will the melbourne market crash soon?
- Thread starter very_ready
- Start date
You are a paid up member of the liberal party no doubt. great stuff.
How long will it take you to pay of your mortgage? 30 years? Doesnt mean you are bankrupt!
Or put another way. How long will it take? Quicker than my neighbours and thats all that counts.
Definitely agree. Ask me I'm an accountant.
No, not a liberal stooge. I really don't think you are an economist. You vote Green, and it seems you get most of your information (base on your previous posts) from tabloid papers.
If you were an economist, you would understand that the $50b/yr deficit now under Rudd (and up to $250B debt in years to come), eventually will need to be payed back.
OMG, clearly they haven't taught you economists the basics about good and bad debt. The mortgage is a good debt. Rudd $11b handout are like a credit card. The money went to China, etc. The bill remains.
$2.5b + $1B fix on batts. $16B ($8b wasted on schools, because of the rorts). All this is bad debt that tax payers have to pay eventually.
PS: we probably won't be paying ANYTHING off, anyway. Rudd will just sell bits of Australia to the chinese to pay off his hugh credit card debt. Get the difference, Mr Economist.
Like the NSW state government going to the "pawnbroker" to sell public assets, so they can pay off their hugh credit hard debts as well.
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you know i was just thinking , i have posted on this forum that nothing can stop this price surge, of housing prices, but there is one thing that will cause kaos, and although my thoughts are very left feild thinking, BUT! that the media.
SHhhhhh, keep it quiet, but if the media all of a sudden announced that property is going to fall 30% next month, we have a blood bath on our hands, because some
inteligent folk believe what they read.
SHhhhhh, keep it quiet, but if the media all of a sudden announced that property is going to fall 30% next month, we have a blood bath on our hands, because some
inteligent folk believe what they read.This insanity is temporarily wrecking melb resi real estate as a true investment class.
Seems that people are now buying on 2.5% net yields. Crazy. Wonder when it will be +ve and pay its own way? 2030?
Happily chose other asset classes thanks (CIP and shares, and even resi IP in other cities)!!
Feel sorry for younger people who are trying to get a foothold though and are not creative enough to buy in other markets and rent in Melb instead.
Seems that people are now buying on 2.5% net yields. Crazy. Wonder when it will be +ve and pay its own way? 2030?
Happily chose other asset classes thanks (CIP and shares, and even resi IP in other cities)!!
Feel sorry for younger people who are trying to get a foothold though and are not creative enough to buy in other markets and rent in Melb instead.
I can tell by your tone that you are quite emotional. Constant ranting about the fact i vote green, keep using the emotive language like 'Mr Economist' etc etc. Why take evrything so personally?
maybe you should get a hobby and dont fret so much about incidentals. Politics is not something to get worked up about. No system is perfect. be happy you live in a great country and get on with it!
I disagree strongly with aussierogue's political preferences - but thats neither here nor there - but I agree 100% with what he has said in respect of his economic analysis above.
I suspect that those arguing also have a different political viewpoint but have a very shaky understanding of fiscal policy and economic effects thereof.
I suspect that those arguing also have a different political viewpoint but have a very shaky understanding of fiscal policy and economic effects thereof.
craigb, I think that already happened when the media reported Glenn Stevens saying he would raise rates till we're all hurting and full of regret ( paraphrasing ). But while there are eleven people vying for every ten houses, and the econemy is ok, I dont see it changing. People are more scared of being forever houseless or missing out on the boom, than they are scared of a crash.
). But while there are eleven people vying for every ten houses, and the econemy is ok, I dont see it changing. People are more scared of being forever houseless or missing out on the boom, than they are scared of a crash.craigb, I think that already happened when the media reported Glenn Stevens saying he would raise rates till we're all hurting and full of regret ( paraphrasing
give it a few more rises.
We're staring at 1 - 1.5% more over the next 12 - 18 months.
On the upside if fundamentals are as stong as people suggest (i.e. 11 ppl for 10 houses, etc..) rents can only go up up up.
@Trogdor, sure I dont dissagree that rate rises will slow prices down, but only temporarily. Ian MacFarlane (previous reserve governor) said all the same things as Stevens while raising rates in 2003, prices went sideways for a while, but look where we are now. Raising rates cannot be a fix for the combination of two reasons. They cannot be kept permanantly high, and while ever they are high they slow the building of new housing which is needed to drive prices down.
My guess is that Stevens knows this, and thats why he decided to run it in the media instead of just raising rates alone.
My guess is that Stevens knows this, and thats why he decided to run it in the media instead of just raising rates alone.
I am not a Labor voter, not that there is much difference between the two major parties. Now that we have got that out of the way, you could show some responsibility by giving more meaning to those figures by measuring them as a % of GDP. Not that you would know! Stop being an alarmist - after years of good economic policy under the Howard government, the sort of debt we are taking on now is minuscule. There are times when a government must spend more than it earns. Go Google "John Maynard Keynes". In any case, I can't see any more need for deficit spending for awhile - the economy is more than buoyant.
Whist out two major political parties are similar in some ways, there is one major difference.
One side is financially responsible, the other side is financially reckless. Endless borrowings for a few decades (without generating any worthwhile assets) will see us ending up like the Greeks.
One side is financially responsible, the other side is financially reckless. Endless borrowings for a few decades (without generating any worthwhile assets) will see us ending up like the Greeks.
You may have it right. There is a whole school of thought that believes that economics is not driven by numbers but by mass psychology.
Agreed.
Borrowing excessively to allow people who aren't pulling their weight to enjoy life will send us down the debt spiral, and it'll just make things worse later down the track when the debt bubble pops; the government defaults on its debt obligations; our credit rating plummets as a country and foreign investors blacklist this place as an investment thesis altogether.
Governments need to make some 'hard' decisions, preserve their cash (rather than splashing it out to dead people and those who have migraetd overseas) and unfortunately let those who cannot keep up be washed out. Throwing good money after bad seeds just means you end up with no money and no trees in the forest 30 years later.
Unfortunately because of the way the political system is, governments are focused on short-term goals of trying to get re-elected three years later. No one is able to make hard decisions because of that.
Borrowing excessively to allow people who aren't pulling their weight to enjoy life will send us down the debt spiral, and it'll just make things worse later down the track when the debt bubble pops; the government defaults on its debt obligations; our credit rating plummets as a country and foreign investors blacklist this place as an investment thesis altogether.
Governments need to make some 'hard' decisions, preserve their cash (rather than splashing it out to dead people and those who have migraetd overseas) and unfortunately let those who cannot keep up be washed out. Throwing good money after bad seeds just means you end up with no money and no trees in the forest 30 years later.
Unfortunately because of the way the political system is, governments are focused on short-term goals of trying to get re-elected three years later. No one is able to make hard decisions because of that.
