Which shares to buy now?

[The_Bludger]

Obviously the wrong forum(I don't know any share forums), but I was kinda hoping those that spread their eggs(property and shares) were willing to give me a hand as to were I could place $20K or so?

I'd say I'd like to stick with the blue chip for now who'd shares have dipped significantly, maybe across 4 or 5 companies? Maybe more, maybe less?

Please help. Thanks.

 

[Sunfish]

If you asked this on HotCopper at least half the respondents would say something like "Don't go long in a falling market".

Put your money in the bank, take a bex and have a good lie down.

 

[oc1]

I think everyone is more scared that they are going to miss out on a (possible) rally in shares rather than trying to protect their capital instead. It's laughable really

Sell into strength and take a holiday. I'd say better buying opportunities later. When? Not now.

 

[Aaron Sice]

wait for a confirmed direction before going long. the trend is your friend. i'd much ratehr sacrifice 5% profit for a more likely chance of making more, than bottom fishing and getting stung.

#1 shield your capital
#2 protect your profits
#3 see #1.

shorting ban has been lifted, so maybe short? either way dude, asking for very specific advice is gonna get you nowhere, because no-one will give it, and if we do, the post will be deleted anyway.

cheers.

 

[The_Bludger]

either way dude, asking for very specific advice is gonna get you nowhere, because no-one will give it, and if we do, the post will be deleted anyway.cheers.

There's always the "PM" feature.

Thanks for advise so far guys. Let me just say even though I dabble in property, I know stuff all about the share market. But from all the falls over the last few months, wouldn't now be a good time to enter it, even if the share market was to dip a bit further?

 

[WinstonWolfe]

If you ask why the share market is going down, you'll appreciate why property maybe next.

 

[see_change]

I've got my mony in the bank at the moment and I'm happy to leave it there untill the currently volitility settles.

Cliff

 

[willair]

Obviously the wrong forum(I don't know any share forums), but I was kinda hoping those that spread their eggs(property and shares) were willing to give me a hand as to were I could place $20K or so?

I'd say I'd like to stick with the blue chip for now who'd shares have dipped significantly, maybe across 4 or 5 companies? Maybe more, maybe less?

Please help. Thanks.

T-B,just ask yourself one question like i know a few would be asking themselves the same question right now who bought in over the last few days in the high end blue chips on the ASX,WHEN WILL ALL THIS MESS SORT ITSELF OUT?,myself i don't know i've only made 2 buys this week monday PAG,and that was looking good till this morning,the other buy is down 37% from purchase so you don't need my tips,get yourself a safety deposit box with one bank and one only then hide the key
and wait,the only winners in this market is the brokers and the ATO
not the punters..imho..willair..

 

[buzzlightyear]

Poseidon!

Is the best place to ask for advice regarding a share tip or three on a public internet forum and a property forum at that

And here I was thinking going long, was the way Collingwood should be playing their football more consistently.

 

[ernie]

There's always the "PM" feature.

Thanks for advise so far guys. Let me just say even though I dabble in property, I know stuff all about the share market. But from all the falls over the last few months, wouldn't now be a good time to enter it, even if the share market was to dip a bit further?

Hi Bludger,

Always best to invest in something that you know well. Take what you do with property investing (ie market research, pricing, etc) and apply that to companies that you may be interested in. I think you'll find that although a lot of people claim that property and shares are worlds apart, ultimately the due diligence you would apply to either investment class will most likely determine the success of your investment.

You might want to start with companies that you already support. For example, you might a regular shopper at Woolies or perhaps you buy all your DVD's from JB Hi Fi. Maybe you take out all your investment loans at the CBA, or you recently went to a Ramsey hospital. You probably support those companies, at least from a consumer's standpoint, because you are happy with their service/product quality/pricing/etc. The one thing I always ask myself is if I would be happy to be the owner of the entire company. If you had the money, would you be happy to buy the entire business? If the answer is yes, then continue with your research. If the answer is no, then why would you want to buy a share in the business?

Hope that helps

e

 

[sash]

I think now is a good time to buy...why because everyone else is scares and selling off. Warren Buffet is buying now.....but only in profitable companies that have been sold down due to emotion.

My strategy is:

1. I only buy the top 20 in the ASX....in the last couple of months I have tended to buy the top 7.

2. I am buying them in 1000 lots

3. I am writing covered calls to supplement income and manage risk. The shares are down about 7% on paper but this will not crystalise till I sell and i have no intention of selling at a loss. Due to option premiums I am still 10% up on my investments I made 3 months ago.

4. As I have borrowed 60% of the purchase price of the shares...I expect to have this figure down to 35% by June 2009 via using the options premiums to pay of the margin loan. So far it is working.

Cheer
Sash

There's always the "PM" feature.

Thanks for advise so far guys. Let me just say even though I dabble in property, I know stuff all about the share market. But from all the falls over the last few months, wouldn't now be a good time to enter it, even if the share market was to dip a bit further?

 

[Player]

As indicated in another post, I attended the investment and property expo last weekend in Melbourne.....

.......... The three shares speakers whose books I have read and who are fairly conservative are all in cash right now.

Colin Nicholson, Dale Gillham and Alan Hull are waiting for bear market to finish. No one knows if it will go any lower (it might not), however how long it lasts is anyones guess.

Alan Hull was forecasting this for a while and heard him speak July (2007) and was going to subscribe to one of his weekly reports at that time to assist with active investing in our family trust.

Elected to hold off and heard him talk similarly later that year and earlier this year along with Colin Nicholson and was glad to not have subscribed. Indeed at the expo on Sat, Alan Hull advised the audience that subscribing to his Blue Chip report would not work right now in this market.

I have no shares at present, sold the last tranche of our SMSF holdings a few months ago to fund a property purchase in the super fund for cash. Am now waiting for signs to re-enter and ride the bull sentiment up, up and away........and learning when to sell. With some blue chips having retreated to prices of the year 2000.....the buy and hold strategy eventually unfolds as an expensive exercise in opportunity cost. My biggest learnings have been knowing when to sell, and I admit I haven't always followed the signals to lock in profits and cut the losers short.


Right now reading and learning more and working on mind-set. My confidence took some beatings last year with some option strategies that did not suit the market that has now evolved.

All three purport the following.....buy a rising share and sell a falling share. The market indices have not shown any clear direction yet. The rallies and retreats are following consistency of the bowel movements of the US.

Colin Nicholson believes we are in the second last phase of the bear market. The last phase being evidenced by increasing unemployment (of which I believe we are starting to get a sniff of in the air at the moment) and panic selling. On that basis there may be further capitulation to come.

Right now, ca$h rules. Read plenty, learn more and be prepared to pounce when some upward direction is shown. As Blue Card has posted above, better to forsake the first 5% (or even 10 %) of a confirmed upward trend than to buy cheap when we do not know how much cheaper things will get.

This is merely my opinion and what I'm doing. It is not specific advice.

 

[oc1]

I think now is a good time to buy...why because everyone else is scares and selling off. Warren Buffet is buying now.....but only in profitable companies that have been sold down due to emotion.

Yes, but with VERY favourable terms. Warren buying shares is not the same as us mere investors buying shares. So it is silly to compare. I don't think he would buy into those companies without the terms he had negotiated.

 

[sash]

True.....but the share market is all about human emotion and psychology!

At the moment....I am loving it! The strategy I am using is working...so I am content with it...I only started 3 months ago...so time will tell. But I am determined to rebuild my shares portfolio which I sold off 50% in June 2007 and then remaining 50% in Jan. 2008.

I hope to have a 100k portfolio by June 2009 with a gearing of 30%. So far so good.....

cheers
sash

Yes, but with VERY favourable terms. Warren buying shares is not the same as us mere investors buying shares. So it is silly to compare. I don't think he would buy into those companies without the terms he had negotiated.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Let's see......

Aug 08
1 oz Gold cost 800USD
1 USD cost .95AUD
= gold cost 842AUD


Today
1 oz Gold cost 840USD
1 USD cost .6686AUD
= gold cost 1256AUD


Wow, a 50% return on gold in 2 mths.
OR
300%pa inflation on the AUD.
OR
1000 August AUDs now buys a third less Hahn Beers.

Hmmm.......cash in those Aussie banks don't seem so safe anymore....

 

[Max Carnage]

Problem with gold is that outside of the value that man places on it for various purposes, it really is worthless (I know it has some special properties that make it useful for specific manufacturing purposes, but it would have these values regardless of whether it was priced at $1 or $1000). And so it's almost impossible to know whether a particular price point at a particular time is super cheap, cheap, fair, expensive or bubblicious!

And so it is risky.

If the price falls, the income provided by a chest full of doubloons is... let's see... zilch!

I own gold. But advocating its purchase based on recent price movements (particularly upward ones) seems a bit strange?

 

[WinstonWolfe]

I own gold. But advocating its purchase based on recent price movements (particularly upward ones) seems a bit strange?

Did gold move up, or did the AUD move down???????

That's the problem being a supplier of raw materials to a world that is decreasing its consumption.....and having a Current account deficit, during one of the biggest commodities booms ever.

Combine that with CBs all over the place inflating dollars to keep asset values where the market doesn't want them, and I reckon being a gold advocate won't hurt me.

 

[Sunfish]

Sash, why would you be writing covered calls in this market?

Everything is already way off their peak. If you buy 1000 shares now and then the sun comes out and everything rallies, you miss out most of the gains because you've sold a call. You risk the money but miss the reward.

If your optimism was misplaced and things drop further, your few percent premium won't cover your loss and you are already down 7%.

I've thought about this for some time now and have reached the conclusion that it would work best during long periods of slow market appreciation.

 

[oc1]

Sash, why would you be writing covered calls in this market?

Everything is already way off their peak. If you buy 1000 shares now and then the sun comes out and everything rallies, you miss out most of the gains because you've sold a call. You risk the money but miss the reward.

If your optimism was misplaced and things drop further, your few percent premium won't cover your loss and you are already down 7%.

I've thought about this for some time now and have reached the conclusion that it would work best during long periods of slow market appreciation.

Agree. I stopped this strategy late last year. Sash, i hope you're protected.

 

[Aaron Sice]

SUnfish - i would imagine you would buy the call back (depending if you sold far enough OTM) and wear a small loss for some cap gain.

but that's the risk i guess. if you bought FMG shares at $6, now near $3 and you write $5 calls your premium over a few months could equal your capital loss if you're exercised.

different strategies for different folks i guess.