What's Kevin up to?

[topcropper]

Kevin Rudd turned out to be a terrible leader. Seems he was a 'control freak'. Wouldn't work as a team, couldn't organise his staff. Had hilarious hissy fits. His party couldn't wait to throw the little nerd out and replace him with Julia. He must realise he won't have anywhere the numbers to regain the big job from Julia.

Has he lost his marbles completely?
Simply planning to retire on their massive family wealth?
Take the whole labor government down as a form of revenge?

Another interesting development, but I think Kevin must know he won't be prime minister any time soon. He blew that once before.

What's going on?


See ya's.

 

[The Fence]

Crossing the floor?

LOL !

 

[Macca]

Crossing the floor?

LOL !

Wouldn't that be spectacular, imagine him resigning from the Labor Party and joining the independents

Nah, he won't do that because it would give Abbott too much power and he hates Abbott.

 

[topcropper]

Wouldn't that be spectacular, imagine him resigning from the Labor Party and joining the independents

Nah, he won't do that because it would give Abbott too much power and he hates Abbott.

I think he hates Julia and Simon Crean and a few of the other 'faceless men' more than he hates Abbott.


See ya's.

 

[wylie]

I reckon he believes he has the numbers to be leader again (obviously there will have been plenty of calls in the lead up to this). I'm assuming he wouldn't move unless he felt sure of himself.

I reckon he'll become leader again and very quickly call an early election. That way, those who don't like the way he was knifed in the back will vote for him, those who don't like Abbott will vote for him and those who don't like what the independents have done will vote for him (I mean his party).

That's my theory .

He'll call an early election before things can turn sour again.

 

[Aaron_C]

I think he hates Julia and Simon Crean and a few of the other 'faceless men' more than he hates Abbott.

Politicians don't actually 'hate' each other just because they are on opposing sides. But I agree that KRudd hates the Union factions, of which Simon Crean in particular is their representative, but ironically they are the ones whose support he needs to return to the leadership.

 

[buzzlightyear]

An early election doesn't suit the ALP or the independents. There would be a strong coalition victory today and they would lose their power. That option is all downside.

As for Rudd, he is a lifetime politician. Everyone thought John Howard was a goner many times, especially earlier on in his career. From Treasurer under Fraser, to ousted leader of the Libs many times (in the 80's) and shunned until January 1995.

But imo, he will do a Keating! Go the banckbench, speak his mind, and wait to the inevitable bad polls that will make the Caucus act. (Of course unless Gillard starts performing - but as demonstrated performance has indicated, this is unlikely).

 

[dan c]

But imo, he will do a Keating! Go the banckbench, speak his mind, and wait to the inevitable bad polls that will make the Caucus act. (Of course unless Gillard starts performing - but as demonstrated performance has indicated, this is unlikely).

That seems like the most likely scenario to me, too. The only thing is, I can't remember Keating and Hawke having this level of animosity? I know they didn't like each other in the end, but I don't remember it getting as personal as this is.

With the extroardinary statement from Swan last night, I don't know how Rudd could sit in the parliament as a Labor Party member.

If I were Rudd, I would retire, force a by-election, and go and live in my Noosa beach house. But I don't think he will do that.

 

[Aaron_C]

That seems like the most likely scenario to me, too. The only thing is, I can't remember Keating and Hawke having this level of animosity? I know they didn't like each other in the end, but I don't remember it getting as personal as this is.

Um that's because Hawke backed out of a deal that he and Keating made at the 1983 election...so he was the snivelling weasel - not Keating.

 

[dan c]

But I agree that KRudd hates the Union factions, of which Simon Crean in particular is their representative, but ironically they are the ones whose support he needs to return to the leadership.

That's the irony here.

At the start, he didn't need the faction leaders, so he ignored them and ****ed them all off. When he started to struggle, the faction bosses weren't there to shore up support. In fact, they were the first to stick the boots in.

Rudd's numbers weren't as bad as Julia's, but the faction bosses support Julia, yet chose to get rid of Rudd. Why? Because Rudd ignored them, removed some of their powers, and booting him out was payback.

 

[dan c]

Um that's because Hawke backed out of a deal that he and Keating made at the 1983 election...so he was the snivelling weasel - not Keating.

I remember the stories around the change. My point was it didn't get as personal as the today's situation.

 

[Deltaberry]

Not sure why he would quit his seat and retire and force a by-election. ALP will win the seat. It'll give the party an open forum to mouth off against him. He will have no more relevance ever again. Even his current backers will no longer back him. He'll become another Latham. Worst advice ever. Retirement is the last thing on his mind - he could've done that a long time ago with a net worth of $100m.

If I was him I'd either run in the Monday ballot (regardless if I have the numbers or not). Go to back bench if I lose, and make a come back later. Or, I'd force an election and take my ALP caucus supporters and vote against the Government, forcing an election and capitulation of the Gillard administration - just as Brown's Labour Party caucus supporters voted against Blair in his last days until the Blair administration couldn't function any more.

Interesting to note Shorten has not said anything yet. The wild card is still unknown. I would offer Shorten Deputy PM and Treasurer and sack Swan.

 

[buzzlightyear]

So given the animosity and contempt that is being shown by Rudd's colleagues against him. ie Rudd deliberately underminned the 2010 election, ongoing destablisation, why would you have this person in your Cabinet?

It is my call, that it's the ALP leadership judgement is flawed to actually have him in a leadership role.

It is interesting that a group of people (maybe not a majority today but at some time was) have been so captured by the cult of personality. ie Rudd and Latham.

 

[dan c]

Not sure why he would quit his seat and retire and force a by-election. ALP will win the seat. It'll give the party an open forum to mouth off against him. He will have no more relevance ever again. Even his current backers will no longer back him. He'll become another Latham. Worst advice ever. Retirement is the last thing on his mind - he could've done that a long time ago with a net worth of $100m.

It wasn't advice.

I'm not so sure they would win the seat if he quit. There would be a huge swing against the ALP.

I don't think he'll retire either, because he thinks he is he saviour of the party. He couldn't go away and remain quiet, I agree.

But if the choice was rotting away on the back bench or waking up in my Noosa beach house, without the stresses of being with people who hated my guts, I'd know what I would choose.

 

[dan c]

So given the animosity and contempt that is being shown by Rudd's colleagues against him. ie Rudd deliberately underminned the 2010 election, ongoing destablisation, why would you have this person in your Cabinet?

Exactly. If this was going on, I'm not sure why Julia didn't sack him earlier. Maybe because of the concerns about minority government? I'm not sure.

The other question is, if Rudd is eventually returned as leader, who will he have in his cabinet? Swan, after his outburst yesterday, would have to go. Crean would have to go. I just heard Kate Ellis on the radio, and she would have to go. Julia would be out, obviously.

Might be just Ruddy and Chris Bowen.

 

[Deltaberry]

It wasn't advice.

I'm not so sure they would win the seat if he quit. There would be a huge swing against the ALP.

I don't think he'll retire either, because he thinks he is he saviour of the party. He couldn't go away and remain quiet, I agree.

But if the choice was rotting away on the back bench or waking up in my Noosa beach house, without the stresses of being with people who hated my guts, I'd know what I would choose.

The seat could go either way, but it's been held by ALP since 1998. In the past 30 years there's only been 2 years where Liberal held it, and that was in Howard's 1st term in which he wiped out Keating. Chances are it'd fall ALP.

But I think more importantly, walking away would mean he has no more relevance to what happens. What if ALP wins the seat? Life goes on as usual and even Shorten will come out in full force and ridicule him. Besides, even if the ALP doesn't win a seat and an election is forced and the ALP loses, they'll forever blame Rudd. He'll become another Latham.

If he wanted to retire on the Noosa beach, he would've done that in 1998 with $100m.

 

[Deltaberry]

Exactly. If this was going on, I'm not sure why Julia didn't sack him earlier. Maybe because of the concerns about minority government? I'm not sure.

The other question is, if Rudd is eventually returned as leader, who will he have in his cabinet? Swan, after his outburst yesterday, would have to go. Crean would have to go. I just heard Kate Ellis on the radio, and she would have to go. Julia would be out, obviously.

Might be just Ruddy and Chris Bowen.

Plenty of people.

Among the most important, Shorten and Combet (the aspirational leaders) will stay. Shorten hasn't said anything. And Combet hasn't said anything derogatory.

Among the senior people, Penny Wong, Jenny Macklin, Stephen Smith, Anthony Albanese would be viable.

Among the junior, Doug Cameron, Robert McClelland, Martin Ferguson, Kim Carr, Peter Garrett, Brendan O'Connor, Joe Ludwig would all be viable.

 

[Aaron Sice]

im unenrolled to vote.

and glad.

if this is all the choice we get, its screwed no matter what course of action we take.

 

[BMan]

how the hell do you unenroll to vote?
i didnt want to enroll in the first place

i didnt like johnny howard as PM but atleast he could run the country
yes he brought gst in but in hindsight it was needed, the only bad thing i dont like about it is when businesses double gst you

all pm's sidestep and lie but whats with julia constantly saying there will be no carbon tax and then brings one in?
whats with julia spending 300million to send boat people to malaysia and that was only for like 800 people and then then kept coming here anyway?
and whats with them getting put in hotels and bought smokes etc they're living better than half the australians!

i say Kevin all the way otherwise bring liberals back in they will need a few years to sort out julias mess

im disappointed abbot didnt get in in the last election.

 

[Deltaberry]

Let those 800 people in and build a new hospital with that $300m.

What a useless party. And I thought they're meant to represent the underprivileged class like refugees. Why are they sending them away? Is it because they can't vote?