Where the market seems to be moving

[eeew]

This is a good rundown on where to buy.

Id add to this by suggesting the longer held, the better [ id suggest at least 2 full cycles]. The conclusion of the article sums it up nicely.

http://www.apimagazine.com.au/blog/2014/08/the-number-one-driver-of-property-price-growth/

 

[onion33]

While we're at it, what are people's thoughts on this article in The Age this morning? http://www.theage.com.au/business/spring-in-the-property-market-may-be-a-leap-too-far-20140829-109vrm.html

It says Syd and Melb might be too hot at the moment.

I was thinking of buying in Melb. Is now the wrong time?

 

[Foxy Moron]

Apart from the headline, I actually view this is a fairly balanced report ? giving equal time to the doom and gloomers, as well as those who understand whats driving this market. Plus I learnt about a new tribe of people ? the wounded underbidders.
Like the sharemarket it can be difficult to time when property markets will turn. And if you blink too early you may not benefit from the sweetest part of the boom. Ultimately however when there are more sellers than buyers the market will go quiet and it can do so for long periods of time. So the most important thing is to position yourself to grab a chair when the music stops. Hence market intelligence, serviceability and buffers are part of most smart investors' kit bag. In answer to your question Onion, I would say do sufficient homework to ensure any property you buy stacks up okay if the wind turns the other way. In a red-hot market anything sells (eg properties on busy roads etc) but the appeal for below par stock quickly evaporates in a buyers market. Just my view.

 

[MTR]

This is a good rundown on where to buy.

Id add to this by suggesting the longer held, the better [ id suggest at least 2 full cycles]. The conclusion of the article sums it up nicely.

http://www.apimagazine.com.au/blog/2014/08/the-number-one-driver-of-property-price-growth/

Thanks eeew
This is nothing new, MY has always promoted buying blue chip for growth and this is I believe what his BA service promotes. Its not rocket science and nothing too difficult about this, certainly wont need his BA service.

MTR

 

[Mindmaster]

Thanks eeew
This is nothing new, MY has always promoted buying blue chip for growth and this is I believe what his BA service promotes. Its not rocket science and nothing too difficult about this, certainly wont need his BA service.

MTR

According to the junk mail I keep on getting from MY, he has ditched his line on well located blue chip and is now promoting developments. If you hurry up, you may just be able to secure a seat in one of his work shops where you will waste time and money with other like minded investors (sheep)

 

[RetireRich101]

What are people's view on future performance of inner, middle and outer ring, say in the next 5 years?

I spent some time on the NSW house median for the last 20 years.
The raw numbers were from NSW Housing

Instead of a complete property cycle(as I wasn't sure which is the beginning and end), I captured a 5 year window going back to 1994. The % is the annual median change over the 5 year window. The raw number are for non-strata (meaning house not unit)

As you can see in 1999-2004, the outer ring and GMR out performed inner/middle ring 3-4%

I agree Yardley's report seeing future growth where the job prospect hence shifting to inner/middle ring, but wanted to get SS view and underlying reasons( if any) for increasing demand for outer ring...

====
1994-1999
Inner Ring 10.48% annual growth for the 5 years
Middle Ring 8.83%
Outer Ring 6.76%
Rest of GMR 4.05%

1999-2004
Inner Ring 12.55%
Middle Ring 13.85%
Outer Ring 15.32%
Rest of GMR 16.30%

2004-2009
Inner Ring 1.30%
Middle Ring -2.18%
Outer Ring -2.11%
Rest of GMR 0.09%

2009-2014
Inner Ring 10.41%
Middle Ring 10.92%
Outer Ring 7.81%
Rest of GMR 5.48%

 

[redwing]

Just monitor where MTR is buying

 

[WattleIdo]

What are people's view on future performance of inner, middle and outer ring, say in the next 5 years?

I agree Yardley's report seeing future growth where the job prospect hence shifting to inner/middle ring, but wanted to get SS view and underlying reasons( if any) for increasing demand for outer ring...

It would be worth seeing what devank has to say on this.

imo the outer ring increases because of affordability.

Also, I imagine that we are becoming less reliant on living in the big smoke. Surely the internet is having an effect on our work and workplaces and we haven't seen the full impact yet(?).
When I started my career, inner Sydney was the only place to be - soon after, Melbourne, Brisbane and then Perth were recognised as cosmopolitan hubs. Now, not only am I employable in any capital city, I can work in the sticks too.
Not everyone is going to want to live so close to each other in the inner-city. I think more people will go regional and the jobs will follow and it'll be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Singles, gay couples, retirees, artists, immigrants are now an accepted part of society in the country and bring money and culture. It's easier, friendlier, cheaper living with the same amenities and work within walking distance.
I think that both the cities and the regionals will grow.

 

[RetireRich101]

imo the outer ring increases because of affordability.

I think this makes perfect sense.
I know at least few people that are recently migrated to Sydney from overseas, that they're searching out to Penrith and Woy Woy in the sub $350k. They're well aware it is a 60 min commute one way to the CBD, but they dont have much choice really. In their situation, price dictates where they want to live, not their occupation.

I live in Sydney, in the last 10 years, I commute by train to/from work and it takes me 65min one way. I would prefer a shorter trip, but I am not such a complainer. I personally find the train timetable now are much better than before and with alot of brand new trains in operation it is quiet comfortable to travel ..As Transport for NSW tries desperate to 'untangled' the train system , we will see the better of it for outer ring..