What next? US dollar crash..??

[GreatPig]

they verbally use the Yuan currency abbreviation "RMB", not "Yuan" or "Renminbi"

Maybe in English for foreigners. I've heard them say "dollars" in English too (still meaning yuan).

In Mandarin they don't normally say "yuan" for prices either. There's another word "kuai" that gets used. Similarly, they don't say "jiao" for one tenth of a yuan, instead saying "mao". So a price of 1.80 (1 yuan, 8 jiao) would be spoken as "yi kuai ba mao" (yi = one, ba = eight), or just "yi kuai ba".

One hundredth of a yuan is one "fen", which is what they say in Mandarin as well. However, I don't know how much that's used any more. I don't remember seeing any prices that weren't whole multiples of one jiao last time I was there. The first time I was there, in 1982, they had light aluminium (or similar) coins for 1, 2 & 5 fen, but it was still possible to get notes of those denominations. The 1 & 2 fen notes weren't common even then though, and I had to sweet-talk someone into giving me one of each.

Attached are the one fen note and the three coins mentioned above. I thought the one fen note might be worth something these days, but found a website recently where you could buy all these old notes and this one is still worth next-to-nothing.

Cheers,
GP

 

[Aaron Sice]

so it's like saying something costs "10 money", instead of "10 dollars"? both nouns are the same thing but used differently...?

 

[WinstonWolfe]

interesting original question TC. I have been asking myself the same for a few months. I take the view of Peter Schiff, Barry Ritholz, and the Financial Sense Newshour crew....and that is eventually the USD has to devalue significantly. There's just not enough productivity earnings or savings generated in the USA to cover the mounting debt the Fed is generating.

My main interest though is in what will happen to the AUD when the USD weakens off. This is important to me because I am building my exposure to gold significantly which is priced in USD.

Nevertheless, after the G20's proclamation of every country revving up the printing presses to get the consumer to spend their way out of debt and borrow to buy overpriced assets, I am even more bullish gold.

 

[Ausprop]

I think the imminent collapse of the USD seems to be the elephant in the room - I hear a lot of specialists go into discussion about this but there isn't much mainstream chat about it

 

[keithj]

I think the imminent collapse of the USD seems to be the elephant in the room - I hear a lot of specialists go into discussion about this but there isn't much mainstream chat about it

So which currencies AREN'T likely to collapse ? RMB? Yen?

 

[WinstonWolfe]

I think the imminent collapse of the USD seems to be the elephant in the room - I hear a lot of specialists go into discussion about this but there isn't much mainstream chat about it

For all intents and purposes, I've stopped reading the mainstream. The reporters just don't have the education to ask pertinent questions, and when you do get a Marc Faber make a very insightful comment, they often talk right over him, or move onto something less sobering.

Apart from that, the mainstream work within limited boundaries. They have a duty of care to only push the downside so much. Making a stronger case for the negative would create a self fulfilling prophecy.

On one of the sunday morning programs yesterday, some guy was saying everytime Rudd plays on about the tough times ahead, retail traders notice a drop in sales.

And ask any REA what happened after Steve Keen's appearance on 33 Minutes.

 

[Ausprop]

So which currencies AREN'T likely to collapse ? RMB? Yen?

commodites based currencies, BRIC. Euro would benefit from oil being traded in it?

Obvious one at risk would have to be sterling, bu tI am just considering the link with euros.

 

[Ausprop]

commodites based currencies, BRIC. Euro would benefit from oil being traded in it?

Obvious one at risk would have to be sterling, bu tI am just considering the link with euros.

could anyone see a more obvious currency to trade oil in? Euro just seems to be the wrong pick. not saying logic has much to do with it but other than being a diverse currency its connection with oil seems a bit remote. could they just trade it on an basket of currencies or something? or gold

 

[WinstonWolfe]

commodites based currencies, BRIC. Euro would benefit from oil being traded in it?

Obvious one at risk would have to be sterling, bu tI am just considering the link with euros.

BRICs are going to get hammered cos they are all indebted to the eyeballs and rely on exports to Europe and USA.

Europe is going into recession. Germany the strongest of the Euros went in last week.

I guess eventually chf and yen. Though everything is taking a caning at the moment.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Oil is getting hammered at the moment too cos eveyrone expects demand to drop.

I hold oil stocks and have lost a lot on them, but regained it by day trading US oil stocks. I think eventually though, oil will strengthen as it and gold are traditional flights to safety in recessions.

 

[boz]

BRICs are going to get hammered cos they are all indebted to the eyeballs and rely on exports to Europe and USA.

Europe is going into recession. Germany the strongest of the Euros went in last week.

I guess eventually chf and yen. Though everything is taking a caning at the moment.

Japan will go into recession as well, Switzerland sconomy is very much linked to the EU and will follow the EU (the difference is that you get less earning on Swisss bonds and holdings then Germans or EU).
I am betting on the Euro for the long term and for most of my savings. I like Canada before Australia because of their trade surplus and not dependent on foreign funding like Australia. My gold holding are through gold mining shares, I just increase the holding on these friday and thinking to hedge with shorts on the gold spot price.
In any case the question which is the best currency is a 1 tril$ plus question?

 

[boz]

Japan will go into recession as well, Switzerland sconomy is very much linked to the EU and will follow the EU (the difference is that you get less earning on Swisss bonds and holdings then Germans or EU).
I am betting on the Euro for the long term and for most of my savings. I like Canada before Australia because of their trade surplus and not dependent on foreign funding like Australia. My gold holding are through gold mining shares, I just increase the holding on these friday and thinking to hedge with shorts on the gold spot price.
In any case the question which is the best currency is a 1 tril$ plus question?

Actually since a couple of hours ago Japan is officially in recession with a growth of -0.1% for the quarter, previous quarter was revised to -0.9% (from -0.6%). It is the first recession in Japan in the last 7 years.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

good insights Boz. Agree that Canada is better than AUD in many respects, though they rely heavily on US trade for that surplus, so what woudl happen to CAN if USD dives?

 

[Sunfish]

The loonie isn't doing much better than the pacific peso ATM because the cost of production from the Alberta tar sands is around US$85/bl and natural gas, another big export over the border, has dropped heavily, with oil.

Long term though they in an enviable position to survive the storm.

 

[boz]

good insights Boz. Agree that Canada is better than AUD in many respects, though they rely heavily on US trade for that surplus, so what woudl happen to CAN if USD dives?

Yes, that is the risk and for sure Canada will feel the effect of US slowdown, probably Markets are pricing that in already, I think at 1.24 (against US$) is a good buy of CAN$ in the long term. Like Australia Canada will benefit from any bottoming of commodities and rising gold prices. I am not that keen to buy CAN bond as you'll get somewhat only 3.7% . In Euorpe I'll get some banks bond at around 5% for around 1 year residual life.

 

[topcropper]

could anyone see a more obvious currency to trade oil in? :

What about grain..??

Some frightening things happening in agriculture right now.


http://www.insidefutures.com/articl...Going Long In The Midst of Panic Selling.html


........"The wave of selling fear and forced liquidation has sent grain prices along with everything else plunging to impressive lows. Grains prices as measured by the DJ-AIG sub index are now over 50% off their highs from just a few months ago.

Thanks to the global credit crisis, farmers around the world are having trouble getting the credit they need for next year’s crop. They do not have the financing they need to for the land, fuel, equipment, fertilizer and labor. Furthermore, input costs are still relatively high. Farmers need grain prices to come up just to break even. Marino Colpo, a large soybean producer in Brazil said that they require at least $10.50 soybeans to break even. He also said that production in Brazil is likely to drop this coming season because farmers are unwilling to plant at a loss. Thanks to the plunging grain prices induced by the credit crisis, we will see farmers around the world cutting back on production. This is at a time when global grain inventories are already near historic lows. William Doyle, president of Potash says that even with slowing demand growth they will need to produce record crops just to maintain adequate stocks.

Global grain inventories will get tighter as farmers are unable and unwilling to produce grains at a loss. This could eventually send grain prices higher and switch the attention of the mainstream media from the credit crisis to the food crisis and famine".........



See ya's.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

SF or others, I am looking for Aussie silver stocks, now that MMN self destructed.

Any suggestions appreciated.

 

[Sunfish]

SF or others, I am looking for Aussie silver stocks, now that MMN self destructed.

Any suggestions appreciated.

CXC should have been OK but it is dual listed in the US where I'm afraid it has become a sex-slave of the funds and other nefarious characters. So much so that it may fail.

I'm thinking long-dated futures with low gearing is about all we have left.

 

[LynnH]

LOL!!! You have a 'unique' way of describing certain shares, Sunfish!

Cheers
LynnH

 

[GreatPig]

so it's like saying something costs "10 money", instead of "10 dollars"?

You mean using RMB or renminbi? Essentially yes, renminbi means the people's money and is not a particular denomination of the currency.

The closest I can think of with other currencies is where the USD is sometimes called the greenback. You can say the greenback is worth such-and-such, but you wouldn't say you bought something for 10 greenbacks.

GP