trade Agreement has finally been signed between the US and AU. Read a report on it here: http://afr.com/articles/2004/02/09/1076175059377.html

What do you believe will be the effects - direct or indirect - on Australian property markets over the next few years?

I've provided a poll for brevity, but please write replies on your views!!!

Is it a good thing, a bad thing or a distraction?

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[Peter 14.7]

Ahh Acey. Ahead of the pack as usual.

I asked you this question back in Houses in Free Fall Thread adding it to our debate re interest rate v Aus $. Please ignore and I will watch here.

As for IMHO in first check I dont see much benefit ? Which suprises me?!?!

Peter 147

 

[Aceyducey]

Peter,

Personally I feel there will be a marginal positive effect.

It does boost a number of exporters and help them counteract the higher Australian dollar.

I believe that a US recovery is more likely than not, and this will have more direct flow-throughs to Australia's economy due to this agreement than otherwise, so a marginal positive effect at this time.

The potential downside will appear in the next slump in the business cycle when Australia will be slightly more connected to the US economy and pulled down by it more than Australia has been in this current cycle.

However overall I like free trade, the more of it around the world the better, so globally this is a good thing....particularly if Australia is more active in seeking to reduce barriers to other market, particularly in Asia - short-term this is bad for us, long-term the benefits are immense.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[BV]

I could not see any reference to services in this report.
Should we assume that this deal only involves traded goods
and not services or movement of people for work purposes?

 

[astroboy]

Marginal affect in your opinion Acey ?
C'mon getting tired of meaningless polls..... sorry.
Poll this, poll that , a result that is of any benefit to the bulk of us here is unlikely...
unless you wish to demonstrate any of your recent, and many, polls that actually acheived anything that helped any of us.
astroboy

 

[Sim]

I find the polls interesting - it's useful to see what other people on the forum are thinking to measure our own opinions against everyone elses - a benchmark of sorts. If you have a vastly different opinion on something to everyone else, it may be worth asking yourself why - not so you should change your opinion, but to gain a better understanding of what's really going on.

 

[astroboy]

maybe Sim, maybe....

 

[Aceyducey]

Hey Astroboy,

Polls are not to help you achieve anything.

They serve two purposes IMHO:

Provide some guide into the viewpoint of voting forumites - useful for those seriously interested in stats, the viewpoint of the forum or providing services to forumites.

Provide some level of comfort or discomfort as to whether your views, assumptions & prejudices match those of the voting forumites (herd instinct/reassurance).

Note that I haven't seen a poll getting much more than 100 votes - with a nearly 3,000 strong forumite list (but admittedly only a few hundred frequent visitors) this is only a 3% response rate....so statistical validity is a little dicey, given that most polls are not shaped to be statistically significant. So they're more for interest than statistical exactness.

If you don't like'em don't read'em.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[Patosan]

I hve to agree with Astroboy that recently there are a heap of meaningless polls. The low % of respondents support this.

It is the low response rate that in fact make the results anything but interesting "for me".

I know, if I don't like it ... ignore it.
I went into this one only to find how someone could possibly link this topic to house prices. Sure enough there wasn't any real substance.

Anyway keep that post number ticking over.

 

[Aceyducey]

I hve to agree with Astroboy that recently there are a heap of meaningless polls. The low % of respondents support this.

It is the low response rate that in fact make the results anything but interesting "for me".

I know, if I don't like it ... ignore it.
I went into this one only to find how someone could possibly link this topic to house prices. Sure enough there wasn't any real substance.

Anyway keep that post number ticking over.

Hey Patosan,

The number of respondents to polls IMHO is about the same as it was a year ago. I don't see any drop-offs...and certainly while there are more forumites, the number of actively posting forumites hasn't increased that much.

Sure this has been a low response poll - that tells me a lot by itself - and not that it's a meaningless question, just that many forumites don't see it as relevant to them, rightly or wrongly

If you've got a view on which polls wouldn't be meaningless then put them online yourself. I love to see others being active rather than passive!

Too many people lately seem to be simply complaining about what they feel is wrong rather than being active in changing it - what does this say about the complainers?

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[MarkB]

This thread seems to have taken a wrong turn somewhere.

For what it is worth I voted that the FTA would have a marginally positive impact on Australian property markets.

However, who really knows?

I have spoken to DFAT several times in the last few weeks about the FTA and my impressions are that they are operating in a vacuum. Specific details on the agreement really have been few and far between.

In any event, the FTA still has to path through the US Congress and the Commonwealth Parliament. I imagine that both pose major issues for the FTA as we know it.

Assuming passage is relatively expeditious (a niave thought), I have been informed that the earliest the FTA could possibly be signed and take affect is later this year (and most likely early next year).

Notwithstanding these considerable uncertainties, I still gave the FTA a mild "tick" because the economist in me believes that free (or free-er) trade is a good thing and that its overall effects for the rural economy will be positive.

MB