When will the All Ords hit 4000?

Hi All
What is your guess for the market today?
My guess is that we could see more money flow to safer shares(if there is such an animal)
Simon
 
After the Dow on Friday, I think down about 60 pts this AM, then maybe a pullback to down 40 for the day......................

Warning, this is not advice, if I really knew I would own a yacht :D
 
simonjulie said:
Hi All
What is your guess for the market today?
My guess is that we could see more money flow to safer shares(if there is such an animal)
Simon
Today money will simply flow out of the market. Some, like the hot US money (the Carry Trade) will never return. Others such as the local traders will sit on cash for as long as it takes the markets to show they have bottomed and then buy back in. Some heroes will brave it out, thinking it is simply a "healthy correction" till their nerve breaks and they sell out at the bottom and swear off shares (till the next time). A large number will take a philisophical view that they have missed their chance to get out and stick with their stocks. Shares always go up in the long run don't they?

But there are always two sides to a deal so there are a lot of buyers too. I sold more'n half early and then made the silly mistake of trying to catch the fabled falling knife and added to my favourite silver share which is suffering along with everything else. I did spend some time last night looking for gold and silver coins on eBay though.

Thommo
 
Macca said:
After the Dow on Friday, I think down about 60 pts this AM, then maybe a pullback to down 40 for the day......................

Warning, this is not advice, if I really knew I would own a yacht :D
Good guess Macca, the SPI says -62.


simonjulie said:
My guess is that we could see more money flow to safer shares(if there is such an animal)
LPTs & LICs haven't dropped nearly as much as the market.
 
LICs usually sell at a discount to the value of shares backing the LIC's shares because the investment co has a CGT tax obligation inherent in the company, ie they must sell and pay CGT before making any cash distribution. Conversely, if the shares drop then the assumed CGT owing is reduced so there is no need for the LIC to fall as far as the market generally.

My prose is awkward but I hope you understand anyway.

T
 
Another fun day. But I did notice one thing. I run two systems a Long Term system and a short term dividend system. I am now stopped out of my Long Term system but my dividend system actually made money today.

My guess is that this shows a movement to high yield blue chips by the funds.

Michael
 
Ive got a bit of a habit, never mention the "r" word...

Im looking forward to the economic cycle and hopefully a nice recession, Id love to learn from one first hand...

Oh, I never mention that "r" word - it does terrible damage to slopes :p
 
XBenX said:
Ive got a bit of a habit, never mention the "r" word...

Im looking forward to the economic cycle and hopefully a nice recession, Id love to learn from one first hand...

Oh, I never mention that "r" word - it does terrible damage to slopes :p
But are you prepared for the "d" word or the "si"words?

If I knew what was ahead life would be simple LOL
 
Confusing market

Well the SPI futures market is again toying with 4k, seems to be an interesting psychological barrier for the moment.

Basically every man and his dog is negative on the ASX at the moment and the correction (if that's what it proves to be) is less than 10% so far.
 
With the tax cuts to high income earners this budget, and tax cuts to lower income earners expected over the next couple of budgets closer to the next election, I'm expecting the ASX to rise. I don't know by how much, but I reckon it'll be over 4500 by the time the next federal election comes around.
 
Good catch, Willair,

This shows 37% increase in ~ 18 months. Some bulls must be looking pretty fancy today eh? Well found,

Regards,
 
Good catch, Willair,

This shows 37% increase in ~ 18 months. Some bulls must be looking pretty fancy today eh? Well found,

Regards,
Les, it's good to go back and look at the old post's now and then it help's
to see if i'm on the right track, but yes it has shocked me over the past
18 months, for 18 years i payed the banks interest on the ip loans
10 years ago we bought into several of the banking sector and from what
the accountant tells me some have gone up in value over 375% not bad
for a dumb Plumber who only went to grade 10........

good luck willair.........
 
Good catch, Willair,

This shows 37% increase in ~ 18 months. Some bulls must be looking pretty fancy today eh? Well found,

Regards,
What an interesting thread to re-read. I talked too much back then but Acey's comment on it being a buying opportunity proved correct, even if a couple of weeks early. Demonstrated the risk of being too highly leveraged.... Hard to keep your nerve when your net worth is plummeting.

As Les says, all us share punters have some bragging rights but in this instance I'll keep quiet. Don't want to look too silly if it reverses again next week. LOL
 
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