I agree with the above mentality, but this is not the same scenario that you were talking about here:
What to invest in?
- Thread starter Invest
- Start date
I agree with the above mentality, but this is not the same scenario that you were talking about here:
I don't like it and would never do it, but you're welcome. 
Note of warning: Don't use leverage. That makes it like doubling up at the casino. You and Storm Financial both seem to believe that bad things never happen to good people, positive thinkers or whatever.
We had a whiff of GFC II last night. Obama has nothing left to toss into the fire this time around.
Note of warning: Don't use leverage. That makes it like doubling up at the casino. You and Storm Financial both seem to believe that bad things never happen to good people, positive thinkers or whatever.
We had a whiff of GFC II last night. Obama has nothing left to toss into the fire this time around.
Good for you RC. You'd be looking OK now after selling those houses?
The plunging aussie dollar is good for the three and a half thousand tonnes of grain I have to sell yet too.
I reckon with whats going on I wouldn't want to be in too much debt right now. I don't know whats going to happen, but I rather play it safe.
See ya's.
Looks like GFC II might be on. Oh dear!
Kevs on morning news saying he will continue the stimulous for as long as it takes. That means propping up housing and retail spending. I wonder how long it can all be propped up? There will be some government debt by the time this is all over.
See ya's.
I think that you might be half right Topcropper. My slightly more bearish take is that the GFC was postponed by shifting liabilities off the banks and onto the governments.
And the Dow dropped below 10,000 earlier today. The rumour is that Proctor and Gamble buggered up, and lost around $500 million.
Ouch.
But what I really don't get is why the financial markets seem OK with the US being not that far off Greece, whereas the EU is getting trashed because one corner is in trouble, and a couple more look shaky.
And the Dow dropped below 10,000 earlier today. The rumour is that Proctor and Gamble buggered up, and lost around $500 million.
Ouch.
But what I really don't get is why the financial markets seem OK with the US being not that far off Greece, whereas the EU is getting trashed because one corner is in trouble, and a couple more look shaky.
There is an interview with the boss of the NYSE on CNN Money where he nearly explains this.
I've been talking gold and silver for a long time now and think that last night was a harbinger of what's to come sometime this year or next.
Hi all,
Graemsay,
There is one fundamental difference between Greece and the US. The Greeks owe the debt in Euro and probably $US, they do not have the ability to come by more of them easily.
The US debt is primarily in $US, hence they can just ramp up the printing presses to pay it off if absolutely necessary.
The EU itself looks like it has to have major changes, either kick out those not playing by the rules, or countries like Germany pulling out. Either scenario has huge ramifications for individual Countries, with the massive uncertainty upsetting markets.
bye
Graemsay,
There is one fundamental difference between Greece and the US. The Greeks owe the debt in Euro and probably $US, they do not have the ability to come by more of them easily.
The US debt is primarily in $US, hence they can just ramp up the printing presses to pay it off if absolutely necessary.
The EU itself looks like it has to have major changes, either kick out those not playing by the rules, or countries like Germany pulling out. Either scenario has huge ramifications for individual Countries, with the massive uncertainty upsetting markets.
bye
So what do you plan to do today? I can assure you I'm not buying, same as I haven't bought all week.
Falling knives getting sharper
Sitting on hands. Waiting for things to unfold. If this is merely a pull back, then I await for some confirmation of direction.
No one picks the dead bottom or the exact top. Along your lines of buy an uprising share and sell a falling share (according to each person's own stop loss strategy/criteria), buying now and averaging down requires the purchaser to be wearing steel mesh gloves in case those knives continue their acceleration and descent.
My feeling (only a hunch) is that we will see greater volatility this year and this may lend to channel trading as the market goes sideways with it's ups (on sentiment that all is rosy now) and the downs (banks, currency, US, euro nations and other sundry gloom news).
Still sitting and watching.....and learning about my own investment/trading psychology and confidence.
Interesting times, for sure.
Sitting on hands. Waiting for things to unfold. If this is merely a pull back, then I await for some confirmation of direction.
No one picks the dead bottom or the exact top. Along your lines of buy an uprising share and sell a falling share (according to each person's own stop loss strategy/criteria), buying now and averaging down requires the purchaser to be wearing steel mesh gloves in case those knives continue their acceleration and descent.
My feeling (only a hunch) is that we will see greater volatility this year and this may lend to channel trading as the market goes sideways with it's ups (on sentiment that all is rosy now) and the downs (banks, currency, US, euro nations and other sundry gloom news).
Still sitting and watching.....and learning about my own investment/trading psychology and confidence.
Interesting times, for sure.
I bought today, and yesterday and the day before.
But not resources, nor the big banks.
I have my intrinsic value estimates and THEY HAVENT CHANGED in the last few days.
With Mr market being distracted by issues not relevant to me and going into panick mode i have been able to acquire shares decent discounts to their intrinsic values.
$200k of stocks so far bought this week.
If markets go down somemore next week i will continue to buy.
Note how many DC bounces there were here:
A couple were quite impressive. I imagine that there were many back then who thought at each reversal "Back to the good days!"
I don't want to pick any bottoms, I want to survive.
I wasn't happy with the first chart. I thought it was more dramatic than that.Let's add another one with a longer time axis, shall we?
A couple were quite impressive. I imagine that there were many back then who thought at each reversal "Back to the good days!"
I don't want to pick any bottoms, I want to survive.
I wasn't happy with the first chart. I thought it was more dramatic than that.Let's add another one with a longer time axis, shall we?
Last edited:
out of curiosity Sunfish, what were the 10years before the start of your graph.
ie 1920-1930, did it show a big spike upwards?
what about 2000-2010: did it show a likewise big spike upwards?
ie 1920-1930, did it show a big spike upwards?
what about 2000-2010: did it show a likewise big spike upwards?
All I'm saying is that simply buying because the price is cheaper than last week is a recipe for a disaster. The Great Depression destroyed many richer, better connected people than you. You may as well go to the casino and double up. We all know that the odds will eventually betray you.
If you stick with your intrinsic value model you will be wiped out before too long. That doesn't concern me. Just don't try for converts to take others down with you.
This bit applies to everyone: You can throw out all your models and stats. We are entering uncharted waters. The survivors will be smartest INDIVIDUALS.
If you stick with your intrinsic value model you will be wiped out before too long. That doesn't concern me. Just don't try for converts to take others down with you.
This bit applies to everyone: You can throw out all your models and stats. We are entering uncharted waters. The survivors will be smartest INDIVIDUALS.
Hi, last March we're discussing the dead cat.
13 months of increase from 3200 to >5000 [well | remember cos I was waiting for 2900 but just in case, I bought round about 3200 to 3300]
Hardly a dead cat by any definition.
But I'll agree with SF, falling knives are so no fun but I'll also say I've been there before.
Going by nothing but guts & attitude, I'd actually transferred more cash into the share acct, thinking I might buy some of the biggies like BHP or RIO..
As before, my instinctive action is the same as Intrinsic Value's though on a smaller scale.
But SF, your POV really challenge me to think some more!
KY
13 months of increase from 3200 to >5000 [well | remember cos I was waiting for 2900 but just in case, I bought round about 3200 to 3300]
Hardly a dead cat by any definition.
But I'll agree with SF, falling knives are so no fun but I'll also say I've been there before.
Going by nothing but guts & attitude, I'd actually transferred more cash into the share acct, thinking I might buy some of the biggies like BHP or RIO..
As before, my instinctive action is the same as Intrinsic Value's though on a smaller scale.
But SF, your POV really challenge me to think some more!
KY
Lau, I am infamous as a doom 'n gloomer here but I stand by my record.
NEVER have I pretended to know WHEN things would happen but eventually they have. Look at the first of the charts and you will see a four month period where the DOW rose 25% and there were numerous other rallies. Anyone who simply bought the dips would be bankrupt before the 10 years of misery (second chart) was over.
I personally, have tipped in no new money in the last year because I believe we are in for many more years of misery. This, of course, is simply personal opinion and I do not expect anyone to heed me. All I'm suggesting is to weigh up the potential rewards vs the potential risks. Last night's 1,000 pt fall on the DOW wasn't "fat fingers". They happen all the time and don't normally cause a crash. The explanation was a simple ploy not to startle the sheep.
If you have some time, search on the infamous quotes by the Wall St suits aimed to instill confidence in the sheeple so they would have someone to sell to. They may have believed what they said but they were constantly wrong. I don't believe platitudes such as "Property doubles every seven years", some doesn't. "You don't make a loss until you sell" is highly dangerous. "Buying opportunity" is another fraud.
Every day must be assessed on it's own merits. Yesterday is history. To buy the dips believing stocks always bounce back is just lazy and one day will be proven to be wrong. Bankruptcy is not an option for me.
Nothing personal here, I like your posts and applaud your success.
NEVER have I pretended to know WHEN things would happen but eventually they have. Look at the first of the charts and you will see a four month period where the DOW rose 25% and there were numerous other rallies. Anyone who simply bought the dips would be bankrupt before the 10 years of misery (second chart) was over.
I personally, have tipped in no new money in the last year because I believe we are in for many more years of misery. This, of course, is simply personal opinion and I do not expect anyone to heed me. All I'm suggesting is to weigh up the potential rewards vs the potential risks. Last night's 1,000 pt fall on the DOW wasn't "fat fingers". They happen all the time and don't normally cause a crash. The explanation was a simple ploy not to startle the sheep.
If you have some time, search on the infamous quotes by the Wall St suits aimed to instill confidence in the sheeple so they would have someone to sell to. They may have believed what they said but they were constantly wrong. I don't believe platitudes such as "Property doubles every seven years", some doesn't. "You don't make a loss until you sell" is highly dangerous. "Buying opportunity" is another fraud.
Every day must be assessed on it's own merits. Yesterday is history. To buy the dips believing stocks always bounce back is just lazy and one day will be proven to be wrong. Bankruptcy is not an option for me.
Nothing personal here, I like your posts and applaud your success.
I hear the warning SF.
My (uneducated) head tells me though, that if you can be brave and buy the cheaper shares of reputable and solid companies, with good solid ongoing business, lower LVR and substantial assets - i.e they ain't going anywhere other than to lose a bit of value - then surely it would be a good time to seriously look at these companies?
Like, for example; an NAB or something of that ilk, where they are recording record half-yearly profits.
A company like this, even though it may take a big hit in a herd panic such as we saw today, is still a bloody strong company.
Looks like I've got to put it in capitals: THE WORLD IS TEETERING ON THE BRINK OF THE GREATER DEPRESSION. And you want to tell me that good companies will ALWAYS bounce back, and quick.
That is rubbish. The Dow is always cutting fallen stars and promoting the latest skyrocket (Google?). Remember that the DOW is only 30 stocks so it would be guaranteed that they will all bounce back isn't it? Check out RCA. NAB will be bigger and better next year won't it? Just how big can four banks grow in a country the size of Oz?
I just did a quick search of The NIfty Fifty. This what Wiki said:
Nifty Fifty was an informal term used to refer to 50 popular large cap stocks on the New York Stock Exchange in the 1960s and 1970s that were widely regarded as solid buy and hold growth stocks.
The fifty are credited with propelling the bull market of the early 1970s. Most are still solid performers, although a few are now defunct or otherwise worthless.
Most are still solid performers,?I think Wiki is a little generous. There are still a couple of v good companies but most are hard to remember. Here's the list:
NYSE Nifty Fifty constituents
American Express
American Home Products
AMP Inc.
Anheuser-Busch
Avon Products
Baxter International
Black & Decker
Bristol-Myers
Burroughs Corporation
American Hospital Supply Corp.
Chesebrough-Ponds
The Coca-Cola Company
Digital Equipment Corporation
Dow Chemical
Eastman Kodak
Eli Lilly and Company
Emery Air Freight
First National City Bank
General Electric
Gillette
Halliburton
Heublein Brewing Company
IBM
International Flavors and Fragrances
International Telephone and Telegraph
J.C. Penney
Johnson & Johnson
Louisiana Land and Exploration
Lubrizol
Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing (3M)
McDonald's
Merck & Co.
MGIC Investment Corporation
PepsiCo
Pfizer
Philip Morris Cos.
Polaroid
Procter & Gamble
Revlon
Schering Plough
Joe Schlitz Brewing
Schlumberger
Sears, Roebuck and Company
Simplicity Pattern
Squibb
S.S. Kresge
Texas Instruments
Upjohn
The Walt Disney Company
Xerox
I think they may have shrunk to The Nifty Ten. If you have shares you must constantly pull weeds. Trusting generalizations won't cut it.
That is rubbish. The Dow is always cutting fallen stars and promoting the latest skyrocket (Google?). Remember that the DOW is only 30 stocks so it would be guaranteed that they will all bounce back isn't it? Check out RCA. NAB will be bigger and better next year won't it? Just how big can four banks grow in a country the size of Oz?
I just did a quick search of The NIfty Fifty. This what Wiki said:
Nifty Fifty was an informal term used to refer to 50 popular large cap stocks on the New York Stock Exchange in the 1960s and 1970s that were widely regarded as solid buy and hold growth stocks.
The fifty are credited with propelling the bull market of the early 1970s. Most are still solid performers, although a few are now defunct or otherwise worthless.
Most are still solid performers,?I think Wiki is a little generous. There are still a couple of v good companies but most are hard to remember. Here's the list:
NYSE Nifty Fifty constituents
American Express
American Home Products
AMP Inc.
Anheuser-Busch
Avon Products
Baxter International
Black & Decker
Bristol-Myers
Burroughs Corporation
American Hospital Supply Corp.
Chesebrough-Ponds
The Coca-Cola Company
Digital Equipment Corporation
Dow Chemical
Eastman Kodak
Eli Lilly and Company
Emery Air Freight
First National City Bank
General Electric
Gillette
Halliburton
Heublein Brewing Company
IBM
International Flavors and Fragrances
International Telephone and Telegraph
J.C. Penney
Johnson & Johnson
Louisiana Land and Exploration
Lubrizol
Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing (3M)
McDonald's
Merck & Co.
MGIC Investment Corporation
PepsiCo
Pfizer
Philip Morris Cos.
Polaroid
Procter & Gamble
Revlon
Schering Plough
Joe Schlitz Brewing
Schlumberger
Sears, Roebuck and Company
Simplicity Pattern
Squibb
S.S. Kresge
Texas Instruments
Upjohn
The Walt Disney Company
Xerox
I think they may have shrunk to The Nifty Ten. If you have shares you must constantly pull weeds. Trusting generalizations won't cut it.
Wow - is that in real dollars or are you leveraged? You are a brave soul - I completely chickened out and am watching and waiting yet again.
Looks like ive got to put it in capitals: THE WORLD IS LESS AT RISK OF SUFFERING A GREAT DEPRESSION NOW THAN IN THE BLEAK DAYS OF LATE 2008
And what caused the substandard return in the nifty 50 for the next 10 years post the 1070's.
IT WASNT THE COMPANIES, they generally performed quite well.
IT WAS THAT THE COMPANIES PERFORMANCE COULD NOT MATCH THE EXPECTATIONS AS EXPRESSED BY THE SHARE PRICES AT THE TIME.
ie SHARE PRICES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE INTRINSIC VALUE.
Anybody who actually bothered to research the companies could have known this.
But plenty of people were justifying investments based on price movements rather than value movements.
