Thanks for the feedback Kieran.
Interesting post.
I sometimes forget to focus on the combination of the key drivers as well.
Cheers,
Interesting post.
I sometimes forget to focus on the combination of the key drivers as well.
Cheers,
where is nsw in the property cycle
- Thread starter lizzie
- Start date
Guys,
Another article today in the SMH examining the state of the NSW economy due to a collapsing property market:
Here's the link to the full article.
Keep bottom trawling people, but don't be too keen to get back in. There's a way to go yet before there's likely to be any upside.
Cheers,
Michael.
Another article today in the SMH examining the state of the NSW economy due to a collapsing property market:
Here's the link to the full article.
Now 2012 is a mighty long way off...SMH said:
Keep bottom trawling people, but don't be too keen to get back in. There's a way to go yet before there's likely to be any upside.
Cheers,
Michael.
Tom,TomL said:
Very true... I'm looking in my area right now, but given the current flat Sydney market am not expecting the market to do the hard work for me. If I do get in soon it will be on a "value add" reno kind of property. Something I can pick up for around $500K in my hood, spend $20-30K on and revalue for around $600K. They're out there now but punters are still pitching up to around the $550K mark for them. I'm keeping an eye out and hoping something will turn up in the next year or so.
Just don't expect the market to do it for you is all.
Cheers,
Michael.
Personally I think the property market is on its way back up I have read reports that indicate this as well. As you mentiond the with the current economic climate the way it is low unemployment, low interest rates and low inflation and a growing population in capital cities I think the market correction will take less than alot of economist expected.
I read recently that In the last few months leading to investors to buy existing real has shot up 10 % . I think the main signal the property is starting to recover is increasing numbers of investors getting into the market. This is for a number of fundmental reasons:
- Often expirienced investors know when the markets have hit the bottom and know when to time their entry into the market.
- Expirience investors are quicker to relises that all prices are relative. For example a mum and dad investor might look at the average price in a suburb for a house and think gee thats expensive because 4 years ago it was 1/3 cheaper. However a more expirienced investor will know that prices dont stay stagnant and what was expensive then when it peaked is now cheaper due to the relative growth it will have in the future. Dont belive this , think about it , how many times have you heard people talk about or how many times have you though about how much cheaper houses were 10 - 15 years ago. Now they looked cheaper but back them im guessing you didnt think the same thing then, chances are your attitude hasnt really changed. Although admidantly housing prices in Aust capital cities are at an all time high proportinant to our incomes. But you get the point.
- Expirienced investors often have the comfort zone and are willing to jump into an unfavoured asset class.
I read recently that In the last few months leading to investors to buy existing real has shot up 10 % . I think the main signal the property is starting to recover is increasing numbers of investors getting into the market. This is for a number of fundmental reasons:
- Often expirienced investors know when the markets have hit the bottom and know when to time their entry into the market.
- Expirience investors are quicker to relises that all prices are relative. For example a mum and dad investor might look at the average price in a suburb for a house and think gee thats expensive because 4 years ago it was 1/3 cheaper. However a more expirienced investor will know that prices dont stay stagnant and what was expensive then when it peaked is now cheaper due to the relative growth it will have in the future. Dont belive this , think about it , how many times have you heard people talk about or how many times have you though about how much cheaper houses were 10 - 15 years ago. Now they looked cheaper but back them im guessing you didnt think the same thing then, chances are your attitude hasnt really changed. Although admidantly housing prices in Aust capital cities are at an all time high proportinant to our incomes. But you get the point.
- Expirienced investors often have the comfort zone and are willing to jump into an unfavoured asset class.
What do people think about the possibility that inflation might jump due to oil prices spiking, resulting in the RBA raising rates which will whack the property market again? The suburbs that I'm interested in in Sydney (Parramatta - Blacktown corridor, northern suburbs like Epping, Eastwood, etc) are still yielding in the 3-4% range. Those yields are sustainable only for very unusual property (oceanfront, etc where almost everyone is an owner occupier).
At those sorts of yields, I'd say prices haven't bottomed. Unless rents increase significantly and suddenly to bring the yield back up. My own prediction is a fall in price as a result of interest rate rises / recession followed by an increase in rent, brining the yield back up to the 5's.
Alex
At those sorts of yields, I'd say prices haven't bottomed. Unless rents increase significantly and suddenly to bring the yield back up. My own prediction is a fall in price as a result of interest rate rises / recession followed by an increase in rent, brining the yield back up to the 5's.
Alex
young_gun said:
I wouldn't class my self as an experienced investor , but I know several people who have been investing for long enough to be classed as that .
To a person , they have all looked at the Sydney market and have come away with the conclusion that the value isn't there yet. They think it's too early .
Just because there has been an increase in investors buying , doesn't mean it's the experienced one's buying.
My personal opinion is that there is still a fair way to go in the share market
See Change
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alexlee said:
i'm a long way from being an expert - but logic would tell me that the rba won't increase interest rates because of climbing fuel costs. fuel is (supposedly) and essential basic for our way of life, it is not a non-essential luxury or considered "consumerism". retail shopping is still declining.
lizzie,
Rising fuel prices tend to increase inflation (usually through the knock-down effect of higher production/transportation costs) and inflation is the #1 enemy of central banks. Hiking up interest rates will slowdown the economy but aslo prevent inflation from getting out of hand. Its a delicate balancing act though!
They would be more inclined to cause some short-term pain in an attempt to prevent long-term higher inflation. Something we should be very thankful for, as inflation is a good way of making everyone poor.
-Steve
Rising fuel prices tend to increase inflation (usually through the knock-down effect of higher production/transportation costs) and inflation is the #1 enemy of central banks. Hiking up interest rates will slowdown the economy but aslo prevent inflation from getting out of hand. Its a delicate balancing act though!
They would be more inclined to cause some short-term pain in an attempt to prevent long-term higher inflation. Something we should be very thankful for, as inflation is a good way of making everyone poor.
-Steve
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