What next? US dollar crash..??

[kum yin lau]

Hi, thanks for the illuminating points of view. Don't know if my question is naive but it might help me form an opinion & take a stand.

What is China going to do about the USD bonds & treasuries & whatnots that she has accumulated? Or Japan or any other country that hold large amounts of USD bonds?

Surely they have a vested interest not to let USD collapse?

Ky

 

[Sunfish]

If you have been to Finland and seen the lines of hundreds of semi trailers loaded with new BMWs etc waiting to cross the Russian border you will know there is a hell of a lot of world trade that goes by lorry.

I'm trying to remember what I read about this. Could these all be stolen cars?

 

[joe jo jo]

Hi all,

not sure if this has been mentioned, but I beleive Peter Schiff has gone over this one before. Check out his web if you get a chance.

http://www.europac.net/

it might be in there. Funny guy to watch on TV too. I dont have time to find / paste etc.

Cheers.

 

[kum yin lau]

Hi Joe, thanks for the articles. Illuminating. Time to hoard something of some description, if possible yuan.

Interestingly enough, back in 2003, I suggested to my Chinese tutor [I was running a school overseas] that she should stock up on yuan. Being a controlled currency, it was too hard for the rest of us to buy.

Maybe the gold buffs are right. Silver too.

Another tidbit I learned today is that physical gold is in scarce supply. My nephew could only buy gold certs. Was told there's a long waiting list. his wife checked out the US supplier on the internet & was told kangaroo is out of stock [she bought some 10g Perth mint] and maple is also out of stock.

It's 713 per oz now?

Speculation sure makes life interesting.

KY

 

[Ausprop]

it is very difficult to see why the USD won't crash

 

[willair]

Ever tried to carry a 100kg bag of rice? Hard to run with it, aim and shoot at the same time

No not yet, but i don't intend to be walking anywhere..willair..

 

[Sunfish]

Kum, you are well informed.

It is retail packages of Au/Ag that are hard to get. I was buying '66 Aussie 50c around $3 on ebay a little while ago. No longer. My reading suggests over 100% premium now and 50% premium over spot for eagles, maple leafs and small bars.

Your comments on the Yuan are interesting too. Isn't the Yuan a controlled, domestic currency, out of reach to us white-eyes? The renminB is the international currency, denominated in yuan, but I still doubt I can do a Fx trade in it.

There is no easy way to have a bet on China.

 

[Ausprop]

There is no easy way to have a bet on China.

Chinese antiques?

 

[Sunfish]

Pssst! Wanna buy a terracotta warrior?

 

[boomtown]

Your comments on the Yuan are interesting too. Isn't the Yuan a controlled, domestic currency, out of reach to us white-eyes? The renminB is the international currency, denominated in yuan, but I still doubt I can do a Fx trade in it.

There is no easy way to have a bet on China.

RMB and yuan are the same thing. There is no special money for laowai (foreign devils) anymore - they gave that up in the 1980s I think.

Im holding a 100 yuan note in my hand. Zhongguo Renmin Yinhang (whatever that means).

Just fly to Shanghai and open a bank account. Easy enough to do. And probably one of the safest places in the world to hide money. Its not like they blab to everyone like the Swiss.

 

[Sunfish]

There is no special money for laowai (foreign devils) anymore - they gave that up in the 1980s I think.

I claim no expertise.

 

[MichaelW]

Reading Gold Eagle, Michael. Are you a closet gold bug?

You know I am!

I've got a couple of Perth Mint 1oz coins and a kg of 9999 all in hard bullion buried in my bunker out the back like Willair's in case of emergency. I've got a 3.03 and a double barrel shotgun too, but could really do with a semi-automatic like an SLR or AK47. I'd love a GPMG M60 or equivelant, and claymores are hard to come by too. I had no idea it was so hard to set yourself up properly!

Cheers,
Michael

 

[aussierogue]

Baltic dry index.

Boomtown - Comparing the significance of a seafreight index with lorry transport is a big call. Let me explain why the BDI is important. The BDI amongst other things represents sentiment within the bulk shipping industry which is derived from the commodity industry.

Extrapolating a little bit. A bulk carrier is worth 100 million and a lorry is worth 20k. If a bulk carrier sales price drops from 100 million to 30 million in the space of 2 months (current market conditions) this has far greater relative significance than how busy a van is in Finland. Shipowners around the world are on the brink of colapse. Values have plummeted, daily prices have plummeted (BDI), and therefore banks are staring at unrealised losses of billion and billions of dollars. No credit means the chance of recovery is small. Banks cant even open letters of credit between eachother.

All this is represented in the BDI which has dropped rom 11,500 to 800 in 4 months. Maybe this explains why the people in the know keep shorting equities and the like. Its not because of someone counting trucks in Finland.

Cheers
Aussie

 

[aussierogue]

Bdi

Link from wikipedia

Why economists and stock markets read it
Because it provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea," according to The Baltic, "... it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade -- devoid of political and other agenda concerns."[3]

Other leading economic indicators — which serve as the foundation of important political and economic decisions - are often massaged to serve narrow interests, and subjected to adjustments or revisions. Payroll or employment numbers are often estimates; consumer confidence appears to measure nothing more than sentiment, often with no link to actual consumer behavior; Gross national product figures are consistently revised, etc. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content," says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at TheStreet.com. "People don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move."[4]

 

[GreatPig]

There is no special money for laowai (foreign devils) anymore - they gave that up in the 1980s I think.

Yes, in the mid-late 80s.

Zhongguo Renmin Yinhang (whatever that means)

People's Bank of China.

I've attached a couple of samples of the old foreign exchange certificates that foreigners used to get.

GP

 

[Sunfish]

So are the terms "Yuan" and "renminbi" inter-changeable now, GP?

 

[GreatPig]

Well technically "yuan" is the currency denomination (like "dollar"), whereas "renminbi" essentially means "the people's money" and refers to the Chinese currency in general. So if you're referring to Chinese currency as a whole, use "renminbi", but if you're talking about the price or value of something, use "yuan".

For example, you can say something costs 10 yuan, but not 10 renminbi. However, in the same way that you can talk about "the dollar", you can also talk about "the yuan" (in English at least - not sure about in Chinese) as an alternative to "renminbi". I think that comes from habit with other currencies, which don't generally have a separate word for the currency in general.

That's my understanding anyway. I'm no expert either.

GP

 

[Sunfish]

That helps GP, thanks.

Now what was the renminA? Only joking.

 

[GreatPig]

Now what was the renminA?

The people's 'A' I guess .

"renmin" means "the people".

GP

 

[spark]

For example, you can say something costs 10 yuan, but not 10 renminbi.

I don't speak Chinese, but on both trade fairs and in shops they verbally use the Yuan currency abbreviation "RMB", not "Yuan" or "Renminbi" - *it costs ten ar am bi*