What to invest in?

[Edmond Dantes]

I've done pretty well with shares over the years, but for me it's more about observing what's going on around you in everyday life than numbers on a balance sheet.

So true.

Bought AAPL as well, but my decisions are based on what I see around: people love IPods, macs, almost everything that's got the apple sign.

Bought V (Visa) as well, just after the IPO. Reason? simple: everyone's got a visa card and the trend is now people use it more.

Bought Google, just after the IPO. Everyone loves Google.

Ebay as well, coz at the moment paypal and skype were unique (still they are).

Made many mistakes as well

I'm in for the long term, but I guess you guys must be making huge profits after super analizing the charts.

 

[Amadio]

Wow!!. That must have done alright then?

It has, but would have been better if I'd kept it instead of traded it over many times. Took me 20 years to learn what I know now - sigh.

Having not seen the movie I never knew that about Forrest Gump - hilarious.

 

[Amadio]

Here's one I held once but didn't keep 'til payday:

Ouch.

Opposite of my Zinifex. Bought for peanuts, climbed to $20 - was watching the US market so much I forgot about my aussie stuff - they morphed into OZ and lo! and behold, sank to 69c or some such fleabite. I never get emotional with stocks, but I have to admit staring at the screen thinking - whoops, someone's input some wrong data here.

 

[Sunfish]

Ouch.

Opposite of my Zinifex.

Yeah I've got some Oz too. But don't be discouraged.

You've got to kiss a lot of frogs to find the princess. Just don't fall in love on the way.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

Still possible today. But now, like then, you are not going to find out about them in the MSN. That's why IV's approach is of no interest to me.

"Multi-baggers" are quite common still. OK they have been harder to find in the last few years but they are still there.

whats the MSN

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

I'm in for the long term, but I guess you guys must be making huge profits after super analizing the charts.

i barely look at the charts.
Charts show were things have been, i am interested in where things will go.

hehe comment is going to set of a barnstorm

 

[Sunfish]

whats the MSN

A typo. Should have been Main Stream Media.

 

[Sunfish]

i am interested in where things will go.

Got a winner for Saturday?

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

IV,

i barely look at the charts.
Charts show were things have been, i am interested in where things will go.

Exactly the same argument applies to company reports, in the fundamental approach.

History is important in outlining the future, but even then it is extremely difficult to 'forecast', just look at the treasury forecasts from last years budget as an example, way out.

bye

 

[Edmond Dantes]

i barely look at the charts.
Charts show were things have been, i am interested in where things will go.

hehe comment is going to set of a barnstorm

You've dropped the bomb

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

Hi all,

IV,


Exactly the same argument applies to company reports, in the fundamental approach.

History is important in outlining the future, but even then it is extremely difficult to 'forecast', just look at the treasury forecasts from last years budget as an example, way out.

bye

the ability to forecast will be partially determined by the durability of the company. The lower the durability the harder it is to forecast.

 

[topcropper]

History is important in outlining the future, but even then it is extremely difficult to 'forecast', just look at the treasury forecasts from last years budget as an example, way out.

bye

The older I get the more I realise I don't know. Then at 90 you really don't know anything cause you've forgotten the lot.

It was great being 17 and knowing it all.


See ya's.

 

[Sunfish]

Which of these three would you spend time on finding their "intrinsic value"?

This one

this one

or this one

I would look at the third first, and not because it's Microsoft, but because it is interesting. Then the first but I would feel late to the party but never think of the second because it isn't going anywhere and has low liquidity to boot.

A picture saves a lot of reading.

 

[Ausprop]

a half full type person would say the last one is a bubble waiting to burst? exponential growth can't continue forever

 

[Sunfish]

a half full type person would say the last one is a bubble waiting to burst? exponential growth can't continue forever

Were you referring to RBI or MSFT?

What I find interesting is the notion of bursting bubbles on a property forum.

For what it's worth I don't believe either are bubbles. If that worried me I would have sold RBI under $10.

Edit: You may be right. That's why I'm trying to set up a broker account in Montreal to sell calls on it.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

Which of these three would you spend time on finding their "intrinsic value"?

this one

or this one

I would look at the third first, and not because it's Microsoft, but because it is interesting. Then the first but I would feel late to the party but never think of the second because it isn't going anywhere and has low liquidity to boot.

A picture saves a lot of reading.

i would forget the first one: why its in resources and i have no competency in trying to value resource companies.

Second one is no in australia, i dont have time to spend looking at every company around the world, so i would ignore it as well.

i might consider the third only due to microsofts reputation.
but not now, i have enough companies on my screen that are showing value.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

Which of these three would you spend time on finding their "intrinsic value"?

This one

A picture saves a lot of reading.

now i dont know whether this is a speculative stock that is a favourite amongst day traders.

but imagine for a moment, this was an investment grade company.
Those that did their research, new what their intrinsic value was. Could have got into this stock when it was $10. They wouldnt have been 'waiting for the chart'.

They might have also held for the duration of the climb if they calculated that the intrinsic value was significantly higher than $10.

So where will the biggest gains be made?
those that bought in at $10 or those that are buying now?

 

[Ausprop]

Were you referring to RBI or MSFT?

What I find interesting is the notion of bursting bubbles on a property forum.

For what it's worth I don't believe either are bubbles. If that worried me I would have sold RBI under $10.

Edit: You may be right. That's why I'm trying to set up a broker account in Montreal to sell calls on it.

i was playing devils advocate, referring to MSFT.

i really have no idea, I just think you need to put the charts down and think logically. will MSFT continue to perform like this? probably, for now. when their systems are licensed remotely every joe blow will be forced to have legit software, probably with a hefty annual renewal fee. their grip, for now, is tightening not loosening. this theory fits with the chart, so i would hold them until some other information came to light

edit: i still wouldnt hold them as my best investment is debt reduction and equity creation

 

[Value Emperor]

now i dont know whether this is a speculative stock that is a favourite amongst day traders.

but imagine for a moment, this was an investment grade company.
Those that did their research, new what their intrinsic value was. Could have got into this stock when it was $10. They wouldnt have been 'waiting for the chart'.

They might have also held for the duration of the climb if they calculated that the intrinsic value was significantly higher than $10.

So where will the biggest gains be made?
those that bought in at $10 or those that are buying now?

The expected return of those buying now would be negative going by the chart.
Trend followers will scream in protest at this, but out of every company that showed a similar pattern in the past, most have reversed the trend shortly after.

The allure, (but also the trap) of the sharemarket is that people remember the minority that were able to continue the trend but quickly forget those that reversed, a form of random reinforcement keeping everyone dreaming that they might get the next Fortescue or Microsoft.

So, you would be mad to buy this now, unless you had the ability to value this company reliably and identify that the company can still outperform the obviously bullish forecasts of the current market participants.

 

[Value Emperor]

when their systems are licensed remotely every joe blow will be forced to have legit software, probably with a hefty annual renewal fee. their grip, for now, is tightening not loosening. this theory fits with the chart, so i would hold them until some other information came to light

So you realise this, but the rest of the market hasn't factored it into the price?

For a highly followed stock like this to continue to go up, you need to know something that the rest of the market doesn't, or alternatively make a bet on a current uncertainty that may be holding the price down.