Where's the crash

[chilliaa]

what US rebound???? dont rely on propped up news stories!

the US is far far far from rebounding.......in fact it may get worse yet..

nothing is going to improve until credit markets become stable..right now its on a cliff edge waiting to topple on any sign of more bad news which i would say isnt far off...

there is a lot of data that all markets are not going to like over the next few months coming out of the US plus its quite possible more large corporations may fold...........for a start!

excuse the negativity but your statement is not factual in any way..the risk is still on the down side unless you listen to obarma...

credit markets are not on a cliff edge waiting to topple:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

credit spreads are now around 50 basis points above where they should be for a normalised credit market.

In regards to data comming out of the US, make sure you focus on forward looking indicators and not retrospective indicators (with the exception of looking at the degree of change within the retrospective indicators).

Who cares if some large companies blow up in the next few months. Things have been so bad over there for the last 6 months that this is already priced in.

The risk is actually to the upside in my opinion, with so many people extrapolating depression style conditions to continue, when i think you will find that the US is just in a deep recession. This is nothing like the 1930's.

Anway i stand by my opinion, US housing market to bottom within 4 months (or less).
Come back to this post in 4 months and you can tell me whether i have been incorrect or otherwise

 

[audas]

HI AUdas, thank you for your honest reply. I agree most of things (facts) you presented here. One thing I dont agree is the Australia market --- too small a country. We do not have manufacture - which is mostly hit by the market; we do not have high techs - which is mostly hit at moment; we do not have financial market like US or UK, which being hit heavily ---- we have is the resources which is most wanted by the world anyway --- may not be the best price like last few years -- but still in demand. Will we see the lights in UK or US, Japan, German, France... I do not think so. The holes in their system are so deep for them to fill by printing money.... Under current global trade system, it is the end of those "industralised" countries. Free market trade has NOT benefited those developed countries, but those developings, because the rules are not in the fair battleground, such as China. As George Soros said, China has gained too much power too soon, but nobody has asked why they gained so much power so soon.... The westerners give too much to China too soon and plaied by China by their rules, however, the westeners, their rules are a open book.... just like negotiatioin, one part keeps theirs secret but another opens up all they have... we know the result....

Something like four of our banks are in the top ten, Macquiarie being one of the largest of its kind, we are involved in finance however our domestic banking regulation is more solid - what you are missing is that we are in a GLOBAL credit crisis. This is why banks are already putting up their rates even as the RBA lowers the base rate - becuase credit from overseas where our banks borrow is tight.
Don't forget that Australia may be a resource producer, however %80 - massive figure - of our resources are owned externally by UK, French,

Swiss, Japanese, American etc. so they are affected as well. This is why China wants to Buy Rio.

European countries such as the UK are "post-indulstrialised" - they are service based economies which outside of natural resources is exactly what Australia is.

China will overtake the US as the most wealthy and powerful nation on earth by 2040 from what I have heard. From what I have seen, they are pretty much there now.

As for everything else I have forecast in this thread I Rudd statements over the past weeks, the IMF, the end of the FHBG have all confirmed exactly what I have been saying.

Cheers,

Good luck.


P.s.

Don't need an exit strategy - no debt.

 

[The Fence]

China will overtake the US as the most wealthy and powerful nation on earth by 2040 from what I have heard. From what I have seen, they are pretty much there now.

So, is that a bad thing...?

 

[BayView]

So, is that a bad thing...?

Any Country that can have 300,000 babies affected by the tainted milk scare last year is a bad thing.

And that's only the babies that were affected. How many more are there that weren't?

300,000.....................

 

[Ms Jade]

Inflation is the easy out for governments, much better politically than deflation. Given the amount of money created, can anyone expect anything other than inflation ahead??

bye

I'm no longer worried about inflation in the short to medium term. The lost billions in asset write-downs just means that money that never really existed has been deleted off the computerised balance sheets of the banks. If you believe the IMF that "toxic assets" will be written off to the tune of $5.8billion, they'll need to print at least this much money to get back to equiilibrium.

 

[plusnq]

I'm no longer worried about inflation in the short to medium term. The lost billions in asset write-downs just means that money that never really existed has been deleted off the computerised balance sheets of the banks. If you believe the IMF that "toxic assets" will be written off to the tune of $5.8billion, they'll need to print at least this much money to get back to equiilibrium.

I'd suggest keeping an eye on this chart if you wish to monitor inflation.

http://www.metastocktools.com/#USindex

Cheers

Shane

 

[boz]

I'd suggest keeping an eye on this chart if you wish to monitor inflation.

http://www.metastocktools.com/#USindex

Cheers

Shane

thanks Shane,
quite a good link with interesting data

 

[csc]

Anway i stand by my opinion, US housing market to bottom within 4 months (or less).
Come back to this post in 4 months and you can tell me whether i have been incorrect or otherwise

Any mug could say that...all guess work only on your part...if it isnt then perhaps you need to take control of world financial markets yourself cause a 50-50 guess is as good as anyones.

Upside you say? I say not a chance...housing markets in the US will be very very flat for quite some time yet ie: years before they get back anywhere close to 2007 levels.

..and Australia will be behind that without question....

Aussie market looks rosey now because of the small retrace in many areas but the real test is yet to come when inflation sets in and rates reverse.

 

[plusnq]

Aussie market looks rosey now because of the small retrace in many areas but the real test is yet to come when inflation sets in and rates reverse.

Hi csc

What do you expect to happen then?

Cheers

Shane

 

[The Fence]

Any mug could say that...all guess work only on your part...if it isnt then perhaps you need to take control of world financial markets yourself cause a 50-50 guess is as good as anyones.

Upside you say? I say not a chance...housing markets in the US will be very very flat for quite some time yet ie: years before they get back anywhere close to 2007 levels.

..and Australia will be behind that without question....

Aussie market looks rosey now because of the small retrace in many areas but the real test is yet to come when inflation sets in and rates reverse.

And of course you're not a mug are you...?

 

[The Fence]

Any Country that can have 300,000 babies affected by the tainted milk scare last year is a bad thing.

And that's only the babies that were affected. How many more are there that weren't?

300,000.....................

300,000......out of 1,330,044,544 (July 2008 est.) ...small change.....

And it's ok for us to poison people with asbestos...knowing full well it was happening....?

If China is going to be the big boy then we'd be smart to align soon wouldn't you think...? We already are anyway...too late....a growing important customer as well as the 'made in china' factor. Oh...and our illustrious PM speaks their tongue....sssshhhh....what's he saying to them...?

You don't have to drink their milk... on the other hand... be carefull of your own city water supply...Syd water scare in the 90's comes to mind....

I guess I was looking for more than a health scare as a reason for China to be a bad thing at the top.

 

[Sunfish]

Hang on! What Chilly says:

US housing market to bottom within 4 months (or less).

and what CSC says:

Upside you say? I say not a chance...housing markets in the US will be very very flat for quite some time yet ie: years before they get back anywhere close to 2007 levels.

are not mutually exclusive. US housing is already well below replacement price and the floor might have been found in Miami because it is still somewhere Yanks like to live. California may still fall a little because tax-exiles are leaving the Governator's mess. Texas never boomed and has not suffered badly either. So Chilly could well be right.

There is over 12 months of new stock already built so until that clears CSC will be proven right also.

The US is like the Curate's egg: OK in parts. Much of the overhang will be cleared by large tracts of existing houses in the auto/rust belt in Michigan and such states simply being abandoned. Whole districts without a tax paying owner/resident to be seen. The houses will be unlivable because all the copper etc will have been stripped. "Toxic" houses?

 

[BayView]

300,000......out of 1,330,044,544 (July 2008 est.) ...small change.....

And it's ok for us to poison people with asbestos...knowing full well it was happening....?

If China is going to be the big boy then we'd be smart to align soon wouldn't you think...? We already are anyway...too late....a growing important customer as well as the 'made in china' factor. Oh...and our illustrious PM speaks their tongue....sssshhhh....what's he saying to them...?

You don't have to drink their milk... on the other hand... be carefull of your own city water supply...Syd water scare in the 90's comes to mind....

I guess I was looking for more than a health scare as a reason for China to be a bad thing at the top.

The point of the post was not the fact that they were poisoned by bad milk.

It was just the example of how many kiddies there were that could be affected.

The point was the sheer size of the population, and the likelihood that the whole world will be over-run by them in a few more decades.

Add India's $1 bill population and growing exponentially - as is China's - and you see what I'm talking about.

Before too long, China will be as militarily strong as the USA. The technology is there, they will have the dollars, and already have the volume of bodies to form the biggest army in the world. And there will be none of this volunteer stuff - you get told to join the army; you join.

When you're at the top you get to make a lot of the rules.

So far, we have lived by Britian's and then USA's rules, and they are very similar to us as a societies, so we are relatively happy in this status quo and heritage (my distaste for our society's "Yank-ification" notwithstanding).

Are we happy to live by China's or India's rules down the track?

 

[Sunfish]

Are we happy to live by China's or India's rules?

Do you have a choice other than nuking them? I doubt BHP and RIO shareholders would see the humour in this.

I'm a realist in this and it is odd that it is only our Labor Governments which have tried to exert a positive influence on China by reversing some of the antagonistic attitudes of the Aus/US alliance.

 

[csc]

And of course you're not a mug are you...?

exactly..its all here say sunshine from all sides....gut feeling..watching local markets, trading, and the b.s news reports are all what we take in to make a decision in buy/sell/hold/wait.....having said that i still feel mid term 12-36 mths the risk is down still even in oz..

i am very concerned about inflation kicking in down the track which in turn will most lightly hurt many who are up to their eyeballs in debt already and are struggling at todays rate prices...........can you imagine the fallout if rates start to nudge, 8-10% again after the buying frenzy last 6 mths from FHB'ers along with unemployment it could be very difficult for many...

i hope it doesnt happen but i think people should realize theres every chance this is how it will pan out soon enough..

the govt loves trying to put the brakes on inflation with rste rises....they can easy go up as quick as they came down..

you cannot look short term currently when investing in this climate, you must plan ahead and be sure you can meet repayments...,many dont.

im happy to fence sit currently with serious investments in property..i have just two investments.....sold four last 18 mths...cash will do me for now until im satisfied the market is ready to move forward not sideway or flat.

good luck.

 

[The Fence]

Marc...good point about the masses of Chinese and Indians, but I'm with Sunfish...nuke or puke..? is it a given that they will kills us all and there will be nothing but Chinese on Earth..? If so, good on 'em...only the strong survive.
Sorry if it's a bit of a downer reply but what can you or I do about it in reality....?

csc....I'm having issues with you calling other people mugs when you are just saying the exact opposite to them and agree that either of you could be right or wrong....then you go on to say how your view will be the most likely....... Whatever...I do agree it's all heresay and that's where it should stop for now... wait and see....

Heads down, bums up, work hard, try to make a difference and stay positive I reckon.

 

[pieman]

Back to the original post and some anecdotal observations around my area, I spied this one
http://www.realestateview.com.au/1336412
and it was a dump, so a land value house not in a great position on a busy road on a small block (600sqm) but had nth aspect and +60ft frontage.
Well it sold for 1.4 which puts it near the 225$ per sq ft which is only a little under standard price for knock downs in the good ole days 18 mnths ago. Another one at auction last week on big land on a busy road had a genuine bid of 2m which puts in in the 200$ persqrft, which was big dollars given the crap position.
I think the exe. stuff in melbourne has gone back up 15% in the last 3 months after seeing 10 auctions/sales.
There is still allot of people with lots of cash stashed in the bank
pieman

 

[audas]

Not sure whether this has been posted here already - however some reality to the figures and stats bandied about here willy nilly - have a read rather than just dismissing anything which does not already conform to your "beliefs"..

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/...2009-lies-damned-lies-and-housing-statistics/

Further as I have been desperately trying to tell you our mining industry is headed for trouble -

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/27/2553025.htm?section=justin

Its hard to emphasise the implications for this long term - this impacts three, four years into Australia's future. the IMF and Swan have said, unequivocally that the world economy is going to continue to contract until at the very earliest middle 2010 - thats when it stops going backwards - now consider we are lagging behind in our being effected by world events due to our inelastic economy we can push this out by six months.
Now consider the actual recovery, getting back to where we were at the start of all this - 3,4% - could be three years away.

 

[BoatBoy]

Further as I have been desperately trying to tell you our mining industry is headed for trouble -

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/27/2553025.htm?section=justin

How come the gloomers are now taking BIS Shrapnel's predictions as Gospel?

BIS Shrapnel says the decline will follow strong growth this financial year, tipped to be about 17 per cent.

They reckon have been all lies previously.

Cant have it both ways

Dave

 

[BoatBoy]

Not sure whether this has been posted here already - however some reality to the figures and stats bandied about here willy nilly - have a read rather than just dismissing anything which does not already conform to your "beliefs"..

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/...2009-lies-damned-lies-and-housing-statistics/

.

Try using the search function, you will see it has been used before and I believe debunked.

And why is it reality?

Wheres the crash mr keen, time has almost ran out and we aren't even close.
I do hope you like the walk up the mountain

Dave