2011 to 2013 - the coming world depression ?

[perky29]

I did think Mr Spann was one of the better property promoters before hearing that... it has reduced my opinion of him by some degree. Maye his intended message was distorted by the poster a little - i certainly hope so.

And by the way, Harry Dent was one of the many fools that thought the US stockmarket boom in 2000 was entirely justified based on fundamentals. Have a read of his 'predictions' in 1999: http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/7.09/prophets.html?pg=3 . The US went into recession about a year later.

As I said in the original post - Peter said there would be a world-wide recession , or possible depression. Others here who went and saw him present will vouch for what he said.
Peter Spann is IMHO definitely one of the best property / shares presenters going around. Although he likes to brag a bit (and he has a right to ), he predicted many things years ahead -such as being 3 days off when the All ords would hit 5000 amongst other things. He bases his predictions on 12 year cycles, that have happened as far back as the early 1900's.
But everyone is entitled to their opinion

 

[The Y-man]

As I said in the original post - Peter said there would be a world-wide recession , or possible depression. Others here who went and saw him present will vouch for what he said.
Peter Spann is IMHO definitely one of the best property / shares presenters going around. Although he likes to brag a bit (and he has a right to ), he predicted many things years ahead -such as being 3 days off when the All ords would hit 5000 amongst other things. He bases his predictions on 12 year cycles, that have happened as far back as the early 1900's.
But everyone is entitled to their opinion

The other thing to keep in mind, is the point he made about IF he is wrong (which he says he could very well be) - the result: you miss out on a few years of growth. I'm happy to wear that risk, for the possiblity of having a great buying opportunity.

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[Andrew_A]

Its all from the book by Harry S Dent "The next great bubble boom - How to profit from the greatest boom in history 2005-2009"

Just look at the cycles and trends of all the things mentioned abve and its not hard to figure out that the above may happen. Be prepared!!!

Oscar

Oc1 my thoughts exactly, I was about to post how this seemed a close copy of Harry's views before I read your post.

I predict the market will continue to do what it's always done, more or less.

 

[Andrew_A]

Maybe

Will reserve more comment until I attend the Brisbane event.

Holding cash could potentially be the worst investment of all in inflationary times.

What happens to yields and prices with property during depressions? I'm not aware of what happened in Aus and the US during the 30's, perhaps a more knowledgable person could help with this?

Inflation is a silent thief if you don't know how to make it work for you, and considering what you would do if rates did indeed hit the teens again is a very valuable excersize imo. High inflation was one of the key drivers in the downfall of the Roman Empire and has been linked to the creation of wars throughout history as well.

It could well be true that engraving your name on gold bars and hiding them in your piggy bank could be a wise move. It's just that the 'gold will be good' view is such a widely held orthodoxy at the moment, almost a fervour, so it might be wise to think about what might happen if the market confounds most people, which it tends to do sometimes.

Peters promotional material for the update mentions some of his 'hits' from his last investor update rounds some years ago. I would be curious to find out the list of all his predictions as there is a clear assymetry in how we remember a forecasters predictions. One good hit outweighs a lot of misses. We have one or two in this forum who hang their hat on this bias.

In the meantime, think about different global scenarios and how they might affect you and invest anyway!

 

[stretchy]

The other thing to keep in mind, is the point he made about IF he is wrong (which he says he could very well be) - the result: you miss out on a few years of growth. I'm happy to wear that risk, for the possiblity of having a great buying opportunity.

Cheers,

The Y-man

My main concern was Peter presented in a way which implied he wasnt wrong - i.e. "this will happen in x years time, so do this". Thats the kind of behaviour that puts me off wealth promoters. If he did imply this was simply his personal opinion and stress the difficulty in long-range econmoic forecasting, then its not so bad. He is entitled to his opinion.

Its a little weird recommending cash with an inflation rate of 11% though. Its usually 'hard' assets (such as housing and precious metals) that benefit from periods of higher inflation since their value tends to increase as a result of the inflation.

 

[DavidMc]

We are already nearing the next 'great depression'... 1 in 5 people currently suffer from some form of mental illness in Australia...

 

[RichardC]

My main concern was Peter presented in a way which implied he wasnt wrong - i.e. "this will happen in x years time, so do this".

None of the commentators I respect give dates. It doesn't work that way. I suspect Peter has cobbled together the thoughts of people, some of whom I may have read, and misused the data so that he could make a dramatic presentation.

Think about the predictions, ignore the dates.

 

[House_Keeper]

Trying to guess the direction of something as complex as the world economy is plain silly IMHO. Its far better spending your time developing strategies on how to profit from growth rather than stockpiling gold and guns for the impending doom thats just-around-the-corner-promise-we-got-it-right-this-time predictions. As I mentioned in the gold thread, lots of people said the same thing about the US in 1990. They spent the next 10 years watching stocks go through the roof, sitting on the sidelines in defensive assets that went absolutely nowhere. I'm not predicting this will happen again but thats the point - prediction is next to useless. Show me someone who can predict the world economy to that degree and I will show you someone who doesnt need to hold investment seminars anymore. Deal in probabilities, not predictions. Its a much more balanced approach to investment, and doesnt leave you in a position where you bet the whole farm on something that never eventuates.

I agree with stretchy.

Anyone who claim to know what will happen in 5 years to something as complex as the world economy is typically some aspiring guru looking for media attention. The oldest trick in this game is to make lots of predictions, and to remind people 5 years later than one of the prediction you made back then was right, hoping that all the other predictions have been forgotten.

I thought that Peter Spann was one of the respectable wealth mentor. I am a bit surprised he is getting into this game.

Cheers,

 

[XBenX]

If people do honestly believe that a depression is around the corner I would like to know how many of you have taken out a position to support this belief.

The market doesnt have to go up in order to make money.

 

[RichardC]

If people do honestly believe that a depression is around the corner I would like to know how many of you have taken out a position to support this belief.

The market doesnt have to go up in order to make money.

In a depression, he who loses least wins. So I have positioned myself with this in mind. If I were already fully funded for retirement I would be even more defensive. But I don't believe the chances of a depression are above 20%.

If by this, "The market doesnt have to go up in order to make money." you are asking if we are short the market, it is far too early for that. And it is too early to switch to cash too. Besides cash would be destroyed in inflation, which is the more likely scenario.

It is not too soon to be buying some physical gold though. Inflation proof money! What other insurance is an increasing asset?

 

[MarkB]

My forecast for the economy in 5+ years time

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Ksdf8 923rm asdosdf wsdfo9 23ru89 qwdgui9q 3wemnqd wd pgj qgkyu wdfil saduiop24tr df89p234 qeg0 &^IOHJRn t90sdv 89PSDV. Frjdef8 wef9d fb9p wfopasd s fioqwern qerg0-q3gn df we weg90234tm devio2er efb2erf frbo[-q34t [p-wgfbo0q234t wbfrpq34 sdfb.

Bh;3rqerg qergiq3rgm edfl; qwefop3 wdf qe3;rth edgkl qwe[3t ergf.


That's my prediction for the economy in the years 2011 - 2013.

I have all confidence that is just as as accurate as any others currently being distributed.

Mark

ps. It says be wary of those promoting depressions for their own means.

 

[stretchy]

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Ksdf8 923rm asdosdf wsdfo9 23ru89 qwdgui9q 3wemnqd wd pgj qgkyu wdfil saduiop24tr df89p234 qeg0 &^IOHJRn t90sdv 89PSDV. Frjdef8 wef9d fb9p wfopasd s fioqwern qerg0-q3gn df we weg90234tm devio2er efb2erf frbo[-q34t [p-wgfbo0q234t wbfrpq34 sdfb.

Bh;3rqerg qergiq3rgm edfl; qwefop3 wdf qe3;rth edgkl qwe[3t ergf.

Mark

I agree with everything except the last point. That cant _possibly_ happen!

 

[see_change]

If people do honestly believe that a depression is around the corner I would like to know how many of you have taken out a position to support this belief.

The market doesnt have to go up in order to make money.

There are times when you can be pretty confident as to what is going to happen in the immediate future . I felt that way druing the phase we were buying properties in the last cycle and was prepared to go further out on a limb than at most other times.

I fairly confident about the stock market at this moment , but not confident enough to go out on a limb and risk doing serious damage.

If a depression is around the corner , I am prepared to the point where if we go under it would require a sesmic change in how the economy works to make it happen and even then I don't think it could happen .

See Change

edit as missed Pitt St's post somehow.

Mark , When is the book coming out ???

Can you reserve me a copy

 

[The Y-man]

If people do honestly believe that a depression is around the corner I would like to know how many of you have taken out a position to support this belief.

The market doesnt have to go up in order to make money.

We've started our bullion collection.
Started pumping money into hedge funds.

However, my understanding from Peter's presentaiton was of a fairly decent bull run up to late 2009 (after some volatility later this year)

We will probably cash out many of our long share positions by August (if not earlier), and heavy up again on weakness.

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[Andrew]

I saw the following in an invested post:

GV: Where will the persistent and very large U.S. external deficits lead us over time. Is there a limit on how much the external markets can absorb? One day will the US wind up owing several trillion dollars to both Japan and China, and does it matter?

DG: I think the most over-hyped fear in the world is that the US cannot continue to have large imbalance of trade and/or of budget deficits, for indeed we can and likely we shall. As long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency (and it will remain so as long as the US remains the world's dominant military power, for it is military power that protects, ultimately, the position of the reserve currency nation. Once military power dwindles, another reserve currency nation must arise to take the other's place. I do not see that happening in my lifetime), it will have the ability to run deficits on budget and trade forever. That is the lesson of history.

The interviewee is Dennis Gartman. Seems pretty relevant to this discussion.

I was at the Melbourne update and Peter's prediction of a coming depression
was at least partly based on the unsustainability of US foreign debt.

andy

 

[twodogs]

We've started our bullion collection.

Do you keep the bullion yourself (ie with the shotgun and cows) ?

How does the pricing work when you go to the bullion shop, is the current market price plus commisions or something ?

 

[grossreal]

hi Andrew
interesting snipet of information as there is no asia currency like the euro and if there was I wonder if that would change the money peoples mind on the all mighty dollar.
if this currency was to take in asia and indo china inc india and the pacific inc us that would be a currency that would dwalf the euro and the dollar.
oh and then the dollar would have to be traded from a negative position.
very interesting.
maybe john and the indonisians will have a open playing field for once as its one currency.
make trading alot easier
just a thought

 

[Keen]

Yes and on the 6th of the 6th 2006 (666) the world will end.

Please give me a break!

Keen

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Keen, I agree.

I can remember the 6th of the 6th 1966 (6666)! and from my recollection the world did not end.

Nor did it end on the 7/7/77, nor 8/8/88, nor 9/9/99 maybe it will happen on 10/10/10?? or the 11/11/11??? Then again maybe 12/12/12??

Or maybe the 13th.... ohh dear....maybe it will just continue.

The prophets/profits of doom and gloom have been with us for a long time. The dow was going to crash when it got to 3000 back in '91? according to one learned guru at the time. It was also crash time in '82 according to Joe Granville, the day before the end of the long bear market from '66-'82 in the Dow.

Anyone prepared to make predictions, with conviction, about the markets in 5-7 years time is just kidding themselves and hoodwinking the gullible.

bye

 

[topcropper]

Too right.

If Peter really did make such statements then I've lost some respect for him. You can make general comments about time frames and such, but it's not smart to put specific dates on these predictions.

See ya's.