Mate; you are seriously kidding, right?
"Price".....
"Tax"......
And the temperature still won't change....
Why Abbott could lose the ‘unloseable’ election
- Thread starter evand
- Start date
"Price".....
"Tax"......
And the temperature still won't change....
It's a very good question Ned. Despite the general trend against Labor right now, they hold so many safe seats in both Western Sydney and Western Melbourne where a good portion of the Australian population live that it is difficult to wrest control from them. Not impossible - just difficult.
Back in Nov 07 when Labor led by Kevin Rudd swept to power, they held 88 seats of the 150, and quite a few of them were extremely safe. The Aug 2010 election saw Labor lose 16 of those seats, and the upcoming election will see them lose probably even more.
The Australian Electoral Commission classify seats into the following ;
Marginal.........held by less than 6.0% margin
Fairly safe......held by between 6.0% and 10.0% margin
Safe..............held by between 10.0% and 20.0% margin
Very Safe.......held by more than 20.0% margin
A table of the seats for each party broken down into each category is below ;
Seat Type.......Labor.....Liberal.....LNP.....Nats.....Green....CLP.....WA Nat.....Indys...Totals
Marginal.............26.........16........9..........0..........0..........1.........1......... ..3.........56
Fairly safe..........16.........12........2..........1..........1..........0.........0............0........32
Safe..................23........15.........8..........4..........0..........0.........0........ ...2.........52
Very Safe............6..........1..........1.........1..........0..........0.........0............1........10
Total.................71.........44........20........6..........1..........1..........1............6.......150
*** Note : Since the election, 2 members have moved over to the independent cross benches. Thomson in the seat of Dobell has been kicked out of the Labor caucus and is now one of the marginal independents. Slipper is also not counted as a Liberal anymore and is also one of the marginal independents.
Very Safe category
Labor have a commanding lead of 6 to 3. These won't change, no matter what happens.
The only thing to note really about the "very safe" category is that Tony Windsor, the independent from New England I would not classify now as very safe. He could very easily lose his seat given his decison to back Labor.
Safe category
The coalition currently have a slight lead of 27 to 23. These will likely change at the next election, you will see a few more added to the coalition ranks, probably having moved up from the fairly safe category, and a few less from Labor move down into the fairly safe category.
Rob Oakeshott, the independent from Lyne is in the "safe" category now, but is also likely to suffer a large backlash from disaffected conservative farmers in his electorate.
Fairly Safe category
Labor currently have a slight lead of 16 to 15. We are likely to see big movements in this category. Labor could be reduced down to only 4 or 5 in this category, with quite a few ministers under threat. Anna Burke, Sid Sidebottom, Kate Fisher, Chris Bowen and Robert McClelland could all lose their seats.
The Greens only member is also likely to lose his seat, wiping the Greens Party from the lower house altogether, with the coalition preferencing Labor ahead of the Greens in the seat of Melbourne.
Marginal category
At 26 seats each, it's line ball currently, but this is where most of the action and movement will take place. With the category being defined as less than a 6.0% margin, and the polls currently predicting a 56 / 44 swing in 2PP terms, don't be surprised to see nearly all of these seats being lost by Labor.
Labor have 7 or 8 big guns in this category, with quite a few ministers under threat.
Treasurer and deputy PM Wayne Swan holds with only 3.2% and is likely to be kicked out.
Leader of the House and Transport Minister Anthony Albanese holds with only 4.2%, but his nearest opposition is a Greens candidate, so he may actually hold Grayndler.
Deputy Leader of the House and Defence Minister Stephen Smith holds with only 5.9%, and could very well lose his seat in the mining state of WA after big spending cuts in his portfolio.
Craig Emerson the Trade Minister.....after his dreadful performances both on and off camera, the sooner the nation rids themselves of him the better.
Peter Garrett....someone who had such high ideals and so much potential ended up being a fizzer in the Labor Party, a real under achiever.
Both Slipper and Thomson are likely to not be returned. It wouldn't surprise me if they both fail to get pre-selected in their seats, and so won't even get an opportunity to contest the election....although Fisher is vowing to run against Mal Brough, who I understand has been endorsed as the new LNQ candidate for Fisher, Slipper's current seat.
Good analysis if an election was held yesterday. Have you considered standing Dazz? You're very passionate.
While I don't expect Labor to win the next election, it's so far away, who knows?
I know you don't like that peoples voting intentions are mostly determined by the leader - but they are. Given the dislike of Abbott as the leader, the Libs would be best to send him on a holiday during the campaign. The same could probably be said for Juliar.
I suspect that the libs will not be able to maintain the rage against the CT for over a year and that at election time it will be largely forgotten...
True - anything can happen over time....including ill health. If one of the Labor members fell ill, this would have big consequences....not that anyone would wish that of course, but there are a few Labor members who aren't in pristine condition.
If anyone from the coalition fell ill, it wouldn't affect the numbers.
Nah.....it's a joke. I'm happy out here in never never land. Can you imagine the stuff they'd need to go thru. No thanks !!
I'm not convinced of that, there certainly isn't much tangible evidence to decide that one way or the other. Although, I spoke with at least 3 people yesterday who all casually said the same thing...."I'd vote for the Libs in a heartbeat if Abbott wasn't the leader." They all wanted Turnbull.
I'm of the opinion that policy should dictate, not the Leader. The grassroots members of the party did not like one bit the direction Turnbull was taking, agreeing with Labor and Greens at every turn. He only just got turfed out (42 vs 41) but that vote within the coalition ranks, centred around the Carbon tax and the ETS had massive flow on effect, eventually being the downfall of both Turnbull and Rudd.....and probably Gillard.
Leaders do count for quite a bit, but it's the policies that affect the general population. As we've seen with the Rudd / Gillard changeout, nothing has changed for the population......the same policies that are so disliked are still in place.
I don't agree with that regarding Abbott. He really stepped up to the plate in 2010 and was extremely disciplined and focussed during the campaign and was a big asset. He stripped 16 seats off Labor and came within a whisker of winning Govt for the Libs, which was well and truly above anyone's expectations when Labor held 88 seats. He earnt himself considerable 'election capital', which is the rarest of commodities in those circles. Howard had buckets of it by winning 4 elections on the trot. That's why he hasn't been challenged in the past 2 years.
Yes, Julia is a handbrake. We saw that in the Qld state election when Anna Bligh told her to stay away, and here in WA, the state Labor leader Mark McGowan has also told her to butt out, she is considered pure poison over here, even by her own party.
We'll see. I think we've only had 35 days of it coming in, and no-one as yet has felt it bite down hard. Come the election, the majority of the passed on costs will have filtered down to the taxpayer and they'll be able to accurately judge for themselves what the cost impact will be.
Of course, I fully expect the Libs to over-emphasise any bad fallout from the Carbon Tax, and I fully expect every Labor person to be running around constantly denying any impact whatsoever.
The good thing is, the people by that stage will be able to see for themselves, rather than have to rely on some Treasury 'model', or some other expert's predictive computer model.
That real life impact will either fizzle or go ballistic.....we have to wait and see what the real impact, rather than the predicted impact will be cost wise. From an environmental point of view, I'm sure Bayview can get his thermometer out and let us know how much cooler the planet is.
LOL!
I loved your post BTW.
Incidentally; Melb has had wettest start to winter in 16 years.
But the rain is warmer!?
LOL!
I loved your post BTW.
Incidentally; Melb has had wettest start to winter in 16 years.
But the rain is warmer!?
Yes and I read in the news that the BOM are forecasting an El Nino weather pattern forming for October. A couple of years of drier conditions after the good rains usually results in lots of fuel for bushfires.
and fuel for climate change proponents no doubt.
yet it's all just cycle.
Cant have many years of wet then no dry can you...?
We are due a drought actually.
Which in turn release between 10% and 30% of Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions, depending on who you believe.
As such, will bushfires be paying the carbon tax (sorry, price)?
maybe evand could reply to this, instead?
Ralph Blewitt back in the country to bring down Gillard / Wilson and the AWU, to testify in front of AFP.
Labor for the win!
Ralph Blewitt back in the country to bring down Gillard / Wilson and the AWU, to testify in front of AFP.
Labor for the win!
maybe evand could reply to this, instead?
Ralph Blewitt back in the country to bring down Gillard / Wilson and the AWU, to testify in front of AFP.
Labor for the win!
i've only read 2 pickering articles... both linked from somersoft, I think. I find it hard to read. So negative and bitchy... and far too many conspiracy theories for me. lots of implications and no facts. I'm sure some of it is true, but I just cant take it seriously.
I give that dumb article about as much credibility as i give Pickering in general. And the bogans that buy his stories. He's just slightly to the left of Adolf Hitler.
And Penny, calling it a conspiracy theory is a compliment. Its just ridiculous fiction.
No proof, no credibility, Just a story.
By the way, loved these pics.
And Penny, calling it a conspiracy theory is a compliment. Its just ridiculous fiction.
No proof, no credibility, Just a story.
By the way, loved these pics.
Attachments
but aside from making it about personal attacks and cynical undertones, can you at least comment on it constructively?
like, in a way where you would pretend that i vote; and am a swinging one at that..... win me over.
ummmm.......no. I wouldnt do it the justice that a constructive critique would lend it.
*sigh*
well, i tried to engage you in a proper debate, but alas, you appear to have dragged it down to your level and beaten me with experience.
well done. game - evand.
i retire.
well, i tried to engage you in a proper debate, but alas, you appear to have dragged it down to your level and beaten me with experience.
well done. game - evand.
i retire.
..quote..
Gillard, as Prime Minister, was hounded by Blewitt for money he is still owed, about $12,000. Gillard responded with the threat, “Disappear or I will get the AFP on to you!”
That's tell a lot about freedom of speech in this Australia,..
While I do understand your position and frustration, ranting, swearing blogs that rely on insults and cheap characterisations are not really worth the time of arguing with.
It's like a rational conservative engaging in a debate with a hard line leninist student blogger. Just not worth the time. You provide dates and information and they will just make something up.
