Where is the hand of the "Economic Clock" ?
- Thread starter Retire
- Start date
Not yet. It depends on what is going to happen in the future.
Sorry- if it was that easy, nobody would ever lose money in investments.
You can only ever tell the peak after it has passed. Likewise the trough.
Depends on where you are.
12 to 3 Is Flat. price growth is slow or stagnant. It takes longer to sell a piece of real estate
Consider taking profits by selling under pertorming properties. REDUCE DEBT
3 TO 6 prices begin to fall. Mortgagee auctions rise Auction clearance rates <55%.
Manage debt levels. Avoid becoming a desperate seller.
6 to 9 Improved home affordability provides fuel for the next growth phase.
Buy quality income and growth properties. Increase debt but avoid over extending.
9 to 12 Strong demand sees rapid price growth. Auction clearance rates >70%
Buy and borrow aggressively, but never more than you can afford to repay.
Auther unknown
I believe Bris. and Melb. are somewhere near the 7 to 8 mark.
Syd. near 5 to 6 mark
Adl. 6 to 7
Perth 12 to 1
Dar 12
Can. 6
Tas. 6
my opinion only
Wayne
12 to 3 Is Flat. price growth is slow or stagnant. It takes longer to sell a piece of real estate
Consider taking profits by selling under pertorming properties. REDUCE DEBT
3 TO 6 prices begin to fall. Mortgagee auctions rise Auction clearance rates <55%.
Manage debt levels. Avoid becoming a desperate seller.
6 to 9 Improved home affordability provides fuel for the next growth phase.
Buy quality income and growth properties. Increase debt but avoid over extending.
9 to 12 Strong demand sees rapid price growth. Auction clearance rates >70%
Buy and borrow aggressively, but never more than you can afford to repay.
Auther unknown
I believe Bris. and Melb. are somewhere near the 7 to 8 mark.
Syd. near 5 to 6 mark
Adl. 6 to 7
Perth 12 to 1
Dar 12
Can. 6
Tas. 6
my opinion only
Wayne
The Economic Clock
The economic clock is a composite of the individual economic indicators such as interest rates, the Australian dollar, real estate and the share market. The economic clock depicts the sequence of events in an economic cycle that influence the value of the asset classes. Each event in the cycle tends to be the result of the preceding economic condition.
An awareness of the dominant individual components of the clock is useful for both the investor and the individual.
In summary, all three major asset classes, real estate, shares and fixed interest investments, have their time in the sun. Knowing which asset class is in the activity window of opportunity can make a huge difference to the returns from the individual asset and future returns from additional assets purchased as a consequence of the returns from the original.
imho
Retire,the way i look at things both hands are set in the middle of Share
market peak,and rising interest rates..willair..
Thought I'd add this:
“The way to wealth in a bull market is debt. The way to oblivion in a bear market is also debt, and nobody rings a bell. Easy access to credit facilitates the marginal transaction. It enlarges the gross national product, expands the debt industry, and creates the rationale for a future relaxation of lending standards. It hefts up prosperity by its bootstraps and makes it something more than it would otherwise be. It produces stupendous fees and underwriting commissions for investment bankers. Good ideas become bad ideas through a competitive process of “Can you top this?” But when the cycle turns, the process must swing into reverse. Marginal transactions, financed by debt, must be unwound through foreclosure or bankruptcy. Asset values, propped up by debt, must fall, and thereby reduce other asset values in a chain reaction.”
- James Grant (“Michael Milken, Meet Sewell Avery” 1989)
My emphasis.
“The way to wealth in a bull market is debt. The way to oblivion in a bear market is also debt, and nobody rings a bell. Easy access to credit facilitates the marginal transaction. It enlarges the gross national product, expands the debt industry, and creates the rationale for a future relaxation of lending standards. It hefts up prosperity by its bootstraps and makes it something more than it would otherwise be. It produces stupendous fees and underwriting commissions for investment bankers. Good ideas become bad ideas through a competitive process of “Can you top this?” But when the cycle turns, the process must swing into reverse. Marginal transactions, financed by debt, must be unwound through foreclosure or bankruptcy. Asset values, propped up by debt, must fall, and thereby reduce other asset values in a chain reaction.”
- James Grant (“Michael Milken, Meet Sewell Avery” 1989)
My emphasis.
Didn't think anyone noticed.Sounds like you're ringing the bell ?
Besides I have had this ringing in my ears for ages and I can't separate the signal from the noise either. But the risk involved with new commitments is too high for me. I haven't cashed out of existing ones and gone into gold though.
Around a 4:30-5 here in Adelaide, I won't comment on the other States.
I'm going to put Canberra at 4.30.
