When will gold hit $1,000 per oz ?

[RichardC]

Good grief, Batman.......and all this from the renowned 'Financial Sense University'! I think I may do a little more research.

Actually Plumtree that was a subscription service. People pay good money for that rubbish. FSU merely reprinted it.

I brought it to your attention to show that economists and central bankers take the price of gold VERY seriously. Thay are manning the parapets as we speak, defending the US$ with everything at their disposal. That means knocking gold.

 

[topcropper]

I've been ranting and raving about low grain prices and how they should be linked to the oil price. Farmers can't continue to grow something at a loss while big corporations take all the profit.

Interesting things happening to grain at the moment. World ending stocks are at multi-decade lows and drought is effecting lots of places similtainiousely. Wheat prices went up nearly 5% overnight,...

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0...&study1=&study2=&study3=&bartype=&bardensity=

And just as other financial markets are having a puke. I think people may start to realise that grain is a true hedge against inflation, and as a bonus you can eat it.

I am long grain. Both futures, and silos full and unsold.

See ya's.

 

[young_gun]

The time bomb is the US economy, when all hell breaks loose with the US economy, due to the massive unstainable CAD, the countries that previously held stores in the $US, such as some of the large middle easter oiling coutries will sell their $USD stores and put it into gold.

 

[emw]

So what do people think of Christopher Laird's article? It makes sense to me as an interested layman. America's shockingly bad financial position has been known for decades, but if it's becoming consensus amongst the powers that be, maybe the end game is coming soon?

America has been able to live off its reputation & military for far too long, and the longer the delay before the crash, the worse it'll be. So how can they possibly stop the transition from USD to say, the Euro, as the world's reserve currency?

Sure, they're trying to invade Iran after Iraq, but what happens when a big country makes the change, such as China? There's no invading China, or bullying either, given how the US needs cheap Chinese goods.

All 'great' powers rise, endure & then collapse. Just like markets. That'll never change. I'm not sure how keen I am on huge debts for buy & hold property if this kind of collapse is on its way in the next few years ...

Of course, it could take another decade or longer. Timing is always the challenge. Is there anyone out there with a better grasp of this who could offer a possible timeframe?

Ed

 

[stretchy]

Timing is always the challenge. Is there anyone out there with a better grasp of this who could offer a possible timeframe?

Ed

I wouldnt recommend trying if I were you. Attempting to time the downfall of the most powerful nation on earth (however flawed it may be) is a dangerous game.

I always remember reading a famous book (Market Wizards by Schwager) Its basically a bunch of interviews with big-time traders. Half of them spent the interview bitching about the unsustainable situation regarding the account/trade deficit and other such issues - basically everything you hear about today. Problem is that book came out in 1990 - right before the biggest bull market in history for US stocks. If you listened to the doom-sayers then, you would have lost out big time.

It may all end one day, but I for one wont be trying to make money off it before it happens. And try to remember that any big-time collapse in the US will be felt _everywhere_ - well maybe not gold, but anything else indexed to money, including pretty much every major stock market in the world. It wont be a fun time..

 

[Aceyducey]

Emw,

I predict that the US economy will collapse at 2.57pm (AEST) on Tuesday 22nd May 2007.

I reckon I've got as much change of being accurate as the top 10% of super fund analysts.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[TheBacon]

I predict that the US economy will collapse at 2.57pm (AEST) on Tuesday 22nd May 2007.

Can some-one set up a collapse count-down clock on a webpage somewhere? Would be nice to see how you went a year from now Acey

TB

 

[Andrew_A]

..
I always remember reading a famous book (Market Wizards by Schwager) Its basically a bunch of interviews with big-time traders. Half of them spent the interview bitching about the unsustainable situation regarding the account/trade deficit and other such issues - basically everything you hear about today. Problem is that book came out in 1990 - right before the biggest bull market in history for US stocks. If you listened to the doom-sayers then, you would have lost out big time....

Did we read the same book? Seems like we took different lessons from it.

The Market Wizards series are all on my 'must read trading books list'. I have read them all twice or more. If there was a common theme about directional views these people had is that they were nothing if not flexible and adaptive, a good trader won't let his opinion get in the way of a profit for long. Quite a few of them did see and profit from the major turning points in the market, probably why they are wizards!

I like taking the alternate side to what I see as strong consensus, I did this recently with the Aus share market when I went 100% cash at the end of April.

A few areas of strong consensus in the markets, not to say the majority aren't right but just to consider what might happen if the majority aren't right or how quickly things will change when everyone has jumped on board. When everyone has bought, there are only sellers left.

* Gold is heading to $1000 soon and much higher potentially.
* Oil is doing the same
* The US is heading towards fiscal oblivion
* Bernanke and the Fed are fools
* Commodities are in a super bull cycle

 

[stretchy]

Did we read the same book? Seems like we took different lessons from it.

The Market Wizards series are all on my 'must read trading books list'. I have read them all twice or more. If there was a common theme about directional views these people had is that they were nothing if not flexible and adaptive, a good trader won't let his opinion get in the way of a profit for long. Quite a few of them did see and profit from the major turning points in the market, probably why they are wizards!

I agree- one of the best trading books out there. The point I was trying to make is that the same issues existed back then and were discussed in financial circles - just like they are now. I am in no way implying the traders in that book allowed themselves to be blind-sided by those issues - quite the contrary!

I personally havn't made my mind up about commodities - as you mentioned, its become the status quo now and thats when things start to become dangerous. If it were easy to get into a gold ETF, I would get some exposure (5%) but throwing all my money into one asset class that I dont understand is too risky.

 

[TheBacon]

Emw,

I predict that the US economy will collapse at 2.57pm (AEST) on Tuesday 22nd May 2007.

I reckon I've got as much change of being accurate as the top 10% of super fund analysts.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

Hmmm
Not quite

But oil is almost $100 gold is over $800.

TB