What if property prices drop 40%?

You're not going to do it. You didn't do it when the market looked a lot better than it does now (and you missed out on gains). You're so afraid of getting it wrong and appearing stupid to both yourself and all the people you've talked to about the market since you sold that you won't take the risk. Alex

You're right - I won't do it probably for those reasons.

I'm going to go heavier into internationally diversified stocks, take on some debt to do it, and re-evaluate the property in 12 months. That gets me the tax shield I'm looking for in the short term.

I have softened my stance a bit though - I won't necessarilly try and pick the very bottom - when it looks somewhat reasonable by historical standards I will buy in, and once I am in I am going to leave it alone and not be so obsessed by opportunity cost.
 
again case by case scenario..

i know of flashy units in outer suburbs that were bought in 03/04 that have now lost 40% of real value.

there have also been some forced sales where previous prices adjusted for inflation, costs and interest payments result in the investor/owner? losing about 40% ..

i read an article in smh (domain) a while ago which included price history for some houses.. There was mention of houses in Sydney eastern suburbs losing 50% in value during early 90s recession period.. eg businees men buying in last 80s for 5 million then having to sell for as low as 2-3 million due to business circumstances and recession .. i wish i could find that article again .. :(

various LPTs that own property have crashed by much more than 40% .. their NTA will also be marked down (maybe not 40%).. commercial markets in London and NY arent faring great either..

All those scenarios are isolated instances.

When the inner city apartments were tanking in Melb, this was due to a number of factors; very high LVR's by purchasers, bought off the plan (which is a gamble on the future), paid too much to begin with (what idiot pay $650k for a 2 bed apartment in a complex of several dozen?), lots of similar developments at the same time which caused an over-supply, so they were difficult to both rent and/or sell, so both rents and re-sale prices dropped.

The combination of all the above forced many to sell at huge losses.

Meawhile, my 4 Melb properties were plodding along nicely, going up, and mostly fully tenanted.

The $5 mill houses that sold for $2mill or $3mill often happens in an economic slump. People on high incomes are not necessarily smart with money. Often times, they spend it all on stuff, and have high borrowings to fit their income. They go mad and buy the big mansion; get hocked up real good, and at that end of the price ranges, there are not as many buyers if their finances go south.

LPT's are a stock market product. It is a packaged investment, and therefore out of the investor's control and governed by the fluctuations of the stock market, which has sudden and large corrections.

The average, run-of-the-mill residential houses and units in popular areas, which is probably 90% of the market, never have this sort of fluctuation.
 
30 years ago - weren't you crawling around in nappies? :D

Yes, I was. But Sunfish is about 30 years older than I am. I can't compete with his experience and perspective now, so I'm trying to put him in my shoes.

Thanks for letting us know that. I wondered what was the reason behind this post. Now I can sleep well at night. :rolleyes:

All I'm saying is, market gyrations, or even a market bust, aren't necessarily bad things. If you can't time the market perfectly, you can still survive a bear market and get even richer in the next boom

I'm just hearing WAY too much doom and gloom lately without any discussion of what people can do to protect themselves. Instead of panicking about whether the market will crash, check what risk management you have in place.
Alex
 
Guys...for the record I am 40 years of age....yes I know an old man! I have must admit I have only seen the impact of 2-3 property cycles..... :)

Alex...Sunfish, whilst it could be possible that the property market could drop by 40%...I am on the side that says that it is going to go side ways or drop 5-10% in areas where buyers have driven prices up. This drop in median prices is going to be driven by distressed sellers as they offload due to interest rates.

By the same token...I think that by the end of the year we will see the RBA madly reducing rates....as they realise the impact interest rates really bite. I think a March 08 rates rise is about an 70% surety. I guess time will tell....

Now back to the fundamentals......if we have 180k people coming in and another 180k people being born.....it means the population is growing at about 1.8%. At the same time the number of houses being built has drop from 152k to 150k leaving us with shortfall of 30k in terms of housing. Note that 33% of the OZ population wants to get into the housing but cannot afford to and the government just can't provide enought housing. As a matter of fact in NSW the DH (Dept of Housing) is selling theirs....nice of them to do that...as I am looking at some of their stuff!

Now I am no economic expert....but as demand and supply gets out of kilter you have price pressures building. Whilst, I don't think there will be pressure as interest rates climb....there will be pressure when interest rates come down. Note also, rents are now rising at 13% pa in Sydney....just try to rent a place anywhere in Sydney! I own a unit in the Canterbury-Bankstown areas......and I was gobsmacked to see it is getting about a 6% return based on the price I bought at...and that is under rented. By next year the yield will be over 7% as I gradually catch-up in terms of rent increases. At this rate of return...all you need as interest rates to drop for demand to jump!

For the record....I am a conservative investor and have a 35% gearing ratio....and am severely postively geared. I am sure the taxman is happy with me for my contribution!

:D
 
Guys...for the record I am 40 years of age....yes I know an old man! I have must admit I have only seen the impact of 2-3 property cycles.....

For the record....I am a conservative investor and have a 35% gearing ratio....and am severely postively geared. I am sure the taxman is happy with me for my contribution!

If you're 40 and you're optimistic about the market even in the short term, why are you so conservatively geared? Why not ramp it up? Another question: when did you start buying IPs?
Alex
 
Alex,

I am cautiously optimistic on property in the medium term.

I started with my first IP in 1999....and have bought about 1 a year most years. But the last two years I have ramped up to 2-3 per year.

I am conservative by nature....like you! I will jump in when I see opportunities...I am watching to see what pans out over the next 3 months. I focus on risk and cahsflow because if you manage this well....it is almost impossible to lose your wealth.

:D
 
Guys...for the record I am 40 years of age....yes I know an old man! I have must admit I have only seen the impact of 2-3 property cycles..... :)

:D

agree with your outlook Sash......

though I'd argue we'll see more adaptation of the market to the pressure of supply/demand <<1.

Already started with 20 somethings stayinig home longer.....

I am predicting frugal will be the new black within 18mths.....

There's lots of resources springing up on the web for saving money, having fun without spending....usually read by people over 30 or alts....but more and more, it seems middle class conventionals are starting to realize how far a dollar won't go...

Also there's a distinct increase in resentment building amongst Gen Ys towards smug BBs.....

A more interesting statistic over the next 5 years than mortgage defaults, will be the tenant delinquency rate..... I predict the TICA and RTD databases are about to see some very unhealthy growth....
 
I have only seen one cycle and any impending slump will be my first. But i was lucky, my first PPOR purchase was in 2001 before the boom and now if we do have a 40% drop in values. My PPOR and IP will have a LVR of around 90%.I can handle that especially since the same areas as my PPOR and IP will now be filled with positively geared properties.So as long as i have a job i would start buying more.
 
All those scenarios are isolated instances.

When the inner city apartments were tanking in Melb, this was due to a number of factors; very high LVR's by purchasers, bought off the plan (which is a gamble on the future), paid too much to begin with (what idiot pay $650k for a 2 bed apartment in a complex of several dozen?), lots of similar developments at the same time which caused an over-supply, so they were difficult to both rent and/or sell, so both rents and re-sale prices dropped.

The combination of all the above forced many to sell at huge losses.

Meawhile, my 4 Melb properties were plodding along nicely, going up, and mostly fully tenanted.

The $5 mill houses that sold for $2mill or $3mill often happens in an economic slump. People on high incomes are not necessarily smart with money. Often times, they spend it all on stuff, and have high borrowings to fit their income. They go mad and buy the big mansion; get hocked up real good, and at that end of the price ranges, there are not as many buyers if their finances go south.

LPT's are a stock market product. It is a packaged investment, and therefore out of the investor's control and governed by the fluctuations of the stock market, which has sudden and large corrections.

The average, run-of-the-mill residential houses and units in popular areas, which is probably 90% of the market, never have this sort of fluctuation.

Hi LA,

I agree. If you read my first post i said "if we do have a 40% across the board fall in property, that to me signals very bad times .. very high unemployment, weak economic growth, low profits, drop in consumer spending etc etc .. chances are you (and i) may not even have a job in such a economic climate.. "

Also note in the next post i stated it was a "case by case scenarios" and gave cases where property prices have dropped by 40%. I agree we wont see a drop of 40% for australia-wide median.
 
You're right - I won't do it probably for those reasons.

I'm going to go heavier into internationally diversified stocks, take on some debt to do it, and re-evaluate the property in 12 months. That gets me the tax shield I'm looking for in the short term.

I have softened my stance a bit though - I won't necessarilly try and pick the very bottom - when it looks somewhat reasonable by historical standards I will buy in, and once I am in I am going to leave it alone and not be so obsessed by opportunity cost.

At best, you'll have a PPOR. Probably even a good one, because you can justify it in terms of the intangibles like you're going to be living in it, etc. You're never going to buy an IP because you're always going to think there is more downside.

Sure, buying some international shares may make sense. But how are you going to get around the fact that the world is basically predicated on money that has no real value? I don't worry about this because I recognise the human need to believe in the system. You'll always question when it's all going to collapse like the house of cards it is.
Alex
 
Hi LA,

I agree. If you read my first post i said "if we do have a 40% across the board fall in property, that to me signals very bad times .. very high unemployment, weak economic growth, low profits, drop in consumer spending etc etc .. chances are you (and i) may not even have a job in such a economic climate.. "

Also note in the next post i stated it was a "case by case scenarios" and gave cases where property prices have dropped by 40%. I agree we wont see a drop of 40% for australia-wide median.

I don't believe there will ever be a 40% drop in property values. There is no "if" about it. At least not to the type of properties we own. I agree; it's a case by case deal.

The media will always generalise and they always target the sexy suburbs, or the "speculative" IP purchases for the reports as we've discussed; primarily the O.T.P apartments in the cities that seem so sexy to the unwary.

As for jobs; I don't have one right now, haven't had one for over 2 years now, so I'm not worried about losing mine. The wife is a nurse, so her job is armageddon proof, and we can live easily off just her income.

But I know that life happens, so we have a very conservative LVR of 58%, and it's not going up much anytime soon.

This, to me, is the best hedge against any life disaster that comes your way, other than buying the type of properties that will always be what people can afford to buy and rent, in places where they need and want to live.
 
I agree we wont see a drop of 40% for australia-wide median.
We just had a 100% increase in the median over only 5 years (i think? ABS stats). So if we have a 40% drop from current levels then that leaves us still 20% higher than 5 years ago. This would still be an increase in real terms over the last 5 years. So it is not as ridiculous as people think.

I find it amazing that people use history as their guide to reassure themselves that it won't happen yet completely ignore the fact that the recent rise was also unprecedented.
 
Doesn't really matter to you, does it, YM? You're still not going to buy. I mean, if the market tanks 40%, a whole generation is going to be turned off property and the horror stories will last another generation. You're going to use that as an excuse to not buy investment property. After all, why buy it when there's no hope of capital gains?
Alex
 
Doesn't really matter to you, does it, YM? You're still not going to buy. I mean, if the market tanks 40%, a whole generation is going to be turned off property and the horror stories will last another generation. You're going to use that as an excuse to not buy investment property. After all, why buy it when there's no hope of capital gains?
Alex
You are normally so good at reading me but you missed it this time. If it tanked 40% I would buy. I'd go search out my old apartment and buy it back and claim a short sale success ... :)
 
You are normally so good at reading me but you missed it this time. If it tanked 40% I would buy. I'd go search out my old apartment and buy it back and claim a short sale success ... :)

Actually I'm still reading you quite well. This is the exception that proves the rule. If it has to get THAT bad for you to buy, you're not going to buy.
Alex
 
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