Will Australia's next property boom be the greatest boom we've ever seen?

[stumunro]

I'll take you up on that shadow always looking for more to read

 

[yieldmatters]

And you have to admit, YM, we're starting to turn YOU on how property CAN (under certain circumstances, and you're more strict about this than I am) keep rising. (Namely, suburb creep, redevelopment and a decrease in property size).

True - I've actually learned a lot.

 

[hobo-jo]

Post yesterday on Shadow's forum (Australian Property Forum):

Sydney house prices will not hit $1M before 2015, and I have never claimed they will.

I always say 'approach' $1M by 2015 (exact day in 2015 never specified) because that is the right way to make predictions. It would be pretty silly to try to predict an exact price and exact day six years in advance. Call it 'rubbery' if you like, but that's the prediction. I often give a range of values when making predictions, and I think that's the best way to do it.

My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified).

And yet here we see a post from 2008:

I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction, simply based on extrapolating the median price lines against the trendlines, following similar peaks and dips to previous booms...

Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000
Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

I guess honesty is not one of Shadow's strong points when making his case

 

[DEC]

Post yesterday on Shadow's forum (Australian Property Forum):


And yet here we see a post from 2008:



I guess honesty is not one of Shadow's strong points when making his case

Wow, you're a bit scary hobo

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

Post yesterday on Shadow's forum (Australian Property Forum):







And yet here we see a post from 2008:



I guess honesty is not one of Shadow's strong points when making his case

Hey Hobo - are you a member of APF? Cheers.

 

[oracle]

Post yesterday on Shadow's forum (Australian Property Forum):







And yet here we see a post from 2008:



I guess honesty is not one of Shadow's strong points when making his case

Trying to precisely predict future events is near impossible because there are 100s of market forces behaving in a way which are out of your control.

I might be wrong, but if my memory serves me well I think you have also made some predictions in the past on Gold trading at $2000 by end of last year and get to $5000 in near future.

Some other bold predictions made by ppl on the forum, US double dip recession last year, Australian property to fall by 40%, AUD to fall to 65cents, ASX to fall to 3200 etc etc. none of which has happened.

If you ask me, trying to predict the future is a losers game. Instead better to focus on improving your investment skills. I read this somewhere 'It is ok to be approximately right than precisely wrong' in the world of investment.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[hobo-jo]

Wow, you're a bit scary hobo
http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/7/2/57aca4c4-43ca-4e4c-928d-fd8f191330dd.jpg

lol I check into APF every few days to read Shadow's antics, his squabbling does provide some level of entertainment...

Hey Hobo - are you a member of APF? Cheers.

I'm not that concerned about my privacy, but given the actions of the trolls (e.g. back in GH PC days they got the work details of a forum user and started harassing him at work until he stopped posting) that run the forum I would prefer to keep my personal details (IP address, etc) private, so no I'm not a member there.

 

[hobo-jo]

Trying to precisely predict future events is near impossible because there are 100s of market forces behaving in a way which are out of your control.

I might be wrong, but if my memory serves me well I think you have also made some predictions in the past on Gold trading at $2000 by end of last year and get to $5000 in near future.

Below are my predictions at the start of 2011 for 2011. Gold, Silver and property I got almost bang on, Gold stocks I was way off. I'm sure I've had quite a few predictions wrong, but I don't lie about the fact like Shadow appears keen to do.

I think Gold is heading to US$3000-5000 by the end of the bull market (IMO within next 2-3 years), potentiall higher.

I agree with you that the many forces at work in the market make accurate predictions on a consistent basis impossible, it's just a bit of fun really.

January 2011 Predictions:

Gold: In my opinion Gold will continue the trend and rise in 2011. For a repeat of the % gain we saw in 2010, Gold would have to close 2011 at over $1800. Whether we see Gold close 2011 at those sorts of prices I'm not sure, but would not be surprised to see Gold spike that high in the first half of the year. My prediction is that Gold closes 2011 at over US$1600, likely with a spike to US$1800+ at some point during the year.

Silver: I would suspect the next major resistance will be at the 30 year nominal highs (around US$50). My prediction is that Silver will surpass and close the year above $40 in 2011 and possibly spike to over $50 at some point during the year (likely in the first half).

Gold Stocks: I expect that the HUI and other Gold indexes will continue their rise and will outperform the metals themselves. I think the juniors will continue to outperform the majors. My prediction is we will see HUI over 800 and the XGD over 10,000 at some point during 2011.

Property: Without changes to interest rates I suspect we will see nationwide falls of 2-4%. With at least 2 increases to the cash rate I suspect prices would be more likely to fall 4-6% or greater.

http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/01/gold-silver-stocks-property-predictions.html

 

[DEC]

I'm sure I've had quite a few predictions wrong, but I don't lie about the fact like Shadow appears keen to do.

Where's the lie, I don't see it and why are you so determined to muddy shadows reputation?
It all seems rather juvenile and vindictive

 

[Token Funder]

Wow, you're a bit scary hobo

Posting an image of Pedo Bear is a bit off colour......

 

[hobo-jo]

Where's the lie, I don't see it and why are you so determined to muddy shadows reputation?
It all seems rather juvenile and vindictive

I know for a fact that Shadow is involved with the troll club whose actions destroyed two Australian housing forums, have repeatedly stolen the online identities (including mine) of others to further their cause and generally harassed people in their online and offline life, so yes I guess you could say I'm a little vindictive

 

[DEC]

Posting an image of Pedo Bear is a bit off colour......

Never heard of it before and brown is the right colour for a bear

 

[DEC]

I know for a fact

Is that right

 

[Token Funder]

Never heard of it before and brown is the right colour for a bear

One should know ones Memes if one wants to avoid being accused of inferring things one doesn't intend to.

Pedo bear

 

[DEC]

One should know ones Memes if one wants to avoid being accused of inferring things one doesn't intend to.

Some of us have more important things to do with our time than study memes
The text said what I meant, if you chose to read something else into it for whatever reason that's your problem.

 

[Token Funder]

Some of us have more important things to do with our time than study memes
The text said what I meant, if you chose to read something else into it for whatever reason that's your problem.

Obviously there's no obligation to understand the images you post, it's probably just a good idea.

 

[Deltaberry]

The biggest boom was Marvellous Melbourne's 1800s boom during the gold rush which made it the second richest city after London in the British Empire. That was of course followed by a great crash.

 

[Piston Broke]

lol I check into APF every few days to read Shadow's antics, his squabbling does provide some level of entertainment...

I did check that place out, it seems all the posters with vested interests have moved there to continue their never ending boom in prices and pushing their cart onto noobs.

 

[Shadow]

Post yesterday on Shadow's forum (Australian Property Forum)

LOL, hobo-jo, you really need to get a life.

BTW the fact that I post on APF sometimes doesn't make it 'my' forum.

 

[Shadow]

I know for a fact that Shadow is involved with the troll club whose actions destroyed two Australian housing forums, have repeatedly stolen the online identities (including mine) of others to further their cause and generally harassed people in their online and offline life, so yes I guess you could say I'm a little vindictive

What a load of nonsense.

Is that why you keep writing lengthy rambling blogs about me?

This is very sad... I'm actually starting to worry about you...