Where will the growth be?
According to most experts, Sydney and Brisbane will probably do the best.
closely followed by perth, then Melbourne. Big gap...then Adelaide....after an even bigger gap...Canberra.
Commodities will hold their values. This will support perth and Brisbane. Wont be boom conditions though. Of the resource rich states, I like Brisbane as it is bigger economy than perth- and more diversified and has more jobs as well. Its also more affordable than perth. Also, the lower aussie dollar means tourists and no state will benefit as much as qld in that dept. Experts are tipping the dollar to be 82-88c range for this year.
Sydney will start well [strongest of them all], but start to fizzle in the second half of the year as affordability just becomes too damn tough. Brisbane will be the opposite- moderate start to the year , picking up strength and have the strongest second half of the year. Supporting this will be some large scale QLD resource projects that will come online this yr [ coal and gas]. I would not try my luck in mining towns- need to be close to a large and diversified employment base. Note that there wont be any big [unexpected] changes in commodity demand- the miners generally sign multi-year supply deals. Its all public information in their annual reports.
Melbourne- very split market [ just like 2013]- some areas such as southbank, docklands etc may actually go backwards because of so much supply. The inner city apartment market in Melbourne is in real trouble due to thousands of units that have and are coming online. Whereas other established suburbs 7-10 km from cbd with even a small amount of land [ e.g. glen iris] will do really well.
Perth- moderate growth. Will be supported by moderately high iron ore prices.
Adelaide- low-moderate growth. Nothing exciting at all.
Canberra- a really tough govt employment market will spell trouble for this market. Cant see any good news here. This is a classic example of why diversification is key.
