What's gonna stop the Sydney boom?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by ej89, 27th Apr, 2015.

  1. sash

    sash Member

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    Some of the posts on this thread are hilarious....:D

    A quick question how many of the posters have seen 2 fully cycles??? What happened then in Sydney?? ;)
     
  2. en_

    en_ Member

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    Some insights into the previous cycles would be great
     
  3. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    Sudden oversupply (unlikely)

    Sudden interest rate hike (unlikely)

    Sudden depopulation (unlikely)
     
  4. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    Apparently, not even APRA can stop the Sydney boom.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-unlikely-to-fall-on-mortgage-curbs-nab-says

    "Surging home prices in cities including Sydney are unlikely to be affected by the banking regulator’s efforts to curb mortgage lending to investors, according to National Australia Bank Ltd.

    Markets such as Sydney, where house values have risen 40 percent in the past three years, are struggling with undersupply amid “significant” foreign demand, Gavin Slater, the lender’s head of personal banking, said Wednesday.

    “All lenders are responding to the macro-prudential guidelines,” Slater said at a business lunch in the city. “I don’t believe it will have an impact on house prices.”"
     
  5. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    reality (likely)
     
  6. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    LoL obviously your perception of reality is clouded by lthe dearth of quality caffeinated beverages in your global city's cultural heartland.
     
    Last edited: 18th Jun, 2015
  7. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    Hmmm. http://www.news.domain.com.au/domai...suburbs-to-rent-a-room-in-australia-20150617-

    Young people planning to save money by spending a few years living in a Sydney sharehouse are in for a shock.

    In the past five years the average price of renting a room in Sydney has surged by 32 per cent to an all-time high of $275 a week, new data from Flatmates.com.au shows.

    But a room at that price would be a bargain in some inner-city postcodes ? there are now 25 Sydney suburbs where the average cost of renting a room is above $300.
     
  8. JohnHenry

    JohnHenry Mister

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    Yes Unload,

    I agree with you, I've seen this http://tinyurl.com/SydneyOverCrowded issue before and I've lived in that situation before. Luckilly no one closed down the place while I was renting there.

    Somehow, the Fire Dept. and Sydney City council close their ears until something like Bankstown apartment incident http://tinyurl.com/BankstownOvercrowded or worse happening in Sydney CBD.

    I've also seen and heard that some apartment "elite" unit in Sydney like Central Park, Lumiere and World Tower to name a few has been used for prostitutes --> I guess this ones is not so harnful but more appealling for the Land Lord due to the palce kept clean :D
     
  9. willair

    willair xx

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  10. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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  11. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    Can it be considered a black swan event when it's been anticipated and somewhat priced in for many years now (into the equites market at least)? This is not a counter argument but a question as I'm no expert.
     
  12. JohnHenry

    JohnHenry Mister

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    How does it works ?
    a country in Europe default or goes down in rating, then Australia is affected ?
     
  13. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    The entire universe ?

    Gee , I better look at unloading my block on the moon . I was planning on keeping it as a potential DA site .

    I think if my suggestion for dioxygen scrubbers go the go ahead , then the moon would be a good place to dump that noxious waste so a double whammy to moon property prices

    Actually , given Sydney has boomed the most , it's the place I'd expect to hurt the most . There are plenty of people who have made money in Sydney and once it slows , will switch their interest to other places . Many forumites have been doing this for a while to get in ahead of the herd .

    Cliff
     
    Last edited: 18th Jun, 2015
  14. willair

    willair xx

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    Everyone has a different idea on mental-clarity,some investors think they are more unique then all the others standing in the que,big mistake to make when what may happen in a random way thinking you are in control
    becomes the opposite,:)..and by the way iv'e just sold 25%of all the banking equities I hold,while all the public servants are on strike..
     
  15. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    Well we live in an interconnected world. It's going to rattle the global financial markets.

    Our banks source a lot of money for funding their loans, from overseas wholesale markets. That's because internal Australian deposits and savings are massively insufficient to fund Australian loans. Our banks borrow massive amounts of money from overseas so they can lend it to us. Our only hope is that our banks have their robust hedging / risk management in place to ride the wild carnage in the markets. (Some clueless people here think our banks are funded by the RBA. Maybe a little bit, but it's not very material.)

    So there. We're not immune from the World Events because we get our funding from the World.
     
  16. MTR

    MTR Bling Bling

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    Someone posted that NZ tried to tighten lending in an effort to slow down their booming property market but this was not successful, perhaps same scenario for us?

    Will rising unemployment stop this boom?

    Will the debt trap stop the boom, where nothing is making any sense anymore, investors buy property with 3-4% yields, how many of these can you buy/hold??

    Negative market sentiment, media drip feeding stories about the inevitable crash, starts to spook people out, fear sets in and they do nothing.
    More properties start come onto the market and before you know it there is an oversupply... crash.

    One thing for sure when the market does crashe it sort of happens over night, that's my experience, you see things changing, but in the main people ignore this.

    MTR:)
     
  17. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    Trading for speculation is different from trading for fundamentals. Those who switched interest may be regretting it.
     
  18. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Time will tell .

    Those who do nothing may regret it .

    I love this way that some people like to put done what some do as speculation as opposed to fundamentals .

    There is no logical reason why Mt Druitt should have doubled on the basis of fundaments in the last 2-3 years . Does that make the money those people less valuable ?

    What is one persons speculation to another is sound investing ( based on a higher level of knowledge ) .

    Cliff
     
  19. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    Well their prices were cheap to begin with. And as supply is really limited, buyers are not spoilt for choice. Besides, you're assuming that suburb cannot gentrify.
     
  20. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    It had been cheap for a number of years before .

    I know prices moved up because demand outstripped supply , but the demand was mainly driven by investors who were buying on the basis of a change in sentiment. There have been no major changes in the fundamentals out at Mt Druitt .

    If you think Mt Druitt is going to gentrify any time soon , you're wrong . Obviously you don't know the place and the Sydney market as a whole .

    Cliff