will the melbourne market crash soon?

[WinstonWolfe]

you criticise other economic systems yet have no faith in your own. do you support the free market, or perhaps or we should have all property rights vested in the state? Ruddy seems to really have a handle on things and I reckon he could do a much better job than you or I

I've spoken with 3 govt and 2 private town planners in the last 3 weeks, so I'll respectfully disagree that property is a free market, just as population growth isn't a free market.

Supply is constricted, in large part to fund govt employees who don't understand the time value of money, the risk of time, and the efficient allocation of capital.

Yes, Ruddy is getting it all his own way....and just to keep count......

- more cue jumping economic opportunitists arriving on boats...a few burnt and drowned for their trouble...and a few navy staff permanently traumatized and off on sick leave.
- laptops for everyone....until the batteries run out.....can't wait to see how that improves Julia's naplan results.
- exceptional value for money with the school building stimulus.
- Vendor's grant for house sales to FHBs.
- roof insulation to reduce the highest OECD death rate from heat exhaustion and frost bite.
- hot water system rebates for those who like to indulge in 10 minute showers.....but paid for by removing solar heating rebates
- tax payer funded depreciating assets (business vehicles) manufactured offshore. just what companies needed to make them more productive and provide more jobs.
infrastructure sell off to Canadian teacher pension funds.
- hundreds of millions spent on emissions control policy, rewriting policy, selling policy to electorate, traveling to Europe to talk policy.....finding out that particular marxist utopian bent doesn't work either.
- public debt that won't get paid off until 2013, neh 15, neh 17....
- on again off again firb regulations.
- on again off again illegal migrant detention centres.
- improving diplomatic relations with India
- knocking back SE Qld's only planned new dam.
- giving us a minister for Bilbies
- giving us a minister for population, because it is too hard to understand or deal with otherwise.
- borrowing from future tax revenue to stimuate the economy while simultaneously the RBA is putting up interest rates to slow it down.
- hey can't wait to see how much the fed funded hospitals save us...
- and hows' the aboriginal housing going?

- at least Rudd stopped dead Aboriginal child abuse cos I haven't heard it mentioned since Mal Brough disappeared....must have been the apology that fixed it.....

 

[Ausprop]

well I agree with most of your points and yes it is a shambles and a terrible wasted opportunity for this country. let's hope we don't suff the next boom up as badly, if there is one, which it seems there is

 

[The_Bludger]

I've spoken with 3 govt and 2 private town planners in the last 3 weeks, so I'll respectfully disagree that property is a free market, just as population growth isn't a free market.

Supply is constricted, in large part to fund govt employees who don't understand the time value of money, the risk of time, and the efficient allocation of capital.

Yes, Ruddy is getting it all his own way....and just to keep count......

- more cue jumping economic opportunitists arriving on boats...a few burnt and drowned for their trouble...and a few navy staff permanently traumatized and off on sick leave.
- laptops for everyone....until the batteries run out.....can't wait to see how that improves Julia's naplan results.
- exceptional value for money with the school building stimulus.
- Vendor's grant for house sales to FHBs.
- roof insulation to reduce the highest OECD death rate from heat exhaustion and frost bite.
- hot water system rebates for those who like to indulge in 10 minute showers.....but paid for by removing solar heating rebates
- tax payer funded depreciating assets (business vehicles) manufactured offshore. just what companies needed to make them more productive and provide more jobs.
infrastructure sell off to Canadian teacher pension funds.
- hundreds of millions spent on emissions control policy, rewriting policy, selling policy to electorate, traveling to Europe to talk policy.....finding out that particular marxist utopian bent doesn't work either.
- public debt that won't get paid off until 2013, neh 15, neh 17....
- on again off again firb regulations.
- on again off again illegal migrant detention centres.
- improving diplomatic relations with India
- knocking back SE Qld's only planned new dam.
- giving us a minister for Bilbies
- giving us a minister for population, because it is too hard to understand or deal with otherwise.
- borrowing from future tax revenue to stimuate the economy while simultaneously the RBA is putting up interest rates to slow it down.
- hey can't wait to see how much the fed funded hospitals save us...
- and hows' the aboriginal housing going?

- at least Rudd stopped dead Aboriginal child abuse cos I haven't heard it mentioned since Mal Brough disappeared....must have been the apology that fixed it.....

Well said, however what's our alternative? Without Johnny and Pete, the Libs have no idea.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Well said, however what's our alternative? Without Johnny and Pete, the Libs have no idea.

I have to agree......Tony Abbott is a worry.....nothing subtle about his manner, insight, or intellect at all.

And they didn't have the wisdom/foresight/political savvy to map out a future master plan/vision for the next 50 years and inspire the nation with it....which is what a lot of people are looking for, I think.
They just don't seem in touch with the public mood.
They really could have got the country onto a strong footing in the time they were in power.

My preference would have been Costello, then Turnbull.
I think Costello would have risen to the occasion. but he is obviously a complex person.

It's a pity more capable people get quashed by the power mongering and small mindedness intrinsic to political parties. I thought about taking a more active role in local Liberal party affairs, but was underwhelmed with the conversation and vision of the power brokers.

 

[paul2299]

most auctions sold today in my area - Camberwel, Canterbury, Hawthorn

From what I have heard foreign buying in these areas peaked 6-12 months ago when the dollar was low (yuan pegged to USD). I doubt if you subtract the buyers now unable to buy it is going to have a substantial effect. Big media beat up well after the fact perhaps....

Now where is that elusive Mr 150. Even my mother is talking about Chinese looking people at auctions of 400k units, they've probably been here 20 years rather than people on a junket.

 

[andrew_de_a]

I agree with everything you have said!

 

[WinstonWolfe]

If I lived in China under a Communist regime, I'd want to get a lot of my wealth offshore too. From what I understand, Chinese property can only be bought on a 70 year lease basis by foreigners, not free title.....and I think that might apply to locals as well.

 

[Giddyup]

I've spoken with 3 govt and 2 private town planners in the last 3 weeks, so I'll respectfully disagree that property is a free market, just as population growth isn't a free market.

Supply is constricted, in large part to fund govt employees who don't understand the time value of money, the risk of time, and the efficient allocation of capital.

Yes, Ruddy is getting it all his own way....and just to keep count......

While you are at it... how about you criticise the government for negative gearing and discounts of CGT for property investors. Those two factors have pushed up the market more than anything else... but of course you wouldn't include that, because that is some government policy that you are benefiting from.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

While you are at it... how about you criticise the government for negative gearing and discounts of CGT for property investors. Those two factors have pushed up the market more than anything else... but of course you wouldn't include that, because that is some government policy that you are benefiting from.

30% of Aussies rented in 1972. guess what % rent today.

and how about considering some reasons people struggle to afford to buy property today compared to 1972.

In 1972, you had to
- live frugally and prioritize saving a deposit.
- get married or engaged so you had two incomes.
- often not own a car, and catch public transport.
- not have the phone at home.
- mobiles weren't invented, so they weren't an essential item.
- computers and the internet weren't invented so weren't essential.
- foxtel wasn't invented.
- eat out no more than 6 times a year.
- make your own clothes.
- make your own meals.
- make your lunch everyday.
- repair stuff when it broke.
- exercise in the park or local swimming pool rather than some designer gym.
- not drink regularly away from home.
- not buy coffee from cafes.
- buy a house 25km on the periphery of Brisbane, or buy a very modest unit closer to town.

Now, if you want to show me your budget, I'll show you how to change it to what mine was in 1977.

But that's only half of it. You had to actually work.......yeah I know...hard to believe.....not only that....you had to work full time!!!! who would have thought huh????

None of this taking gap years and changing your uni course as often as your underwear....then deciding to drop out of law to become an actor, before heading off OS to spend a couple of years smashed on drugs and booze.

Then I'll tell you why I am not happy about paying cgt, even 50% cgt.....because in 1972 there wasn't any cgt at all.

cgt was introduced in 1985, probably around the time you think property got expensive. so maybe we need to get rid of cgt so investors are motivated to build more property and reduce the undersupply problem.

Hey but then we still have to pay gst.....that wasn't around in 1972 either. that's stopped a lot of investors building new property too.

You wouldn't know negative gearing was around in 1972 I suppose. So, can't be negative gearing that caused the property boom can it.

You probably don't know either that many local govts, to increase their revenue, are front loading development costs for new sub divisions. Some lots near me have 30-50k go to the local council.

Have you asked yourself why govt hasn't dropped stamp duty substantially during your property bubble.

Now, be a good Aussie, toughen up, and get off to an Anzac Day dawn service.

 

[.toe]

WinstonWolfe I'd vote for you!

Oh and can I add this to your list, repayments on your Harvey Norman CC for your 46" plasma

A PM told me recently that Uni students make good tenants They're pay is not fully comitted to repaying CCs and new car loans. Apparently they're not yet corrupted

A fella I know reports on auction markets in Melbourne, speaks do dozens of agents every week. He doesn't believe foreign buyers make up more than 2% of the market. Yet the publication he works for surveyed agents on it, they say its 30%. How do you tell if a REA is lying?...

 

[Player]

Careful Mr. Wolfe.

I made similar comments in another thread about baby steps, starting small, how housing was never really affordable (until the prospective purchasers had a proper focus to buy and budget, not squander).........and I was shot down in flames by one poster being called pretentious. Moi

I was away at that time and now the thread is locked.

BTW, agree with all you've said. Kudos

 

[wealth101]

Plus there is also a "need" to go on round-the-world trip or at least oversea holidays

 

[Peter Parker]

30% of Aussies rented in 1972. guess what % rent today.

and how about considering some reasons people struggle to afford to buy property today compared to 1972.

In 1972, you had to
- live frugally and prioritize saving a deposit.
- get married or engaged so you had two incomes.
- often not own a car, and catch public transport.
- not have the phone at home.
- mobiles weren't invented, so they weren't an essential item.
- computers and the internet weren't invented so weren't essential.
- foxtel wasn't invented.
- eat out no more than 6 times a year.
- make your own clothes.
- make your own meals.
- make your lunch everyday.
- repair stuff when it broke.
- exercise in the park or local swimming pool rather than some designer gym.
- not drink regularly away from home.
- not buy coffee from cafes.
- buy a house 25km on the periphery of Brisbane, or buy a very modest unit closer to town.

And you'd have probably moved out of home, got married and had your first child by age 23.

A friend with not brilliant money habits (ie iPhone/car loan/eating out/must buy new) just bought his first place (40yo 3br house 27km from Melbourne at 60% of the Melbourne median price) at age 23, so it can still be done.

 

[fernfurn]

My daughter and her husband have bought and paid off their house in six years, only 15ks from Melb, he doesnt stint on his drinking and they have overseas trips every year and have renovated the bathroom and kitchen, laundry toilet fabulously.

 

[Player]

And you'd have probably moved out of home, got married and had your first child by age 23.

A friend with not brilliant money habits (ie iPhone/car loan/eating out/must buy new) just bought his first place (40yo 3br house 27km from Melbourne at 60% of the Melbourne median price) at age 23, so it can still be done.

Precisely, it can still be done, because your friend wasn't one of the vicitms crying " unaffordable market" from the rooftops like the brigade who not only must have it all now, but it must be within a 5-10 km rim of the CBD and aspire to buying their first home/house /unit in a price multiple of twice the median................so of course it's unaffordable to those masses.

Spider, your friend has started in exactly the manner that I mention. Where ever they can afford and can upgrade (if they elect to) as most of our past generations did.

Nothing wrong with having it all....however when the pockets aren't deep enough and the budgeting discipline shallow, some priority needs to be considered and a gradual process of gratification employed.

Good for your friend

 

[aussierogue]

I've spoken with 3 govt and 2 private town planners in the last 3 weeks, so I'll respectfully disagree that property is a free market, just as population growth isn't a free market.

Supply is constricted, in large part to fund govt employees who don't understand the time value of money, the risk of time, and the efficient allocation of capital.

Yes, Ruddy is getting it all his own way....and just to keep count......

- more cue jumping economic opportunitists arriving on boats...a few burnt and drowned for their trouble...and a few navy staff permanently traumatized and off on sick leave.
- laptops for everyone....until the batteries run out.....can't wait to see how that improves Julia's naplan results.
- exceptional value for money with the school building stimulus.
- Vendor's grant for house sales to FHBs.
- roof insulation to reduce the highest OECD death rate from heat exhaustion and frost bite.
- hot water system rebates for those who like to indulge in 10 minute showers.....but paid for by removing solar heating rebates
- tax payer funded depreciating assets (business vehicles) manufactured offshore. just what companies needed to make them more productive and provide more jobs.
infrastructure sell off to Canadian teacher pension funds.
- hundreds of millions spent on emissions control policy, rewriting policy, selling policy to electorate, traveling to Europe to talk policy.....finding out that particular marxist utopian bent doesn't work either.
- public debt that won't get paid off until 2013, neh 15, neh 17....
- on again off again firb regulations.
- on again off again illegal migrant detention centres.
- improving diplomatic relations with India
- knocking back SE Qld's only planned new dam.
- giving us a minister for Bilbies
- giving us a minister for population, because it is too hard to understand or deal with otherwise.
- borrowing from future tax revenue to stimuate the economy while simultaneously the RBA is putting up interest rates to slow it down.
- hey can't wait to see how much the fed funded hospitals save us...
- and hows' the aboriginal housing going?

- at least Rudd stopped dead Aboriginal child abuse cos I haven't heard it mentioned since Mal Brough disappeared....must have been the apology that fixed it.....

With due respect - you are painting an overly bleak picture.

Last time i looked australia avoided the gfc and we are now the 8th richest nation. We are the envy of the world in many respects and Rudd is seen as a great politician by many inclkuding Obama.

I can write a list of things at any moment in time for any government in any place of the world.

No systemk is perfect, no politican is perfect. When things dont seem right polies are easy targets.

I love ruddy (i voted green though). The best part as i can see it is that he seems genuine and capable - thats all I ask. The rest is just the cut and thrust of politics.

 

[andrew_de_a]

You think Rudd seems genuine? Are you sure you're talking about our pm?

 

[bluestorm]

We are the envy of the world in many respects and Rudd is seen as a great politician by many inclkuding Obama.

I love ruddy (i voted green though). The best part as i can see it is that he seems genuine and capable - thats all I ask.

Now there is a case for getting rid of compulsary voting. You can't be serious aussierogue. It amazes me that with all of Rudd's spin, and stuffups, there are still people other there who believe this.
Virtually every decision Rudd has made has had to be reversed due to incompetence. We will be paying for years to come for Rudds mis-management. You kids will likely still be paying off the hugh debt Rudd has managed to amass.
But the fact you votes Green explains everything.

Maybe it's Rudd's stuffups and backflips that you like, or the proposed internet cencership maybe (he's out of favor with Obama on that one by they way!).

We are the envy of the world, not because of Rudd, but because heading into the GFC, Australia, like most other countries didn't already have hugh debts going into it (but a surplus), so we were better placed to manage.

 

[aussierogue]

We have the lowest debt in the western world you whingers!

Economics is cyclical - we have deficitas then we have surpluses. Ask me im an economist!

 

[.toe]

aussierogue how long will it take to get back into surplus and what are the main obstacles you see, world growth, or local issues?